聯儲會後：市場將按照原有趨勢複暖

美聯儲會議沒有意外：承認經濟走軟、通漲低迷，表示升息手下留情。從客觀看，聯儲的舉動緩解了燃眉之急。股市動蕩的原因之一是美國和其它國家貨幣政策背道而馳，帶來的不確定性。美國能緩一緩，大家都安靜下來看看，對市場的人心有好處。從長期看，這對商品類不見的是福音：把聯儲放在analyst的位置，它顯然不看好油價等商品類的複蘇。否則聯儲保持原有計劃，靜候商品類價格的複蘇來把通漲推升，無為而治、豈不更好？

昨天盤前中國大跌，美股反應淡淡。今早蘋果、波音等季報不好，股市反應平常。這基本是利空不跌的形態。油價看來在30一帶站穩。幾個指數底部金叉呼之欲出，最近幾天跌不動和這個有關係，不像前兩周，類似消息動輒三百點。中國過年關盤一周，少了一個不安因素。去年一月，也是從2060到1980往返跑幾次，到一月底VIX和大盤對峙，後來一波上漲。現在折騰一個月，又快到時候了。沒看見最近兩天VIX漲不動？VIX的高企需要不斷喂養壞消息，爛蘋果之類的都喂不飽，可見市場的人心在變皮實。二月有望見SP 2000。

[fishpet1]

thank you very much

[greencardwaiting]

My guess is that gold is a safer investment if US dollar gets stronger. Plus, I dont quite understand what you dont think so of what. What I wrote was gleaned from cnbc and wsj, not my opinion.

ivlp85 發表評論於 2016-01-27 19:24:05
回複 'greencardwaiting' 的評論 : I do not think so... Then, why gold goes up so much after the FED meeting

[ivlp85]

回複 'greencardwaiting' 的評論 : I do not think so... Then, why gold goes up so much after the FED meeting

[greencardwaiting]

The Fed last year stated that they planned 4+ rate hikes this year to move the economy back to normal. However, the market has been a mess since the first day of this year. The market wanted the Fed to acknowledge the difficulty situation and take the possibility of 4+ rate hikes off the table. Unfortunately, the Fed didn't do any of that. It worries people that the Fed will stick to their original statement.

[greencardwaiting]

The stock market reacted very negatively because the possibility of 4+ rate hikes this year is still on the table.

purplecafe 發表評論於 2016-01-27 14:52:28
十二少，沒想明白今天fed會後為啥跌。

[隨意001]

不就是個超跌反彈嗎？哪那麽複雜。基本麵之弱，隻能說沒有最弱，隻有更弱。去年和今年哪有什麽可比之處。

[霧靈十二少]

市場有它非理性一麵，今天會後為什麽跌？它想往下忽悠，誰攔得住？單純從指數MACD看，這裏深水出金叉。後麵有較大可能出現幾周的上升行情。能升多高，補不補2044？我的理解是天時重於地利：它給你幾周時間，漲多漲少看你的造化，到點它就翻臉，頂部出死叉。論壇看空、喊暴跌的神人一個賽一個，也不看看基本麵的雙重性：本質尚可，股票在2000點以上嫌貴、成長空間不足，另外有了恐怖主義、商品價格等問題，市場容易受侵襲。今年總體盤勢中性偏空，如果全年在20XX到18XX震蕩，不奇怪。

[alongway]

Thank you for sharing!

[purplecafe]

十二少，沒想明白今天fed會後為啥跌。

[Obamalin8]

聯儲是不看好商品類攀升，還是根本就控製商品類不讓攀升呢？我傾向於後者。俄羅斯還沒倒下那些小國還沒破產之前不能漲商品價格。
長期看熊，聯儲引錢入美。短期看牛，聯儲安撫人心。

[tutututu]

多謝少爺。二月能補缺口嗎？熊市不補缺口會不會跌不踏實？

[sandwater]

多謝少爺！