股市小書生
價值投資
雖然是廢話，但有時候還是要不得不重複的說。
我不懂炒股，也從不炒股。我學習投資，也隻做投資。可能對許多人，炒股和投資是一回事，但我認為二者沒有任何的共同點。 如果你對股市的理解是“炒股“，很遺憾我們無法交流，因為我是真的不懂。我承認我的寫作能力一般，不少人無法理解我要談論的投資理論和投資邏輯，但我能力有限，隻能表示遺憾。
”股市小書生的投資理念也不是什麽新玩意。“ - 我沒有想到有不少人喜歡“新玩意”，我以為正確的投資基礎知識是永恒的，永不過時的，所以我願意學習已經存在了許多年的經典的價值投資理論。
用50分買1 元價值的投資概念會過時嗎？ 安全邊際的投資概念會過時嗎？
對於學習投資，有一個問題值得思考，為什麽股指長期總是漲的。這是個決定性的大方向的問題。
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. - Buy American. I Am. By WARREN E. BUFFETTOCT. 16, 2008
價值投資者一般不關注整體市場，老巴公開對整體市場發言就二次，上一次是警告2000年高科技泡沫。比較有意思的是，他一次警告股市太高了，一次提醒股市太低了。
我目前隻投資加國市場，原因我以前在大千寫過，我想美國市場應該由美國投資者談論， 但是大家的投資邏輯是相通的。
在投資加國的銀行股中，有一個問題引起了我的思考。在過去的10，20，30，40，50，100年，你在任何時候用任何價格買入任何一家加國的銀行股都掙錢，而且最佳的方式就是長期持有，還有加國的銀行股整體回報長期大幅度的超越加國指數。
我想知道為什麽所有的加國銀行股在過去50年，甚至100年能有這樣的投資表現。這絕不是巧合或運氣。
再說幾句廢話，有些人認為我是在鼓吹在高位買入銀行股， 我不想說些不文明的話，我隻想說是我寫得不好，所以你無法理解我的帖子，很遺憾。
加國銀行的商業模式分析是個比較大的話題，以後有機會再說。總之，我在思考以後，將加國的銀行股作為我的重要投資目標。我這裏談論的是加國市場上的加國銀行股的投資。美國銀行股我不太熟，但有一點，美加二國的銀行體係是不太一樣的，有些地方差異很大。在08危機中，加國銀行被業界認為是最安全的銀行，所以在美國市場上，TD將名字中的美國元素徹底去掉，BMO特意在名字最前麵加上BMO， 都是為了在美國市場上標榜自己是加國銀行，這都是市場宣傳，但是在08危機中，加國銀行確實表現不錯，在其他金融機構為生存而苦苦掙紮的時候。加國銀行在國內聯手消滅了幾乎所有的競爭對手（主要是美國公司），近一步壟斷國內市場，在國外大舉擴張，掠奪新的市場。即使是在危機中有重大損失的RY和CIBC，也同樣有能力進行幾十億規模的擴張，這說明加國銀行確實是有一些特別的地方。
因為有不少人拿Nortel說事，我談談我的想法。我個人的想法是，你應該願賭服輸，因為Nortel從未有過盈利，你是希望它將來可能盈利才投資的，結果沒有，所以損失了，但是如果它真的開始盈利了，你的回報也可能很好。這是個很公平的交易，你是在知道Nortel沒有任何盈利的前提下買入的。
價值投資者一般不投資科技類公司，因為這個領域不太適合價值投資者，你很難對科技做合理的估值。一般都是風險投資參與科技股，這裏的投資思想策略是不同的。
2011年，老巴印度之行的談話
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
朽哥說他一聽CNBC就頭痛，這說明朽哥其實是很有股市投資天賦的， 對於巴爺的投資訣竅，朽哥天生就懂。
假設我五年前買TD的10萬塊錢是借來的（其實我確實是借的。），我現在出售一半，可以拿回10萬，還有10萬TD股票，我用拿回的10萬買入RY， 等五年，差不多有一倍回報，出售一半，可以拿回10萬，還有１０萬ＲＹ股票。我再買入ＢＮＳ，等五年，差不多有一倍回報，出售一半，可以拿回１０萬本金，還有１０萬ＢＮＳ股票。再等１５年，ＴＤ２５ 年可以有２００萬市值，ＲＹ２０年１５０市值，ＢＮＳ１５年大概６０，７０萬。這裏我有多大的風險呢？
按照巴爺對市場波動的描述，上述的最初１５年，應該可以在３年裏完成，一年一個。但是我的實際經驗告訴我太難了，不太可能，因為加國的銀行股波動不夠大，特別是ＴＤ， ＢＮＳ和RY可能在2年內完成， 但TD不太容易，它的市場表現太強。
如果這三家銀行都破產呢？有這個可能，但我不考慮這個風險，因為當這三家銀行破產了，加國肯定也破產了，隻要我投資加國市場，無論我投什麽，我都是破產的命運，國家破產，我的麻煩遠遠比股市上的損失要大得多，加國銀行破產前美國銀行肯定早破產了，不是 你想逃就能逃得了的。從本金的角度，隻要不是在我完成最初的布局之前破產，其實我沒有什麽實際意義的損失。
Stock Market Returns Long Term
Monday, March 2, 2009
What I want to discuss today, is the long term implications of investing in the market. I was reading a book review of a new book called The Cure for Money Madness by Spencer Sherman. He talks about the predictability of US S&P 500. For every 10 year period, from 1926 to the end of 2008, this index had positive returns except for 2 years. For the 10 year period from 1929 to 1938, the return of -8.6% and the 10 years from 1930 to 1939 the return was -1%.
The 10 years decline in the stock market occurred during the most brutal years of the Great Depression. This was a time when the world's economy sank to its lowest point in recorded history. The heavy losses of the stock market crash give birth to the legendary image of investors jumping out of windows high above Wall Street. The losses in that market were very intense.
But another way of looking at this is that 97.3% of the time, the S&P 500 had positive returns for every 10 year period. Also, the S&P 500 had a higher return that one-month Treasury Bills 89% of the time. One-month Treasury Bills are about the safest investment. The S&P 500 also had returns higher than inflation 91% of the time.
What I want to turn to now is the TSX index. I have statistics for this index going back to 1957, the start of the index. See my spreadsheet at tsx.htm. If you look at the TSX index, the number of 5 year periods where the average yearly return on the index was negative is 2. These are the periods from 1970 to 1974 where it was -2.13 and from 1973 to 1977 where it was – 1.64. This means that for all the 49 5 year periods, the average yearly return was negative twice or 4% of the time. This also means that for these 5 year time periods, it was positive 96% of the time. There was no time period in the other periods where the average yearly return for the index was negative.
For the TSX, I also looked at how much of the time the return for the various periods TSX return was less than an average of 6% per year. For the 5 year periods, the 5 year average return was less than 6% for 16 periods or 33% of the time. Looking at the 10 year periods, the 10 year average return was less than 6% for 10 periods or 23% of the time. Looking at 15 year periods, the 15 year average return was less than 6% for 2 periods or 5% of the time. Looking at 20 year periods, the 20 year average return was less than 6% for 3 periods or 9% of the time. There were no other periods when the TSX return average per year less than 6%.
I also looked at the TSX index like Spencer Sherman for periods where the index return over the period was negative. For the 5 year periods, I found 3 times when the index declined over the 5 year period. The total 5 year return from 1969 to 1974 was -17.2%. The total 5 year return from 1972 to 1977 was -13.6%. The total 5 year return from 1997 to 2002 was -1.3%. There was only one 10 year period loss and that was from 1964 to 1974 and the loss was -1.1%.
The other thing we should consider is that dividends make up 30% of the TSX's total return on average. That means that the TSX total return is really 30% higher than shown by the index. So, if you invest in dividend paying stock, you can make very decent return over the long term. We need to keep this in mind when the stock market plunges as it has been doing of late.
待續
