隴山隴西郡

寧靜純我心感得事物人寫樸實清新. 閑書閑話養閑心,閑筆閑寫記閑人;人生無虞懂珍惜，以沫相濡字字真。

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三歲看大，七歲看老zt

(2016-08-10 11:52:25) 下一個

美國大選：一個韜奮人的隨想（2）

(2016-07-28 15:55:43) 下一個

上一篇，我預測川普會以崩塌式（landslide）擊敗希拉莉，成為美國的第一任韜奮總統。

我認為，不論是讚成“時勢造英雄”還是“英雄造時勢”，川普現在是遇到了百年難逢的好機會。今天民主黨黨代會結束，希拉莉獲得提名，好戲開場。從現在開始，隻要川普做回他自己，他應該會順風順水，揚帆而下，直達白宮。換句話說，他想不贏都難。

這是我作為一個資深韜奮人，對川普這個人，以及對目前國內國際形勢進行分析以後得出的結論。

我今天先分析一下川普這個人。以後再分析國內國際形勢。

我作為一個專業韜奮人士，需要天天跟社會各個階層，各色人等打交道，常常需要在很短的時間裏，判斷一個人是否靠譜。這樣日複一日，年複一年，幾十年下來，多少練就了一些讀人的能力。仔細總結下來，我認為讀人還是有些簡單規律可循的。這些規律，雖然不能100%準確，但大的方向基本不會錯。

第一規律，是看家庭。先看這人的父母。流浪者說過，好人的兒子總是好人，賊人兒子總是賊。這話當然有例外，但應該還是八九不離十的。再進一步，再看這人的孩子。如果你做過父母，你就會知道，培養出一個好孩子絕對不是accident，西諺有所謂“Children speak volume for their parents。” 這也說的是家庭環境的重要性。我們雖然不能唯成份論，但成份論還是有用的。

第二規律，是看成就。這個人幹過什麽，幹得怎麽樣。如果你有我這把年紀，你就會知道，一個人，要幹好一件事情，是很不容易的。最近有研究表明，每件事情，要幹得像個樣子，有所造就，至少要有一萬個小時的專心投入。而如果要幹好很多事情，一路走來，最終成為人生贏家，絕對不是一個accident。

這兩大規律的validity，是以另一條更深刻的原理為基礎的。這個原理就是人性是不變的。所謂江山易改，本性難移，也可以說，撼山易，撼本性難。中國鄉下有句俗話，“三歲看大，七歲看老。”是同樣的意思。

為什麽說這條原理決定了兩大規律的可行性呢？原來正因為一個人的本性不容易隨意改變，那這個人的家庭，成就，都不僅僅代表過去，而且還對現在和未來具有指導作用。

好了，現在說回川普。當然，如果你同意我的兩大規律一大原理，你恐怕多少已經知道我的結論了。

川普1946年出生在紐約的一個中上階級家庭。父母在布魯克林，皇後區，斯坦特島做房地產，主要是給中下層階級韜奮。川普在賓大讀房地產學位期間，就與哥哥參與了家庭的韜奮生意。後來兩兄弟受父母之托，去到俄亥俄州的辛辛那提做一個窮人區的房屋改造項目。他們成功地把入住率從34%提高到了100%，發了一筆大財。他1968年大學畢業時，他的個人身家一躍成為$20萬。那年他24歲。

今天，川普的身家是$50億。

The rest is history.

當然，你可能會說，$50億不多，但我可以告訴你，能在46年內，從20萬漲到50億，平均每年的return大致是25%！

25%是什麽概念？我作為一個韜奮同行，給個對比。如果我每年能韜到 10% return，七年把身家翻一番，我就非常非常非常高興了。而川普能consistently做到25% return，每兩、三年身家翻一番。絕對是不容易的。對於喜歡炒股的人，S&P index 的平均return 是10%，與我韜奮的業績差不多。

~~~~~~~~~ Fact checking -- "$20萬。那年他24歲" ? http://www.politifact.com/florida/article/2016/mar/07/did-donald-trump-inherit-100-million/

Did Donald Trump inherit $100 million?

By Amy Sherman on Monday, March 7th, 2016 at 1:19 p.m.

Marco Rubio and Donald Trump attacked each other during the March 3, 2016 debate.

Donald Trump often talks about his success as a businessman creating thousands of jobs. But Marco Rubio says Trump hardly pulled that off on his own.

Among their many testy exchanges at the Republican debate in Detroit on March 3, 2016, was how much wealth Trump inherited.

"He talks about these great businesses that he's built," Rubio said. "He inherited over $100 million."

Trump interjected: "Wrong. Wrong. Wrong."

Trump added, "First of all, I got a call from my sister and brother tonight, and they said, ‘We had no idea Dad gave you $200 million.’ Believe me, I started off with $1 million. I built a company that's worth more than $10 billion. And I say it not in a bragging way, but that's the kind of thinking we need."

Did Trump inherit over $100 million as Rubio said at the March 3 debate? Trump did inherit money, but we could find no independent way to confirm the amount, so we are not rating the statement on our Truth-O-Meter. However, we will review what we do know about Trump's finances.

Trump’s inheritance

We asked a Rubio spokesman for his evidence that Trump inherited more than $100 million. (Rubio cited an even higher number of $200 million at a Feb. 25 debate.)

"The evidence would be on Donald Trump's tax returns right? Guess he'll need to shoot those on over to disprove the claim," Joe Pounder told PolitiFact. "Until then, all we have is his word that his inheritance was split amongst family members … All we know is there was an inheritance of up to $200 million. Donald Trump has never disputed the inheritance."

But news reports show that it’s a bit of a mystery how much Trump inherited from his father, Fred Sr. When he died in 1999, the New York Times reported that "his estate has been estimated by the family at $250 million to $300 million." The New York Daily News reported at the time that the estate was worth $100 million to $300 million based on family estimates.

But how was it divvied up? That’s something that reporters have tried to sort out during the 2016 race.

The New York Times reported Jan. 2 that Fred Sr.’s will "divided the bulk of the inheritance, at least $20 million, among his children and their descendants, ‘other than my son Fred C. Trump Jr.’ "

Some of the grandchildren sued, and an "amicable" settlement was worked out.

But Donald Trump received money from his father long before his death.

A National Journal writer, S.V. Dáte, estimated Trump started with $40 million in 1974 when he became president of his father’s real estate company. By one estimate, the firm was worth about $200 million. Divided among Donald Trump and his four siblings, each would have received $40 million.

But the company wasn’t liquidated that year, so Trump didn’t receive that as cash.

In 1982, after running his father’s firm for eight years, Forbes magazine estimated Trump’s worth at $200 million.

Pounder cited a couple other articles about Trump’s career and wealth or his father, but neither explained how much he inherited.

A Trump spokeswoman disagreed with Rubio’s claim but did not provide any evidence to refute it.

Rubio has a point that Trump isn’t entirely a self-made man. Trump took over his father’s business, and he inherited money when his father died. Verifying the specific amounts remains difficult.

~~~~~~~~~~`

也許你會問，那又怎樣？川普有五家公司破產，還有他的Trump University被人告。你怎麽不提？

你問得好。但是如果你要知道，川普有500多家公司在他的名下，其中五家公司破產，代表1%的失敗率，你還會覺得川普不行嗎？尤其在韜奮行業，這是極端難得的。另外，Trump University被人告，其實是很正常的。美國基本就沒有沒人告的賺錢公司。穀歌有人告，微軟有人告，蘋果有人告，連耶魯哈佛都有人告。還是華人呢。但是，法律界有句老話：“You can always sue, but whether you can win is another matter."

~~~~~~~~~~~~``

再看看川普的家庭。

川普有過三個妻子，其中兩個模特，一個演員。川普有五個孩子。三男二女。他的家庭好壞，仁者見仁，智者見智。但最近有句流行語：男人都希望有Melania做老婆，Ivanka做女兒。所以看來至少有人跟我一樣羨慕他。

原文在這裏：“Men wish to marry Melanias and raise Ivankas.”

分析到這裏，你可能會同意我的第一個結論：

結論一：川普是人生的贏家！

對應地，川普不可能是傻子，不可能是騙子，也不可能是瘋子，因為這不符我上述的兩大規律及一大原理，自然也就不符合邏輯，嗬嗬。

剩下的疑問是，川普是不是希特勒？是不是種族主義者？？是不是sexist？？？

我的結論是：都不是。