正文
2.6
日記1 拒絕遵命文藝
遵命文學不是文學，遵命藝術不是藝術，藝術存在的意義是做為先鋒——因為藝術創作者的敏感性、較強的感受性、超前性。遵命意味著出賣真實（感受）與權貴，在道德的上是可恥的，在藝術上是貶值的。
日記2 黃色笑話8
1、 副局長在辦公室大罵:局長算個雞 巴!恰被局長聽到,反問:我是雞 巴,你是什麽?副局長立刻例證,機智的回答:我是雞 巴毛,緊密的團結在您的周圍.
2、帝見妃愁容滿麵，急召禦醫.醫處方:壯漢八條.幾日後，帝出巡回宮.見妃容光煥發,大喜.忽見殿前立八名瘦漢，驚問:何人? 禦醫答:藥渣!
3、說一對男女xj，男的進入之後趴在女的身上不動，溫柔的說:咱們現在聯通了，女的有些不悅，男猛烈進攻，女的高聲大喊:移動就是比聯通好!
4、一男士去醫院,醫生問:何處不適？男答：聽後不準笑.醫生答:當然.男士脫其褲生 殖 器 僅有火柴棒粗,醫生大笑.男士大怒:都腫了好幾天了,你還笑!
5、石油廠新人結婚,廠長送來對聯.上聯是:新人新井新鑽頭:下聯是:越鑽越深越出油.橫批是:月明鬆.眾問橫批何意,答:將明字分開朗讀即可.
6、晚飯後領導視察'江陰 毛紡織廠',大門口霓虹燈的廠名不巧電路故障,第一個江字未亮,領導隻能看到後五個字,於是關切地問廠長:原材料好搞嘛?
7某男拿女醫生所開處方轉了半天回來問："13超到底在哪？"女醫生笑曰："不是13超，是B超。"男大怒曰："靠！你的B分得也太開了!
8.小兩口吵架從樓上扔一枕頭，正巧一乞丐路過甚喜。片刻又有一被子飛下，乞丐狂喜。於是擦著眼淚對樓上喊：大兄弟，行行好，把那女的也扔下來吧！
China’s Last Soft Landing NEW HAVEN –
Once again, China has defied the naysayers. Economic growth picked up in the final quarter of 2012 to 7.9% – half a percentage point faster than the 7.4% increase in GDP in the third quarter. This was a meaningful increase after ten consecutive quarters of deceleration, and it marks the Chinese economy’s second soft landing in slightly less than four years. This illustration is by Paul Lachine and comes from NewsArt.com, and is the property of the NewsArt organization and of its artist. Reproducing this image is a violation of copyright law.Illustration by Paul Lachine Comments
Despite all the talk about the coming shift to internal demand, China remains heavily dependent on exports and external demand as major drivers of economic growth. It is not a coincidence that its last two slowdowns followed closely on the heels of growth slumps in its two largest foreign markets, Europe and the United States. Just as the soft landing in early 2009 occurred in the aftermath of a horrific American-made crisis, this latest one followed the European sovereign-debt crisis. Comments
China has several sources of strength that have enabled it to withstand the tough external shocks of the last four years. Large buffers of saving (53% of GDP) and foreign-exchange reserves ($3.3 trillion) are at the top of the list. Moreover, unlike the West, which has used up most of its traditional countercyclical policy ammunition, China has maintained ample scope for fiscal and monetary-policy adjustments as circumstances dictate. Likewise, a powerful urbanization dynamic continues to deliver solid support for China’s high-investment economy, while enabling relatively poor rural workers to raise their incomes by finding higher-paying jobs in the cities. Comments
Nonetheless, this may be the last time that China can escape an external shock with its growth intact. Premier Wen Jiabao addressed this possibility nearly six years ago, arguing in March 2007 that the seemingly spectacular Chinese economy had become “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsustainable.” Comments
Since then, many of China’s inherent strengths have been sapped by all-too-frequent external shocks. The banking sector is still digging out from the bad loans extended in the aftermath of the global meltdown in 2008. Finding affordable housing has become an increasingly serious problem for those relocating to cities for the first time. And corruption scandals and the related risks of political turmoil were unsettling, to say the least, in the months prior to last year’s Communist Party leadership transition. CommentsIn other words, the vulnerability implied by Wen’s “Four Uns” has increased significantly. China’s economy has certainly become more unstable, with major slowdowns in real GDP growth in 2009 and again in 2012. Its imbalances have gotten worse as well, with the investment share of GDP approaching 50% and private consumption falling below 35% of GDP. CommentsSimilarly, China has become more uncoordinated, or fragmented, as its income disparities have continued to widen. And sustainability is being jeopardized by environmental degradation and pollution, which pose a growing threat to the country’s atmosphere and water supply. CommentsIn short, China’s growth model has been stretched as never before. And, like a piece of fabric, the longer it remains stretched, the longer it will take to return to its former resilient state – and the greater the possibility that it will not spring back the next time something goes wrong.
The message to China’s new leadership is unmistakable: There has never been a more urgent time to get on with the heavy lifting of rebalancing and reform. Now is the time to implement the measures that will accelerate the transition to a more consumer-led economy.
The agenda is long, but it is hardly a secret. It includes developing the services sector, funding the social safety net, liberalizing an antiquated residential-permit system (hukou), reforming state-owned enterprises, and ending financial repression on households by lifting artificially low interest rates on savings.
Failure to act quickly on this program would leave China far too vulnerable to the inevitable next shock in a crisis-battered world. In the absence of rebalancing, any one of several potential tipping points could seriously compromise the economy’s ability to pull off another soft landing: deteriorating credit quality in the banking system; weakening export competitiveness as wages rise; key environmental, governance, and social problems (namely, pollution, corruption, and inequality); and, of course, foreign-policy missteps, as suggested by escalating problems with Japan.
The Chinese economy has come through two major global crises in the past four years. On the surface, its resilience has been impressive – the first to recover, as Chinese leaders always want to remind the rest of the world. But, beneath the surface, an unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, and unsustainable economy risks losing its capacity for resilience. Without rebalancing and reforms, the days of the automatic Chinese soft landing may be over.
I have been an optimist about China for 15 years. I still am. But the clock is ticking. Wen Jiabao’s critique six years ago was a powerful diagnosis of the Old China’s flaws that pointed to the Next China’s hopes and dreams. It remains a blueprint that China’s new leadership cannot ignore. Time is no longer on China’s side. It must act now.
Hasta el momento el crecimiento.económico ha impedido que el país se estanque; sin embargo, pronto la creciente corrupción traerá riesgos y colapsos políticos o sociales... 100% Leo Arouet 5 days ago , China se enfrenta ahora a varias dificultades y problemas que son inherentes a todo crecimiento económico. Carol Maczinsky 5 days ago A Chinese hard landing is just a matter of time. Like a turkey earthquake in Istanbul. ACchinese collapse would also fix the US issues and lead to a breakup of China into smaller pieces. China is the new Austrohungarian empire. srinivasan gopalan @geeyes34 6 days ago The author while setting out the agenda for China under the new leadership for a consumer-led economy has conspicuously side-stepped the crucial issue of freedom and liberty to its citizenry. In the absence of fundamental rights that guarantee implicit liberty, no society can become consumerist because the omission of this option or choice militates against offer of a plethora of choices the consumer culture embodies. If development and grandeur were to be secured at the suppression of basic rights, then no society can look forward to future with high hopes. China's place in the comity of nations needs to be natural and should not be born out of the fear of its economic success or military might when political rights to its millions of people remain a pipe-dream even to this day. It is high time the new leadership followed the daring path of Deng when he launched economic reform through market model for progress and prosperity by going in for democratic paradigm of governance so that the rest of the world would feel that a nation with guaranteed political rights to its millions would dare not draw swords with its neighbours or opponents. This is so because any misadventure or foolhardiness on the part of the Chinese authorities should bring immense miseries to its people who might not like to invite trouble when they enjoy the bliss of consumerist economy and the ironical and unique model of Marxist- market developmental model . G.Srinivasan, Journalist, new delhi, inde Expand 100% Paul Mathew Mathew 1 week ago If China were to be a consumer-driven economy anywhere remotely similar to the US... that would be the end of the world as we know it. In case the brain dead economists hadn't noticed, we live in a finite world with finite resources. We are already peaking out on CHEAP oil and that is putting a massive drag on the global economy. Can you imagine if China was to fire on all cylinders? Expand pingfan hong 1 week ago Technically, in terms of sequential quarterly growth, the growth in the 4th quarter of 2012 was still lower than that of the 3rd quarter, too early to claim a victory of soft landing for China, although I agree with the author that China has an ample policy space to prevent a hard landing. The uncertainty remains, however, on whether the new government is still willing to rely on the old tricks to stimulate the economic growth if the economy continues to soften. The excess capacity in many industrial sectors remains worrisome. Expand Jan Smith 1 week ago The late 20th century global system--among the largest national economies, one liberal (USA), and three mercantilists (China, Japan, Germany)--was unsustainable. Two of the mercantilist nations became much richer, and the liberal nation poorer (way poorer than it will admit), until the system crashed. So a prominent liberal economist here advises the most successful mercantilist nation to become liberal. Will it take that advice, do you think? Not until the liberal nation retaliates with mercantilism of its own, I suspect. The Fed seems to know this but the Fed will need a lot of help--a steep VAT, deniable tariffs, etc. Expand 100% Zsolt Hermann 1 week ago There are two simple reasons why China, and in fact all the other countries cannot avoid a total collapse unless they change the present system fundamentally: 1. The world is fully interconnected and interdependent as the article itself also suggests. Thus there cannot be nations, regions, even individuals that can disconnect, pull away from the whole network. On the other hand even the smallest nation falling can pull the whole network with it. From now on only complete, and real, global and mutual cooperation from the planning to the acting level can be successful. 2. The present overproduction, over consumption economic model, regardless of the governing structure serving it is unnatural and unsustainable. Only when we take into consideration the closed natural system we exist in, and natural desires and necessities without artificially inflated yearnings and cravings, then we would be able to build a sustainable system. This is true to China as well as any other country or individual. Expand Frank O'Callaghan 6 days ago Zsolt Hermann is right, but the unbalanced consumption should be fixed by increasing the resources to the poor. x Newsart for The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Recommended for you The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-economic-resilience-is-weakening-by-stephen-s--roach#APOEWK3XzY4xfdrW.99
● 史蒂文·羅奇 中國又一次證明不看好它的人是錯誤的。其經濟增長在2012年最後一個季度提速至7.9%——比第三季度的7.4%國內生產總值（GDP）增長速度高出半個百分點。經過連續十個季度的減速後，這次提速意義非凡，標誌著中國經濟在略短於四年的時間內第二次實現了軟著陸。 盡管有很多關於中國經濟將來會轉向內需導向的說法，它現在還是非常依賴出口和外部需求為其經濟增長的主要動力。中國最近兩次經濟減速都緊隨其最大的兩個國外市場——歐洲和美國——的經濟衰退之後，並不是巧合。就像2009年初的軟著陸發生在美國引發的可怕危機後那樣，最近這一次的軟著陸則緊跟在歐洲主權債務危機之後。 中國有幾個實力來源，讓它能夠在過去四年裏承受嚴峻的外部衝擊。大量儲蓄（GDP的53%）所構成的緩衝及外匯儲備（3.3萬億美元）是其中最重要的。此外，不像已用盡了大部分傳統反周期政策的西方國家，如果形勢需要，中國還保持著財政及貨幣政策調整的巨大空間。同樣地，強大的城市化動力繼續為中國的高投資經濟提供堅固的支持，並讓相對貧窮的農民工能夠通過在城市找到收入更高的工作來增加收入。 然而，這也許是中國最後一次能夠在增長不受影響的情況下避過外部衝擊。其總理溫家寶早在約六年前就提出了這種可能性，他在2007年3月指出：看似輝煌的中國經濟已變得“不穩定、不平衡、不協調、並最終不可持續”了。 自那時起，中國的許多固有優勢被頻繁的外部衝擊削弱了。銀行業仍在清理2008年全球危機後遺留下來的不良貸款。對那些第一次移居到城市的人來說，要找到負擔得起的房子已成為一個日益嚴重的問題。腐敗醜聞和可能帶來的相關政治動亂風險也讓人們感到不安——至少在去年共產黨領導層權力交接之前的數月是這樣的。 換句話說，溫家寶“四不”所指的經濟弱點已顯著加劇了。中國經濟確實已變得更不穩定，它的實際GDP增長於2009年大幅放緩，2012年也是如此。發展不平衡也變得更嚴重——投資占GDP的比重接近50%，而私人消費下跌至不到GDP的35%。 同樣地，中國也變得更加不協調或者說碎片化，這是因為其收入差距一直在擴大。而發展的可持續性正被環境退化和汙染破壞，這對中國的大氣層和水供構成了越來越大的威脅。 簡而言之，中國的增長模式被前所未有地擴展。而就像一塊布料一樣，它被拉伸的時間越長，要回到原來有彈性的狀態所需要的時間就越長——而且越有可能在下一次出了什麽差錯時，再也恢複不到原有的狀態。 這給新一屆中國領導人傳遞的信息是很明確的：從來沒有任何時候像現在這樣迫切需要大力進行再平衡和改革。實施加速經濟過渡到更為以消費者為導向經濟的措施，現在正是時候。 要做的事很多，但這已不是什麽秘密了，包括發展服務業、資助社會安全網、放寬過時的戶口政策、改革國有企業、並通過提高被刻意降低的儲蓄利率來結束對家庭的金融壓迫。 如果不能迅速地實施這些措施，在這個飽受危機衝擊的世界，中國可能經不起下一次不可避免的衝擊。若沒有進行重新平衡，幾個潛在臨界點中的任何一個都可能嚴重危害中國經濟實現另一次軟著陸的能力：銀行體係信貸質量的惡化；因工資上漲被削弱的出口競爭力；關鍵的環境、治理和社會問題（即汙染、腐敗和貧富差距的問題）；當然，還有例如與日本之間不斷升級的問題可能帶來的外交政策失誤。 中國經濟在過去四年安然度過了兩個重大的全球危機。表麵上，其韌性令人印象深刻——正如中國領導人一直對全世界強調的一樣，它是第一個恢複過來的國家。然而，表麵之下，這個不平衡、不穩定、不協調、無法持續發展的經濟體可能會失去複原能力。如果不進行再平衡和改革，中國自動軟著陸的好日子也許就再也不會有了。 我15年來一直對中國經濟保持樂觀，現在依然如此。但時間不等人。溫家寶六年前的評論是對過去中國缺陷強有力的診斷，並指出了未來中國的希望和夢想所在。它仍然是中國新一代領導人不能忽視的藍圖。對中國來說，時間已經很緊迫了，它必須馬上采取行動。 作者Stephen S. Roach是耶魯大學教授，摩根士丹利亞洲前主席。
日記1 拒絕遵命文藝
遵命文學不是文學，遵命藝術不是藝術，藝術存在的意義是做為先鋒——因為藝術創作者的敏感性、較強的感受性、超前性。遵命意味著出賣真實（感受）與權貴，在道德的上是可恥的，在藝術上是貶值的。
日記2 黃色笑話8
1、 副局長在辦公室大罵:局長算個雞 巴!恰被局長聽到,反問:我是雞 巴,你是什麽?副局長立刻例證,機智的回答:我是雞 巴毛,緊密的團結在您的周圍.
2、帝見妃愁容滿麵，急召禦醫.醫處方:壯漢八條.幾日後，帝出巡回宮.見妃容光煥發,大喜.忽見殿前立八名瘦漢，驚問:何人? 禦醫答:藥渣!
3、說一對男女xj，男的進入之後趴在女的身上不動，溫柔的說:咱們現在聯通了，女的有些不悅，男猛烈進攻，女的高聲大喊:移動就是比聯通好!
4、一男士去醫院,醫生問:何處不適？男答：聽後不準笑.醫生答:當然.男士脫其褲生 殖 器 僅有火柴棒粗,醫生大笑.男士大怒:都腫了好幾天了,你還笑!
5、石油廠新人結婚,廠長送來對聯.上聯是:新人新井新鑽頭:下聯是:越鑽越深越出油.橫批是:月明鬆.眾問橫批何意,答:將明字分開朗讀即可.
6、晚飯後領導視察'江陰 毛紡織廠',大門口霓虹燈的廠名不巧電路故障,第一個江字未亮,領導隻能看到後五個字,於是關切地問廠長:原材料好搞嘛?
7某男拿女醫生所開處方轉了半天回來問："13超到底在哪？"女醫生笑曰："不是13超，是B超。"男大怒曰："靠！你的B分得也太開了!
8.小兩口吵架從樓上扔一枕頭，正巧一乞丐路過甚喜。片刻又有一被子飛下，乞丐狂喜。於是擦著眼淚對樓上喊：大兄弟，行行好，把那女的也扔下來吧！
China’s Last Soft Landing NEW HAVEN –
Once again, China has defied the naysayers. Economic growth picked up in the final quarter of 2012 to 7.9% – half a percentage point faster than the 7.4% increase in GDP in the third quarter. This was a meaningful increase after ten consecutive quarters of deceleration, and it marks the Chinese economy’s second soft landing in slightly less than four years. This illustration is by Paul Lachine and comes from NewsArt.com, and is the property of the NewsArt organization and of its artist. Reproducing this image is a violation of copyright law.Illustration by Paul Lachine Comments
Despite all the talk about the coming shift to internal demand, China remains heavily dependent on exports and external demand as major drivers of economic growth. It is not a coincidence that its last two slowdowns followed closely on the heels of growth slumps in its two largest foreign markets, Europe and the United States. Just as the soft landing in early 2009 occurred in the aftermath of a horrific American-made crisis, this latest one followed the European sovereign-debt crisis. Comments
China has several sources of strength that have enabled it to withstand the tough external shocks of the last four years. Large buffers of saving (53% of GDP) and foreign-exchange reserves ($3.3 trillion) are at the top of the list. Moreover, unlike the West, which has used up most of its traditional countercyclical policy ammunition, China has maintained ample scope for fiscal and monetary-policy adjustments as circumstances dictate. Likewise, a powerful urbanization dynamic continues to deliver solid support for China’s high-investment economy, while enabling relatively poor rural workers to raise their incomes by finding higher-paying jobs in the cities. Comments
Nonetheless, this may be the last time that China can escape an external shock with its growth intact. Premier Wen Jiabao addressed this possibility nearly six years ago, arguing in March 2007 that the seemingly spectacular Chinese economy had become “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsustainable.” Comments
Since then, many of China’s inherent strengths have been sapped by all-too-frequent external shocks. The banking sector is still digging out from the bad loans extended in the aftermath of the global meltdown in 2008. Finding affordable housing has become an increasingly serious problem for those relocating to cities for the first time. And corruption scandals and the related risks of political turmoil were unsettling, to say the least, in the months prior to last year’s Communist Party leadership transition. CommentsIn other words, the vulnerability implied by Wen’s “Four Uns” has increased significantly. China’s economy has certainly become more unstable, with major slowdowns in real GDP growth in 2009 and again in 2012. Its imbalances have gotten worse as well, with the investment share of GDP approaching 50% and private consumption falling below 35% of GDP. CommentsSimilarly, China has become more uncoordinated, or fragmented, as its income disparities have continued to widen. And sustainability is being jeopardized by environmental degradation and pollution, which pose a growing threat to the country’s atmosphere and water supply. CommentsIn short, China’s growth model has been stretched as never before. And, like a piece of fabric, the longer it remains stretched, the longer it will take to return to its former resilient state – and the greater the possibility that it will not spring back the next time something goes wrong.
The message to China’s new leadership is unmistakable: There has never been a more urgent time to get on with the heavy lifting of rebalancing and reform. Now is the time to implement the measures that will accelerate the transition to a more consumer-led economy.
The agenda is long, but it is hardly a secret. It includes developing the services sector, funding the social safety net, liberalizing an antiquated residential-permit system (hukou), reforming state-owned enterprises, and ending financial repression on households by lifting artificially low interest rates on savings.
Failure to act quickly on this program would leave China far too vulnerable to the inevitable next shock in a crisis-battered world. In the absence of rebalancing, any one of several potential tipping points could seriously compromise the economy’s ability to pull off another soft landing: deteriorating credit quality in the banking system; weakening export competitiveness as wages rise; key environmental, governance, and social problems (namely, pollution, corruption, and inequality); and, of course, foreign-policy missteps, as suggested by escalating problems with Japan.
The Chinese economy has come through two major global crises in the past four years. On the surface, its resilience has been impressive – the first to recover, as Chinese leaders always want to remind the rest of the world. But, beneath the surface, an unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, and unsustainable economy risks losing its capacity for resilience. Without rebalancing and reforms, the days of the automatic Chinese soft landing may be over.
I have been an optimist about China for 15 years. I still am. But the clock is ticking. Wen Jiabao’s critique six years ago was a powerful diagnosis of the Old China’s flaws that pointed to the Next China’s hopes and dreams. It remains a blueprint that China’s new leadership cannot ignore. Time is no longer on China’s side. It must act now.
Hasta el momento el crecimiento.económico ha impedido que el país se estanque; sin embargo, pronto la creciente corrupción traerá riesgos y colapsos políticos o sociales... 100% Leo Arouet 5 days ago , China se enfrenta ahora a varias dificultades y problemas que son inherentes a todo crecimiento económico. Carol Maczinsky 5 days ago A Chinese hard landing is just a matter of time. Like a turkey earthquake in Istanbul. ACchinese collapse would also fix the US issues and lead to a breakup of China into smaller pieces. China is the new Austrohungarian empire. srinivasan gopalan @geeyes34 6 days ago The author while setting out the agenda for China under the new leadership for a consumer-led economy has conspicuously side-stepped the crucial issue of freedom and liberty to its citizenry. In the absence of fundamental rights that guarantee implicit liberty, no society can become consumerist because the omission of this option or choice militates against offer of a plethora of choices the consumer culture embodies. If development and grandeur were to be secured at the suppression of basic rights, then no society can look forward to future with high hopes. China's place in the comity of nations needs to be natural and should not be born out of the fear of its economic success or military might when political rights to its millions of people remain a pipe-dream even to this day. It is high time the new leadership followed the daring path of Deng when he launched economic reform through market model for progress and prosperity by going in for democratic paradigm of governance so that the rest of the world would feel that a nation with guaranteed political rights to its millions would dare not draw swords with its neighbours or opponents. This is so because any misadventure or foolhardiness on the part of the Chinese authorities should bring immense miseries to its people who might not like to invite trouble when they enjoy the bliss of consumerist economy and the ironical and unique model of Marxist- market developmental model . G.Srinivasan, Journalist, new delhi, inde Expand 100% Paul Mathew Mathew 1 week ago If China were to be a consumer-driven economy anywhere remotely similar to the US... that would be the end of the world as we know it. In case the brain dead economists hadn't noticed, we live in a finite world with finite resources. We are already peaking out on CHEAP oil and that is putting a massive drag on the global economy. Can you imagine if China was to fire on all cylinders? Expand pingfan hong 1 week ago Technically, in terms of sequential quarterly growth, the growth in the 4th quarter of 2012 was still lower than that of the 3rd quarter, too early to claim a victory of soft landing for China, although I agree with the author that China has an ample policy space to prevent a hard landing. The uncertainty remains, however, on whether the new government is still willing to rely on the old tricks to stimulate the economic growth if the economy continues to soften. The excess capacity in many industrial sectors remains worrisome. Expand Jan Smith 1 week ago The late 20th century global system--among the largest national economies, one liberal (USA), and three mercantilists (China, Japan, Germany)--was unsustainable. Two of the mercantilist nations became much richer, and the liberal nation poorer (way poorer than it will admit), until the system crashed. So a prominent liberal economist here advises the most successful mercantilist nation to become liberal. Will it take that advice, do you think? Not until the liberal nation retaliates with mercantilism of its own, I suspect. The Fed seems to know this but the Fed will need a lot of help--a steep VAT, deniable tariffs, etc. Expand 100% Zsolt Hermann 1 week ago There are two simple reasons why China, and in fact all the other countries cannot avoid a total collapse unless they change the present system fundamentally: 1. The world is fully interconnected and interdependent as the article itself also suggests. Thus there cannot be nations, regions, even individuals that can disconnect, pull away from the whole network. On the other hand even the smallest nation falling can pull the whole network with it. From now on only complete, and real, global and mutual cooperation from the planning to the acting level can be successful. 2. The present overproduction, over consumption economic model, regardless of the governing structure serving it is unnatural and unsustainable. Only when we take into consideration the closed natural system we exist in, and natural desires and necessities without artificially inflated yearnings and cravings, then we would be able to build a sustainable system. This is true to China as well as any other country or individual. Expand Frank O'Callaghan 6 days ago Zsolt Hermann is right, but the unbalanced consumption should be fixed by increasing the resources to the poor. x Newsart for The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Recommended for you The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-economic-resilience-is-weakening-by-stephen-s--roach#APOEWK3XzY4xfdrW.99
● 史蒂文·羅奇 中國又一次證明不看好它的人是錯誤的。其經濟增長在2012年最後一個季度提速至7.9%——比第三季度的7.4%國內生產總值（GDP）增長速度高出半個百分點。經過連續十個季度的減速後，這次提速意義非凡，標誌著中國經濟在略短於四年的時間內第二次實現了軟著陸。 盡管有很多關於中國經濟將來會轉向內需導向的說法，它現在還是非常依賴出口和外部需求為其經濟增長的主要動力。中國最近兩次經濟減速都緊隨其最大的兩個國外市場——歐洲和美國——的經濟衰退之後，並不是巧合。就像2009年初的軟著陸發生在美國引發的可怕危機後那樣，最近這一次的軟著陸則緊跟在歐洲主權債務危機之後。 中國有幾個實力來源，讓它能夠在過去四年裏承受嚴峻的外部衝擊。大量儲蓄（GDP的53%）所構成的緩衝及外匯儲備（3.3萬億美元）是其中最重要的。此外，不像已用盡了大部分傳統反周期政策的西方國家，如果形勢需要，中國還保持著財政及貨幣政策調整的巨大空間。同樣地，強大的城市化動力繼續為中國的高投資經濟提供堅固的支持，並讓相對貧窮的農民工能夠通過在城市找到收入更高的工作來增加收入。 然而，這也許是中國最後一次能夠在增長不受影響的情況下避過外部衝擊。其總理溫家寶早在約六年前就提出了這種可能性，他在2007年3月指出：看似輝煌的中國經濟已變得“不穩定、不平衡、不協調、並最終不可持續”了。 自那時起，中國的許多固有優勢被頻繁的外部衝擊削弱了。銀行業仍在清理2008年全球危機後遺留下來的不良貸款。對那些第一次移居到城市的人來說，要找到負擔得起的房子已成為一個日益嚴重的問題。腐敗醜聞和可能帶來的相關政治動亂風險也讓人們感到不安——至少在去年共產黨領導層權力交接之前的數月是這樣的。 換句話說，溫家寶“四不”所指的經濟弱點已顯著加劇了。中國經濟確實已變得更不穩定，它的實際GDP增長於2009年大幅放緩，2012年也是如此。發展不平衡也變得更嚴重——投資占GDP的比重接近50%，而私人消費下跌至不到GDP的35%。 同樣地，中國也變得更加不協調或者說碎片化，這是因為其收入差距一直在擴大。而發展的可持續性正被環境退化和汙染破壞，這對中國的大氣層和水供構成了越來越大的威脅。 簡而言之，中國的增長模式被前所未有地擴展。而就像一塊布料一樣，它被拉伸的時間越長，要回到原來有彈性的狀態所需要的時間就越長——而且越有可能在下一次出了什麽差錯時，再也恢複不到原有的狀態。 這給新一屆中國領導人傳遞的信息是很明確的：從來沒有任何時候像現在這樣迫切需要大力進行再平衡和改革。實施加速經濟過渡到更為以消費者為導向經濟的措施，現在正是時候。 要做的事很多，但這已不是什麽秘密了，包括發展服務業、資助社會安全網、放寬過時的戶口政策、改革國有企業、並通過提高被刻意降低的儲蓄利率來結束對家庭的金融壓迫。 如果不能迅速地實施這些措施，在這個飽受危機衝擊的世界，中國可能經不起下一次不可避免的衝擊。若沒有進行重新平衡，幾個潛在臨界點中的任何一個都可能嚴重危害中國經濟實現另一次軟著陸的能力：銀行體係信貸質量的惡化；因工資上漲被削弱的出口競爭力；關鍵的環境、治理和社會問題（即汙染、腐敗和貧富差距的問題）；當然，還有例如與日本之間不斷升級的問題可能帶來的外交政策失誤。 中國經濟在過去四年安然度過了兩個重大的全球危機。表麵上，其韌性令人印象深刻——正如中國領導人一直對全世界強調的一樣，它是第一個恢複過來的國家。然而，表麵之下，這個不平衡、不穩定、不協調、無法持續發展的經濟體可能會失去複原能力。如果不進行再平衡和改革，中國自動軟著陸的好日子也許就再也不會有了。 我15年來一直對中國經濟保持樂觀，現在依然如此。但時間不等人。溫家寶六年前的評論是對過去中國缺陷強有力的診斷，並指出了未來中國的希望和夢想所在。它仍然是中國新一代領導人不能忽視的藍圖。對中國來說，時間已經很緊迫了，它必須馬上采取行動。 作者Stephen S. Roach是耶魯大學教授，摩根士丹利亞洲前主席。
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