美股大盤綜合信息報導
永遠敬畏市場：試用K線技術分析探尋美股大盤走勢Always trade what you see, instead of what you think!
/The-federal-reserve-system-and-its-function-3306001_final-7ed205221ee243f0bfa72b8b27226282.png)
2020年5月13日（星期三）, 美聯儲係統主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）應邀在彼得森國際經濟研究所組織的一次活動中對美國經濟的現狀發表講話。 演講定於當天格林尼治標準時間1300（美國東部時間上午9:00）開始。
FOMC主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）關於美國經濟狀況的演講–現場直播（2020年5月13日）
FOMC主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）演講原文
Web Reference :
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/jerome-powell-speech-transcript-may-13-coronavirus-address
Jerome Powell: (00:00)
The coronavirus has left a devastating human and economic toll in its wake as it has spread around the globe. This is a worldwide public health crisis. And healthcare workers have been the first responders showing courage and determination and earning our lasting gratitude. So have the legions of other essential workers who put themselves at risk every day on our behalf. As a nation, we have temporarily withdrawn from many kinds of economic and social activity to help slow the spread of the virus. Some sectors of the economy have been effectively closed since mid-March. People have put their lives and livelihoods on hold, making enormous sacrifices to protect not just their own health and that of their loved ones, but also their neighbors in the broader community. While we’re all affected, the burden has fallen most heavily on those least able to bear it.
冠狀病毒在全球範圍內蔓延，給人類和經濟造成了毀滅性的破壞。這是全球性的公共衛生危機。醫護人員一直是表現出勇氣和決心並贏得我們持久感激的第一響應者。其他每天都在冒著風險的重要工人隊伍也代表我們。作為一個國家，我們暫時退出了許多經濟和社會活動，以幫助減緩病毒的傳播。自3月中旬以來，部分經濟領域已經有效關閉。人們擱淺了他們的生活和生計，做出了巨大的犧牲，不僅要保護自己和親人的健康，還要保護更廣泛社區的鄰居的健康。雖然我們都受到影響，但負擔最重的是那些最無力承擔的人。
個人點評：開章明義，指出COVID-19乃是全球公共衛生危機。沒有哪個個人或國家可以置身其外。
Jerome Powell: (00:54)
The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War II. We are seeing a severe decline in economic activity and employment, and already the job gains of the last decade have been erased. Since the pandemic arrived enforced just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs. A fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others. Among people who were working in February, almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March. This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words as lives are upended and made great uncertainty about the future. This downturn is different from those that came before it. Earlier in the post World War II period recessions were sometimes linked to a cycle of high inflation followed by fed tightening.
這次衰退的範圍和速度尚無現代先例，比第二次世界大戰以來的任何衰退都要嚴重得多。我們看到經濟活動和就業急劇下降，過去十年的工作機會已經被抹去。自大流行於兩個月前實施以來，已有超過2000萬人失業。明天發布的一項聯邦調查反映出的發現與許多其他類似。在2月份工作的人中，年收入低於40,000美元的家庭中有將近40％的人在3月份失業。經濟命運的這種逆轉造成了一定程度的痛苦，這種痛苦很難用言語表達出來，因為人們的生活被改頭換麵，並且對未來充滿不確定性。這種低迷與之前的低迷不同。在第二次世界大戰後的早期，經濟衰退有時與通貨膨脹緊縮之後的高通脹周期有關。
個人點評：這次COVID-19疫情已經造成美國二次世界大戰一來嚴重的經濟衰退。大千投機抄底以及長期投資者要小心行事。COVID-19疫情已經完全改變了我們長期習慣的生活方式，未來充滿極大的不確定性。過去，美聯儲總是能用金融手段成功化解金融危機。但是，這一次美聯儲麵臨的挑戰不一樣。因為，僅僅靠印鈔殺不死COVID-19病毒。
Jerome Powell: (01:55)
The lower inflation levels of recent decades have brought a series of long expansions, often accompanied by the buildup of imbalances over time. Asset prices that reached unsupportable levels for instance, or important sectors of the economy, such as housing, that boomed unsustainably. The current downturn is unique in that it is attributable to the virus and the steps taken to limit its fallout. This time high inflation was not a problem. There was no economy threatening bubble to pop and no unsustainable boom to bust. The virus is the cause, not the usual suspects. Something worth keeping in mind as we respond. Today, I will briefly discuss the measures taken so far to offset the economic effects of the virus and the path ahead. Governments around the world have responded quickly with measures to support workers who have lost income and businesses that have either closed or seen a sharp drop in activity. The response here in the United States has been particularly swift and forceful.
近幾十年來通貨膨脹率較低，帶來了一係列長期擴張，通常伴隨著隨著時間的推移失衡的加劇。例如，資產價格達到無法支撐的水平，或者重要的經濟部門（例如住房）急劇上漲。當前的衰退是獨特的，因為它歸因於病毒以及為限製其影響而采取的步驟。這次高通脹不是問題。沒有經濟威脅泡沫破滅，也沒有不可持續的繁榮破滅。該病毒是原因，而不是通常的嫌疑人。在我們做出回應時，請牢記一些注意事項。今天，我將簡要討論迄今為止為抵消該病毒的經濟影響而采取的措施以及前進的道路。世界各國政府已迅速采取措施，為失去收入的工人和關閉或活動急劇減少的企業提供支持。美國在這裏的反應特別迅速和有力。
個人點評：暗示美股大盤超買。此次COVID-19疫情是觸發美國經濟活動大規模減少的主因。應對疫情，美聯儲的反應迅速及時。至於其它的政府部門，那就另當別論了。
Jerome Powell: (03:03)
Today, Congress has provided roughly $2.9 trillion in support for households, businesses, healthcare providers, and state and local governments, about 14% of GDP. While the Coronavirus economic shock appears to be the largest on record, the fiscal response has also been the fastest and largest response for any post-war downturn. Pardon me. At the fed we’ve also acted with unprecedented speed and force. After rapidly cutting the federal funds rate close to zero, we took a wide array of additional measures to facilitate the flow of credit in the economy, which can be grouped into four areas. First, outright purchases of treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities to restore functionality in these critical markets.
今天，國會已為家庭，企業，醫療保健提供者以及州和地方政府提供了大約$2.9萬億美元的支持，約占GDP的14％。盡管冠狀病毒的經濟衝擊似乎是有記錄以來最大的，但財政應對措施也是戰後經濟衰退中最快和最大的應對措施。對不起。在美聯儲，我們也以空前的速度和力量采取了行動。在將聯邦基金利率迅速降低至接近零之後，我們采取了一係列其他措施來促進經濟中的信貸流動，這些措施可以分為四個領域。首先，直接購買國債和機構抵押貸款支持的證券以恢複這些關鍵市場的功能。
Jerome Powell: (03:54)
Second, liquidity and funding measures, including discount window measures, expanded swap lines with foreign central banks and swift treasury backing to support smooth functioning in money markets. Third, with additional backing from the treasury, facilities to more directly support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments. And fourth, temporary regulatory adjustments to encourage and allow banks to expand their balance sheets, to support their household and business customers. The fed takes actions such as these only in extraordinary circumstances like those we face today. For example, our authority to extend credit directly to private non-financial businesses and state and local governments exists only in unusual and exigent circumstances and with the consent of the secretary of the treasury. When this crisis is behind us, we will put these emergency tools away.
個人點評：一旦COVID-19疫情過去，美聯儲將逐漸收回現在所有使用的經濟擴張工具。即美聯儲停止印鈔放貸等活動壓縮美聯儲資產負債表，其可能的後果是美元大漲，黃金大跌。
Jerome Powell: (04:53)
While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks. Economic forecasts are uncertain in the best of times, and today the virus raises a new set of questions. How quickly and sustainably will it be brought under control? Can new outbreaks be avoided as social distancing measures lapse? How long will it take for confidence to return and normal spending to resume? And what will be the scope and timing of new therapies, testing or vaccine? The answers to these questions will go a long way towards setting the timing and pace of the economic recovery. Since the answers are currently unknowable, policies will need to be ready to address a range of possible outcomes. The overall policy response to date has provided a measure of relief and stability and will provide some support to the recovery when it comes.
盡管經濟反應既及時又適當，但鑒於前進的道路既高度不確定，又麵臨巨大的下行風險，因此可能並不是最後一章。經濟預測在最好的時期是不確定的，如今，該病毒引發了一係列新問題。它會在多快和可持續的範圍內得到控製？隨著社會疏離措施的失效，能否避免新的爆發？恢複信心並恢複正常支出需要多長時間？新療法，測試或疫苗的範圍和時間將是什麽？這些問題的答案將對設定經濟複蘇的時機和步伐有很大幫助。由於答案目前未知，因此需要準備好應對一係列可能結果的政策。迄今為止的總體政策反應已經提供了緩解和穩定的措施，並將在複蘇到來時提供一些支持。
個人點評：最壞的時刻還沒有結束。Powell 提出的這些問題，現在誰都不知道如何回答。這一切的一切都已經超越美聯儲被賦予的權利和責任。言下之意，美聯儲沒有能力提供這些問題的答案。
Jerome Powell: (05:53)
But the Coronavirus crisis raises longer-term concerns as well. The record shows that deeper and longer recessions can leave behind lasting damage to the productive capacity of the economy. Avoidable household and business insolvencies can weigh on growth for years to come. Long stretches of unemployment can damage or end workers’ careers as their skills lose value and professional networks dry up and leave families in greater debt. The loss of thousands of small and medium sized businesses across the country would destroy the life’s work and family legacy of many businesses and community leaders and limit the strength of the recovery when it comes. These businesses are a principal source of job creation, something we will need sorely as people seek to return to work. A prolonged recession and weak recovery could also discourage business investment and expansion, further limiting the resurgence of jobs as well as the growth of the capital stock and the pace of technological advancement.
但是冠狀病毒危機也引起了人們的長期擔憂。記錄顯示，更深更長時間的衰退可能對經濟的生產能力造成持久損害。可避免的家庭破產和企業破產可能會影響未來幾年的增長。長期的失業可能會損害工人或最終工人的職業，因為他們的技能失去價值，專業網絡枯竭，使家庭背負更大的債務。全國數千家中小型企業的流失將破壞許多企業和社區領導人的生活和家庭遺產，並限製複蘇的力量。這些業務是創造工作的主要來源，隨著人們尋求重返工作，我們將迫切需要這些業務。長期的衰退和疲軟的複蘇也可能阻礙商業投資和擴張，進一步限製了就業機會的複蘇以及資本存量的增長和技術進步的步伐。
個人點評：Powell警告COVID-19有可能引發更深更長期的經濟衰退。未來美國經濟複蘇的道路漫長而艱辛。V形翻轉是不切實際的空想。未來美國經濟更有可能麵臨的是L形或U形的複蘇之路。
Jerome Powell: (06:56)
The result could be an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes. We ought to do what we can to avoid these outcomes, and that may require additional policy measures. At the fed we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis has passed and the economic recovery is well underway. Recall though that the fed has lending powers and not spending powers. Alone from a fed facility can provide a bridge across temporary interruptions to liquidity, and those loans will help many borrowers get through the current crisis. But the recovery may take some time to gather momentum, and the passage of time can turn liquidity problems into solvency problems. Additional fiscal support could be costly but worth it if it helps avoid longterm damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This trade off is one for our elected representatives who wield powers of taxation and spending.
結果可能是生產力增長緩慢和收入停滯的延長時期。 我們應該盡力避免這些結果，這可能需要采取其他政策措施。 在美聯儲，我們將繼續最大程度地使用我們的工具，直到危機過去並且經濟複蘇良好。 回想一下，盡管美聯儲擁有放債權而不具有支出權。 單獨來自聯邦信貸機構可以為暫時中斷流動性提供橋梁，這些貸款將幫助許多借款人度過當前危機。 但是，複蘇可能需要一些時間才能聚集動力，時間的流逝會將流動性問題變成償付能力問題。 額外的財政支持可能是昂貴的，但如果能避免長期損失並讓我們有更強的複蘇能力，則值得。 對於我們當選的行使稅收和支出權力的代表來說，這是一種折衷。
個人點評：美聯儲當全力而為，盡最大可能挽救美國經濟。美國經濟的複蘇需要時間。Powell的擔保為黃金未來高漲提報了理論基礎。
望大千同仁準備好應對之策。The Worst is Yet To Come!
信息分享，個人淺見。翻譯不當之處，望見諒。
謝謝。
現在新冠肺炎疫情對美國經濟的最大威脅是通貨緊縮！所以，美聯儲才不計代價，使用一切工具挽救美國經濟。直接後果就是美聯儲資產負債表已經高達7萬億美元。黃金借此機會水漲船高。
這是指新冠肺炎疫情結束後的情形。我的完整原文是：一旦COVID-19疫情過去，美聯儲將逐漸收回現在所有使用的經濟擴張工具。即美聯儲停止印鈔放貸等活動壓縮美聯儲資產負債表，其可能的後果是美元大漲，黃金大跌。
多謝！是，我和上麵的 嘰咪 有同樣疑問。另外，文中提到的通貨膨脹，好像說這次和之前不一樣。也可能我沒有理解。
因為，美聯儲和國會采取任何進一步的舒困措施，就是印鈔票，將稀釋美元價值，照成通貨膨脹，托舉黃金步步走高。鮑威爾已經講明：美聯儲將不計一切代價挽救美國經濟 。。。。。。
恭喜發財！
謝謝。希望這些信息能幫助你在投資時做出最正確的決定。