GMCR狂瀉讓人感覺股市的一片panic 個股的cycle

昨天和今天GMCR狂瀉讓人感覺股市的一片panic。從新聞裏沒有多少信息，隻知道這個公司發展會slow down，從增長70%降到增長50%，於是昨天after market股票一瀉千裏，一下就掉了快50%，令人唏噓。今天本盼著能反彈，可還是繼續往下掉，明天會不會反彈？明天的job 報告會好還是壞。現在對這家公司各種猜測都有，到底是反彈還是繼續下瀉，真說不上來，希望是反彈。下麵這篇文章能不能預測明天的股雲？

以下是今天的形勢ZT：

Is the U.S. economy heading for another 'Spring Swoon'? That's the question a lot of economists are wondering -- and worrying about -- ahead of Friday's critical April jobs report.

Thursday brought another round of economic data confirming the economy is downshifting, the big question is how fast.

Most troubling, ISM manufacturing fell to 53.5 in April, below expectations and its lowest level since December.

"'Respondents' comments affirm the slowing rate of growth," the Institute of Supply Management said in a release accompanying the report. "In addition, they remain concerned about rising fuel costs and the impact on shipping, transportation and petroleum-based product costs."

The ISM data follows the weaker-than-expected report on first-quarter GDP, and the most recent reports on durable goods, ADP payrolls and auto sales, which all disappointed.

On the other hand, gasoline prices have fallen for two-straight weeks, the ISM services data was better-than-expected and Thursday's weekly jobless claims data showed an unexpectedly large drop of 27,000.

In sum, the data are mixed with a decided bias to the downside.

The conventional wisdom is the U.S. economy will continue to muddle along in the low 2% range, which is certainly better than recession but not nearly strong enough to make a dent in the unemployment rate.

For April, the consensus is the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs while the unemployment held steady at 8.2%. Judging by the recent data, there is downside risk to consensus although the econo-bulls were encouraged by the big drop in weekly jobless claims.

In the accompanying video, I go inside the numbers with our economics editor Daniel Gross, who notes consumer spending added 2.8% to growth in the first quarter. Considering the overall number was 2.2%, that means the business investment and government activities were an overall drag on economic growth.

In 2009, 2010 and 2011, economic growth, however modest, was based largely on a rebound in business spending and investment. The big question now is whether the U.S. consumer can take the proverbial baton and keep the recovery afloat.

編後語：GMCR 經曆了幾個月的風雨後現在又上漲到原位，要是hold住就不會有損失了，也算是個教訓。

6月8日GMCR 76.09，每個股票都有cycle，如能長期hold，贏利可觀！