Seasonally Oil price (ZT)

 

All Star Charts

allstarcharts Follow Mar 04, 2015 at 3:02 PM

Crude Oil Enters Its Seasonally Most Bullish Period

It seems like the topic of conversation these days is whether or not Crude Oil has bottomed out. They made a big deal last week about Warren Buffett not knowing whether Crude has bottomed out. I don’t know either. And guess what? No one knows. The more confident someone is in suggesting that they do know, the higher the likelihood they are over compensating for some other limitations. No one knows what Crude Oil is going to do. Period.

We have many tools as market participants, particularly from a technical standpoint. One of these is our Seasonal Studies. Below is a seasonal chart of Crude Oil going back both 20 and 30 years. Historically speaking, the worst time of the year for Crude Oil is now behind us as we enter the most bullish period.

Is this reason enough to blindly go out and buy crude oil? Definitely not. But it is definitely something to consider before shorting it, or putting on a new long position. The wind is at the back of the bulls, seasonally speaking.

Crude Oil averages a 3.5% and 2.5% return in March and April, respectively.