隴山隴西郡
寧靜純我心 感得事物人 寫樸實清新. 閑書閑話養閑心,閑筆閑寫記閑人;人生無虞懂珍惜，以沫相濡字字真。
"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”(H. L. Mencken).
So don't cry for America, just now. The truth is, democracy isn't leaving us -- and even when it does, there will still be plenty of other routes to be great again; for America rootes on solid ground of the intelligence of the American public, freedom of speech, a vote at hand that can shape a greater America, not dependent on superman, super spider man, even captain American, or some crazy figures or creatures crawling into the public life.
Some cry out for a great leader dropping down from Heaven, savig us all in America. You see a deafening chorus of pundits insisting that it was our founding fathers who laid the foundations for our extraordinary prosperity. Reeading today news headlines gotta me think about all around the world, worrying about America, a decaying nation of democracy.
Really? not so sure about it, now?
Ted Cruz said this morning: "Heidi is not pretty enough for Donald Trump!" "Trump is a pathetic liar!"
Hello! Heidi is your wife. Why do you want she's pretty enough for some other man? for a pathetic liar?
Are you thinking straight? Really? You're kidding, right?
It's chaotic, messy out there. I sincerely hope all the voters, "the intelligence of the American public," can clear up this mess.
Hey, my fellow Chinese voters, think straight - what's in it for you? You got the say now - Don't waste that right in your hand! As for the following reasons:
The public has a rather Zen-like view of election. They believe that candidates are rational, and that processes
are therefore unpredictable. It sounds peculiar, but the logic is ironclad. Rational
candidates would take into account everything they know -- all the information
available about where hot topic/policy and so on are going -- however, when join in or stay away, purely up to the voters.
Both Trump and Sanders are selling an illusion - no specifics, no How to solve the problems at hand - but it's an illusion -"I want change, I want an outsider of Washington" - many people want to believe in, and
there’s no easy way to counter that - "I win, I win and I win," how hilarious Trump felt running wildly, full of excitement and fever. While Clinton runs mericulously on her having been in the world of movers and shakers for so long,Clinton
can’t project the kind of purity that someone who has been an outsider of the ring - lack of vitality as doll it can be.
?
In the end, the voters got the say; of course, they take the consequence of their vote: bitter or sweet - they do learn from it, and move on. That's America, a nation
that takes a bold risk of trying something new, someone crazy enough to provoke
everything for better or worse.
Life goes on !
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References
I believe in only one thing and that thing is human liberty. If ever a man is to achieve anything like dignity, it can happen only if superior men are given absolute freedom to think what they want to think and say what they want to say. I am against any man and any organization which seeks to limit or deny that freedom. . . [and] the superior man can be sure of freedom only if it is given to all men.
I believe in the complete freedom of thought and speech — alike for the humblest man and the mightiest, and in the utmost freedom of conduct that is consistent with living in organized society.
I believe in the capacity of man to conquer his world, and to find out what it is made of, and how it is run.
I believe in the reality of progress.
I —But the whole thing, after all, may be put very simply. I believe that it is better to tell the truth than to lie. I believe that it is better to be free than to be a slave. And I believe that it is better to know than be ignorant.
One of the main purposes of laws in a democratic society is to put burdens upon intelligence and reduce it to impotence. Ostensibly, their aim is to penalize anti-social acts; actually their aim is to penalize heretical opinions. At least ninety-five Americans out of every 100 believe that this process is honest and even laudable; it is practically impossible to convince them that there is anything evil in it. In other words, they cannot grasp the concept of liberty. Always they condition it with the doctrine that the state, i.e., the majority, has a sort of right of eminent domain in acts, and even in ideas — that it is perfectly free, whenever it is so disposed, to forbid a man to say what he honestly believes.
Henry Louis Mencken (12 September 1880 – 29 January 1956), usually designated simply H. L. Mencken, was a twentieth-century journalist, satirist, social critic, cynic, and freethinker, known as the "Sage of Baltimore" and the "American Nietzsche". He is often regarded as one of the most influential American writers of the early 20th century.
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My takes on the US Presidential Election 2016
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Now that the dust has essentially clear on the US Presidential Election 2016, we have Trump vs. Clinton as the presumed nominees of the two respective parties (note the first half my prediction given more than six months ago has been proven to be true http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-1565-930275.html ).Here are my takes on the election using a series of well-known clichés, phrases, and personal observations (highlighted in RED) plus explanations (in BLACK) to give my take on the forthcoming election.
18 Republican candidates started.Now there is only Trump
Money talks: Trump being the only billionaire in the race can fund his own campaign rather than rely on donations and become beholden to special interest during the early days. He can say what he wants without fear This is an ADVANTAGE. But don’t worry, he only lent the money to his own campaign and expect to be paid back from the party and latter donations.
Angry populace: Trump cleverly sensed the discontent of a significant portion of the population and tapped into this discontent by saying things other candidate afraid to say. The electorates thus like him and he distinguishes himself from others.
Trump is like Reagan – a great communicator and entertainer: Nowadays Reagan is the saint of the Republican Party.In this Trump is like Reagan. Few in the race can match him for spontaneity and outspokenness.
Nothing personal, its business (politics) – The Godfather
People realize that during an election campaign all kinds of attacks are launched on your opponents. But after the race, the party must heal their wounds and unite together if the party is going to win. In 2008,Hillary actually placed Obama in nomination at the convention and worked hard for Obama. We wait to see if Trump’s opponent can do the same.
Favorability vs Electability: In an election we often equate the two.However, when it comes to the general election, Trump has a lot of negatives to overcome. Not that Hillary is without negatives. But when comes to qualifications and experience, Hillary has the edge. And in a general election, you vote for the lessor of two evils, i.e., against the candidate you don’t want.
Political party is a private club: They can make up their own rules which are why the “Stop Trump movement” is still hopeful that they can derail Trump if he does not achieve the 1237 delegate majority on the first ballot. But increasingly this is a forlorn hope that isnot going to be realized.
It is better the devil you know: Trump claims that his unpredictability is a virtue when comes to negotiating a new beginning to “make America great again”. But this is a big risk for an electorate to take.
Tempest (Storm) in a tea pot (toilet) as in thispast Sunday New York Times (4/24/2016) opinion page. Nowadays in America sex is “Beyond binary” of male and female. LBGTs (Lesbain, Bisexual,Gay, and Transgender) are in the mainstream. And which public bathrooms LBGTs should use has become a presidential campaign non-issue. Some States has in fact passed law dictating the choice.
Income inequality and Opportunity inequality: This is a real issue as I discussed in an earlier blog article http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=1565&do=blog&id=970138 .Bernie Saunders has correctly campaigned on this theme.
Democracy is complicated, inefficient, andmessy: As this election has so far demonstrated and remind us of the famous Churchillian saying
Democracy is the worst form of government except for all others.
The best arguement against democracy is to talk to a voter for five minutes.
http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-1565-973442.html 此文來自科學網何毓琦博客，轉載請注明出處。
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8 許培揚 李勝文 史曉雷 徐曉 XY decipherer qzw ahmen
該博文允許注冊用戶評論 請點擊登錄 評論 (6 個評論)
- [6]段新平
- What I really care about is individual will of the coming elected president Trump or Clinton could significantly dominate the true policy to EU, China, Russia, and the world. Personal will of the US president is standed for the power or political courage? Either we expect the Great Politician or the Great Intellectual.
- [5]ahmen
- What is a "CA"?
I see a polarization of job opportunities that drives the middle class down. This group of people is too numerous and too proud to be pacified by a Sanders style welfare. They demand a revolution through Trump. Somehow, the country needs to fill a mid-range hole in the job opportunities. Right now it is either coding for Google or flip burgers, with nothing in between. - 博主回複(2016-5-1 02:41)：CA=Chinese Americans
- [4]ahmen
- Thank you Prof. Ho for writing about this fascinating election again. I hope there are more discussions here, for it will impact China in a significant way.
Trump開始向中庸靠攏，成為美國總統的可能性很大。人們記憶力有限，你看幾個月以後，女人們也都會喜歡Trump.
克林頓基本上沒有什麽新招。她在外交上確實是經驗豐富，但是那些不是什麽成功的經驗。正如Trump所說，她的愚蠢已經使得幾十萬人被無辜殺害。在內政上民主黨一貫是劫富濟貧。可是真正的富人都是給了他們讚助的， 動不得。所以可以”劫“的，是老老實實，默默無聞的中產階層。中產階層的破落是Trump革命的主要原因。中產階層人數多，所以Trump贏得可能性也大。
這年頭去做美國總統，真不是一個好差使。Trump這樣站起來敢於事實求是地講一些真話還是很可貴的。他有什麽牌可打那是天曉得。Sanders基本上是托派。他也講真話，很可愛，孩子們都喜歡他。但是成不了氣候。那些思變的人，都會投Trump的票。 - 博主回複(2016-4-30 19:34)：Yes, it is not surprising that many CAs favor Trump, particularly immigrants who feel "if I can make it, why shouldn't everyone. You should rely on yourself http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-1565-820046.html ".
- [3]qzw
- 川普失去了一些女性選民，川普會贏得大選？
- 博主回複(2016-4-29 20:59)：We shall see if Trump is really smart or the polls are correct that he is un-electable.
- [2]decipherer
- But don’t worry, he only lent the money to his own campaign and expect to be paid back from the party and latter donations.
==========
好狡猾
- 博主回複(2016-4-29 22:43)：He was still taking a smart but calculated risk since the loan won't be repaid if he did not get the nomination. However, the spending in the initial stages were small. He merely increased his lending as his chance improved. SMART AND SHREWED!
- [1]李勝文
- You said what most elites (intellectuals) thought about; however, as Trump said, "I love poorly educated people, my kind of people." - that's his base, stirring up the anger among these folks. I'm afraid of that "But when comes to qualifications and experience, Hillary has the edge. " - it might be the opposite as both qualifications and experience can be "double-edged sword" - whatever heck wrong, she bears the blames. In the end, only God knows who'll win - May God bless America.
- 博主回複(2016-4-29 10:38)：I'd also remind readers of the famous American saying " no one ever went broke by underestimating the intelligence of the American public ".
- 博主回複(2016-4-29 07:44)：Yes, I don't count out Trump at all. Nor can he ruin America in my life time. We shall see. Nov 2016 shall be most interesting.
