【華盛頓郵報】發表著名文章：伊朗人民的聲音

文章標題：The Iranian People Speak (伊朗人民的聲音)

文章出處在此連接：The Iranian People Speak

By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty

Monday, June 15, 2009

The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide [[public opinion survey]] of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

伊朗總統選舉的結果可能反映出伊朗人民的意誌。很多專家所持觀點是現任伊朗總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德贏得的所謂 "勝利" 來自作弊和操弄，與此相反的是，我們在選舉前三周在伊朗全國進行的統計表明，總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德獲得超過三分之二的選民支持，這個數字還大於上星期五的選舉結果 (內賈德獲得大約百分之六十多點的支持票，金筆注)。

While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.

雖然西方媒體在選舉前夕從德黑蘭發回的報道顯示，總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德的主要競爭對手，米雅·侯薩因·姆薩維，獲得公眾的熱情支持，可我們在對伊朗三十個省份的樣本資料進行數理分析後發現，總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德的支持度遙遙領先。

Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

在伊朗很少進行過獨立和未經管製的全國統計。通常，選舉前舉行的民調是由政府管控，民調結果也經常遭到嚴肅質疑。但由我們這個非盈利組織在五月十一至五月二十日舉行的民調，是伊朗最近兩年舉行的第三次。我們是通過電話收集樣本，並在 Farsi 進行實地調查，這是由一家民調公司代辦。這家公司曾經在同一地區為 ABC 新聞和 BBC 工作，並為此獲得艾美獎。民調的資金來源是洛克費勒基金會。

The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi.

在我們選前的民調中，總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德存在眾多支持。在競選期間的一個例子是，米雅·侯薩因·姆薩維強調他的背景是占伊朗人口第二大的 Azeri 族人 (他不是第一大族波斯人) 用來號召 Azeri 族選民支持。而我們的民調資料顯示，即使在 Azeri 族人中，總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德仍占有二比一的優勢。

Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.

很多西方評論將伊朗的年輕一代以及網上一族當作這次選舉的異數。但是我們的民調發現，隻有三分之一的伊朗人上網瀏覽。而比起其他的年齡段，在十八至二十四歲的年齡段中，總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德獲得最強有力的支持度。

The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.

而且我們的民調還發現，米雅·侯薩因·姆薩維僅在唯一的一個團體，或者人群中，能夠領先或者抗衡總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德，那就是大學生和研究生，以及伊朗的 "高薪" 階層。在我們做民調期間，大約有三分之一的伊朗人還沒有決定投誰。但是我們發現，我們民調所獲得的選民分布勢態和伊朗政府公布的選舉結果相吻合。這一點似乎證明選舉結果被大量作弊操弄的可能性不大。

Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found simply reflected fearful respondents' reluctance to provide honest answers to pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For instance, nearly four in five Iranians -- including most Ahmadinejad supporters -- said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to elect Iran's supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote. Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the national economy. These were hardly "politically correct" responses to voice publicly in a largely authoritarian society.

一些人可能可以批評我們的民調結果是因為我們持支持總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德的立場，這使得被訪問者不敢透露他們的真實立場。但我們民調結果的真實性可以從被訪者對一係列更險惡的政治問題的回答中印證出來。比如，將近五分之四的伊朗人，包括幾乎所有的總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德的支持者，都表明他們希望政治體製改革，使他們有權選舉伊朗最高領導人 (目前最高領導人不是民選的)。同樣的，伊朗人視自由選舉和新聞自由為政府最首要責任，這一呼聲幾乎與發展國家經濟的要求持平。在這一點上，就根本反映出選民的回答不存在強權政治的陰影。

Indeed, and consistently among all three of our surveys over the past two years, more than 70 percent of Iranians also expressed support for providing full access to weapons inspectors and a guarantee that Iran will not develop or possess nuclear weapons, in return for outside aid and investment. And 77 percent of Iranians favored normal relations and trade with the United States, another result consistent with our previous findings.

確實來說，我們兩年來的三次民調都一致表明，超過百分之七十的伊朗人支持對伊朗進行完全核武檢驗，並保證和支持伊朗不發展和擁有核武器，用來作為交換條件獲得國際社會的援助和投資。

Iranians view their support for a more democratic system, with normal relations with the United States, as consonant with their support for Ahmadinejad. They do not want him to continue his hard-line policies. Rather, Iranians apparently see Ahmadinejad as their toughest negotiator, the person best positioned to bring home a favorable deal -- rather like a Persian Nixon going to China.

伊朗民眾視一個更為民主的體製，與美國關係正常化以及支持現任總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德並不存在矛盾。他們不希望他繼續堅持他目前的強硬政治路線。相反的，伊朗人視總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德為有手腕的談判者，視他最有可能為伊朗獲取最大利益，類似於當年尼克鬆總統訪問中國。

Allegations of fraud and electoral manipulation will serve to further isolate Iran and are likely to increase its belligerence and intransigence against the outside world. Before other countries, including the United States, jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent, with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted.

對伊朗選舉中存在作弊或者操弄的指控，有可能疏離伊朗，也可能使得它對外部世界存有敵意並強化它的立場。外部世界，包括美國，在指責伊朗總統選舉作弊前，應該先查看所有來源獨立的信息。事實真相可能就是伊朗人民期望總統艾哈邁迪·內賈德連任。

Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. The groups' May 11-20 polling consisted of 1,001 interviews across Iran and had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

作者之一，Ken Ballen 是 "明日不再恐怖" 組織主席，公眾谘詢中心，是一個非盈利組織。作者之一，Patrick Doherty 是 "新美國基金會" 美國戰略項目的執行人。該組織在五月11 - 20 伊朗全境舉行的民調有一千零一名受訪者，統計誤差為三點一個百分點。

For more on polling in Iran, read Jon Cohen's Behind the Numbers.

閱讀更多 Jon Cohen 有關伊朗選舉的文章，請點上麵的連接。

（金筆翻譯）