股市小書生
價值投資
因為加國的RY和BNS銀行在最近一周都增加了紅利，所以我的養老金帳戶的紅利收入又增加了。我基本上也是按照DGI的投資思想和策略來安排自己的養老金投資。從紅利現金收入的角度，養老金帳戶的增長基本上是一條沒有任何波動的上升曲線。即使是在沒有紅利增長的期間，由於紅利的複利再投入，賬戶的現金收益也依然是一條不變的上升曲線，在加國的投資市場，這條上升曲線在過去的50，40，30，20，10，5，1年沒有任何的改變。
在之前的貼子中提到的投資者B的養老金帳戶，也同樣的存在著這樣的一條上升曲線，在過去的二十年裏，美國市場有二次大的市場波動，但是這二次波動對這條上升曲線的影響是微乎其微， 事實上，大的市場波動反而加速了B的曲線的上升高度和速度。
我寫這些帖子呢，是希望給一些不了解股市投資的人一些提示，看看股市投資者是如何理解股市和參與股市投資的。至於你有沒有能力理解，願不願意去學習股市投資，這完全是個人的選擇。老巴說過，價值投資的基本原則在70年前就已經公布於眾了，但是即使已經過去了那麽多年，也隻有少數人願意接受。
老巴：說起來也奇怪，人們對於“以40sen購買價值$1的資產”這個概念，不是一點就通，就是完全拒絕。如果一個人一開始就不接受這個概念，即使你跟談論好幾年，並拿出投資記錄給他看，他的想法還是不會改變的。他們就是沒有辦法接受。像Rick Guerin的例子，他沒有受過任何商學院的教育，卻能夠馬上明白這個概念，並在5分鍾內就開始運用它了。我從來沒有看過有一個人是經過十年時間才慢慢轉變成價值型投資者的。它與個人的IQ或教育背景沒有關係。它要不然就是馬上被領悟，不然就是永遠都不明白。
對於股市投資的學習不要強求，因為對一些人，確實是一輩子都不可能學會學好的，這與智商無關，這是一種與生俱來的天性。
在股市中，股票價格的波動總是最被關注和談論的。
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”- Warren Buffett
如果TD銀行的股票價格明天下跌50%， 我的投資帳戶就會有很大的帳麵波動， 按照目前的價格，也可以認為我損失了50%，參照最近的季報，TD的Earning Yield會是20%，去除紅利，TD的剩餘利潤可以回購12%的股票，這樣在5-6年的時間內，我將是TD唯一的股東，可以獨自擁有500億市值的TD（目前是108B市值），應該足以成為加國首富，所以我是非常希望我持有的TD股票能夠大跌的， 然後能一直待在那個低價位。當然，這裏的價格波動是市場引起的， 而不是公司的經營引起的。
Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. - Benjamin Graham
“If you’re right about the business, you’ll make a lot of money.” - Warren Buffett
經常有人會用日本過去二十年的經濟停滯來懷疑美加的市場未來，這裏我們可以聽聽老巴的意見。
Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida
In response to a question about Japan, Buffett mentions how most Japanese businesses produce low returns on equity, and how time works against you when you own low return businesses:
“Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity. They have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, or 6% returns on equity. It’s very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you’re in doesn’t earn very much money.”
老巴二十年前就說過投資日本不太容易。（即使是這樣，也有日本人在日本市場投資成功的。）
美加二國有比較成熟的市場體係，目前和今後比較長的時期會依然保持這一優勢。
TD 2006 - 2015 ROE
RY 2006 - 2015 ROE
WFC 2006 - 2015 ROE
Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result. - Charlie Munger
Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida
“We never buy a stock with a price target in mind. We never buy something at 30 and say ‘if it goes to 40 we’ll sell it.’… That’s just not the right way to look at a business.”
Buffett obviously does buy and sell stocks—and did much more of that in his early years—but the concept is to focus on stocks not as trading vehicles with price targets, but as businesses that produce cash flow for owners. Mr. Market will always be there offering prices that can be taken advantage of, but the mindset should be firmly focused on the fundamentals of the business and its future earning power, not on where the stock will go or when it will get there.
