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今早Plosser訪談時先是提到2016年底利率該升到3%,美股期指聞聲大漲。如果是那樣,應該是明年下半年加息。股市開盤不到10分鍾,他澄清:應該2015年底利率升到3%,2016年底到4%。這樣一來,即使明年春天開始升息,從0到3%,也要升得很急,必須有0.5%一次的加息幅度。或者今年冬天開始行動。需要指出他是聯儲裏的鷹派人物。折衷地看,應該是明年春天加息,明年年底到2.5%,2016年底4%。
Fed's Plosser sees end-2016 funds rate at 4%, not 3%
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, on Tuesday clarified his interest rate forecast, saying he sees the federal funds rate at 4% at the end of 2016. Earlier in an interview on CNBC, Plosser said he projected the funds rate at 3% at the end of 2016. But CNBC said that Plosser contacted the network after the interview to amend his forecast. He said he sees the funds rate at 3% at the end of 2015, instead of his earlier comment of "two-something," CNBC said. Plosser is a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-plosser-sees-end-2016-funds-rate-at-4-not-3-2014-03-25?link=MW_latest_news