經濟決戰：華盛頓對失敗的經濟的回答是：更多的戰爭

經濟決戰：華盛頓對失敗的經濟的回答是：更多的戰爭（組內翻譯稿）

21世紀的第二個十年伊始，美國經濟仍未從2007年12月開始的大衰退中恢複過來。此前美國已經采取了曆史上最大的財政和貨幣刺激舉措。投入了7000億救市資金，7000億刺激計劃，並且采取了上萬億的量化寬鬆政策，以債務貨幣化，即印錢的方式維持政府支出。美聯儲的資產負債表膨脹了好幾萬億美元，因為它購買了陷入困境的抵押債券和衍生品以維持金融係統的流動性和運轉。根據參議員Bernie Sanders發表的審計總署的審計報告，聯儲曾秘密借給美國及外國的銀行16萬億美元，這比美國國內生產總值還多。

但即使采取了這麽大的財政和貨幣刺激政策，經濟狀況仍是死氣沉沉不見希望。2011年聯邦政府年度支出占了整個國家預算的43%。換句話說，在2011財政年度裏，43%的國家支出須靠美國政府通過向美聯儲借貸和美聯儲印錢來維持。但史無前例的刺激政策仍不能使經濟恢複。

21世紀第一個十年接近尾聲的時候，聯邦對汽車和房屋購買的補貼措施使得經濟下滑暫時止住了腳步。新婚夫婦在購置新房時可以得到8000美金的補貼，這筆錢在低迷的房市裏占了首付款的很大部分。而購車補貼則是將未來的需求挪到了現在。但是，這些補貼措施一旦失效，那麽對經濟的支持也將消失。

反映失業，通脹和國內生產總值情況的統計報告存在問題，它掩蓋了逐漸惡化的經濟狀況。季節性調整一貫是使得整年的數據走勢顯得平滑，但它似乎並未在設計時把冗長的衰退考慮進去。美國勞工統計局（BLS）使用的生滅模型（birth/death model）也不能反映問題。這個模型是用以估計新創業公司新增的未登記的工作崗位和隨公司停業而消失的工作崗位。這個模型適用於經濟增長時期，在經濟衰退時它會過高估計新增工作崗位的數量。另外，消費者物價指數(CPI)裏假定的替代效應，即消費者會因物價升高而轉而購買廉價的替代商品，會低估通脹。比如，紐約牛脊的漲價不會反映在消費者物價指數裏，因為物價指數假定人們會去購買更便宜的排骨。

粉飾賬目

被廣泛采用的核心通脹排除了食品和能源價格。如果誰想力圖展示對未來前景的極其樂觀估計，那就采用它好了。因此政府據此可低估通脹，高估實際GDP的增長，創造虛幻的繁榮前景。

同樣，用U.3可以低估失業率。媒體標題黨反映的2011年6月的失業率為9.2%。但它不包括頹廢的失業人群，它指的是那些因為沒有工作可做而放棄找工作的那類人群。這類人群不在U.3統計裏。聯邦政府可能覺得這太假了，所以也采用U.6統計，它包括了短期的頹廢失業人群。這個甚少為媒體所報道的數字，反映出2011年6月的失業率為16.2%。Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) 更進一步，采用1980年官方采用的統計方法，它的統計包括了長期頹廢失業人群，這樣，這個失業率就變為了22.7%。換句話說，實際2011年美國失業率介於20%到25%之間。

2011年接下來的日子裏，美國麵臨三個經濟危機，而且會同步發生。原因是美國失業人口上升，GDP萎縮，消費者收入下降，以及因公司離岸外包供應美國市場的生產活動而引起的稅收減少。美國公司非但沒有雇傭本國勞動力在本國生產，以支持美國的就業，給州和地方政府提供稅源，相反，它們把這些好處給了中國，印度和印尼這些國家。這樣一來，經濟刺激措施就無法提振美國經濟，因為工作崗位外流他國，不可能給本地美國人了。

另一個危機是由放鬆監管，舞弊，貪婪以及房貸證券化引起的金融危機。放貸者沒有興趣去檢查房貸人的資質，因為房貸合同被賣給第三方，然後第三方又把這些資產組合交叉賣給另外的投資者。賣掉房貸合同可以賺錢，那麽放貸機構就會發放更多的抵押貸款，從而可以賺更多的錢。為此放貸機構甚至偽造貸款人的信用記錄。隨著房市蓬勃發展，很多人借房貸以倒賣賺錢。隨著房價急劇上漲，首付款和信貸資質變得讓人擔心起來。金融危機因投行通過杠杆放大債務，逃避資本充足要求而加劇惡化。當所有泡沫破裂，房市就崩盤了。

經濟大決戰

第三個危機是1萬5千億美元的年度聯邦預算赤字。要是沒有美聯儲的債務貨幣化措施，即通過購買財政部發行的新發行的短中長期國債來籌措資金，並把發行的錢放在一個新建的活期存款賬戶上，則聯邦政府的維持開支將難以為繼。濫發的財政部債務引起了對美元匯率，美元的儲幣地位以及通脹的擔憂。美元匯率下降，而金銀價格上升。

前麵三個危機中的任何一個都是嚴重的危機。它們一起預示著金融大動蕩的到來。

看起來沒有什麽明顯的出路，就算有，政府也會把注意力集中在其他地方：戰爭。

美國和北約一直以來對伊拉克，阿富汗，巴基斯坦，也門和索馬裏持續進行軍事打擊，2011年3月19日又對利比亞進行軍事襲擊。戰爭進行到現在，對利比亞的侵略的真實目的一直無法被確認，但目的已漸漸清晰，就是把中國在東利比亞的石油投資驅逐出去。和之前的阿拉伯抗議活動不同，利比亞反政府軍是武裝的造反派，背後有中情局的黑手。

利比亞戰爭增加了風險，因為在阿拉伯地區抗議活動的背後是美國對抗中國。類似的，對敘利亞反對派的支持也是為了打擊俄國在塔爾圖斯的海軍基地。推翻阿薩德政府，扶持親美政權將結束俄海軍在地中海的軍事存在。

通過掩蓋對利比亞和敘利亞行動的真實目的，華盛頓力圖避免和中俄進行正麵衝突。但中俄都明白華盛頓在敲打它們的利益。這增加了美國對兩個核大國進攻性政策的魯莽程度。其中一個還是美國外債最大的持有人。

中國在安哥拉和尼日利亞的投資是美國的另一個目標。為了阻止中國在非洲的滲透，美國在前幾年成立了美軍非洲司令部。因擔憂中國的日益強盛，美國采取措施阻止中國獲得獨立的能源來源。這種大遊戲在以往總是引起戰爭衝突，現在又來了。

911事件為美國提供了取代蘇聯威脅的新的借口。來自蘇聯的威脅自91年起就消失了，但接下來的10年裏軍事和安全預算並未降低。911事件使此項預算得以急劇增長。再10年之後，此項預算膨脹到高達1.1萬億美元，占聯邦赤字的70%。赤字使得美元貶值，威脅到美國的評級。

美國集中於中東的戰事，卻丟掉了經濟戰

隨著2011年對經濟複蘇的希望漸漸消失，戰爭的迫切性在加劇。（見Antiwar.com, “Sen. Graham ‘Very Close’ to War.”）

作者簡介：Paul Craig Roberts博士,曾任華爾街日報副編，商業周刊的專欄作家，曾在參議院人事委員會任職。裏根政府時期曾擔任經濟政策財政司助理秘書。受聘於六所大學，曾獲美國財政部銀色勳章及法國總統榮譽勳章。

 

"Economic Armageddon": Washington’s Response to a Failed Ecomomy: More War

by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

 

As the second decade of the 21st century began, the US economy had not recovered from the Great Recession that began in December 2007.

 

The economy’s failure to recover was despite the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in the country’s history. There was a $700 billion bank bailout, a $700 billion stimulus program, a couple of trillion in “quantitative easing,” that is, in debt monetization or the printing of money to finance the government’s expenditures. In addition the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet had expanded by trillions of dollars as the Fed purchased troubled mortgage bonds and derivatives in its effort to keep the financial system solvent and functioning. According to the Government Accountability Office’s audit of the Federal Reserve released by Senator Bernie Sanders, the Federal Reserve provided secret loans to US and foreign banks totaling $16.1 trillion, a sum larger than US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

 

Despite the enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus, the economy remained dead in the water.

 

 

In 2011 the deficit in the federal government’s annual expenditures was 43 percent of the budget. In other words, the US government had to borrow, or the Fed had to monetize, 43 percent of federal expenditures during fiscal year 2011. Despite this unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the economy did not recover.

 

At the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the economy’s decline was temporarily halted by federal subsidies for car and home purchases. The $8,000 housing subsidy helped newlyweds purchase starter homes as the subsidy was a big chunk of the down payment in a depressed housing market. The car purchase subsidy moved future demand into the present. When these subsidies expired, the economy’s life support was turned off.

 

Problems with the statistical reporting of unemployment, inflation, and GDP disguised the worsening economy. Seasonal adjustments used to smooth the data over the course of the year were not designed for prolonged recession. Neither was the “birth-death” model used by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to estimate non-reported jobs from new start-up companies and losses from companies that have gone out of business. The birth-death model was designed for a growing economy and during downturns overestimates the number of new jobs created.

 

The “substitution effect” used in the consumer price index (CPI) underestimates inflation by assuming that consumers substitute cheaper foods for those that rise in price. For example, if the price of New York strip steak rises, this does not show up in the CPI, because of the assumption that people shift their purchases to a less expensive cut such as round steak.

 

COOKING THE BOOKS

 

The widely used “core inflation” measure does not include food or energy. Core inflation is a useful measure for those who want to put an optimistic spin on the outlook.

 

By underestimating inflation, the government can overestimate real GDP growth, thus creating a fictional rosy outlook. Similarly, by using the employment measure known as U.3, the government underestimates unemployment.

 

The “headline” unemployment rate, the one emphasized by the media and the financial press, stood at 9.2 percent in June, 2011. But this rate does not include any discouraged workers. A discouraged worker is a person who has ceased looking for a job, because there are no jobs to be found. A discouraged worker is not considered to be in the work force and is not counted among the U.3 unemployed.

 

The federal government knows that this is phony and has a U.6 measure of unemployment that counts the short- term discouraged. This measure, seldom reported by the media, stood at 16.2 percent in June, 2011.

 

Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) continues to count also the long-term discouraged workers according to the way it was officially done in 1980. In June, 2011, this full measure of the US unemployment rate was 22.7 percent.

 

In other words, by 2011 between one-fifth and one-fourth of the US work force were without jobs.

 

As 2011 progressed, the United States faced three simultaneous economic crises. One crisis arose from the loss of US jobs, GDP, consumer income, and tax base caused by corporations offshoring their production for the US market. Instead of making their products at home with American labor and providing Americans with jobs and states and localities with tax revenues, US corporations provided countries such as China, India, and Indonesia with GDP, jobs, consumer income and a tax base. This practice meant that economic stimulus was unable to revive the US economy as Americans cannot be called back to work jobs that have been moved abroad.

 

Another crisis was the financial crisis resulting from deregulation, fraud, and greed. Securitization of mortgages meant that issuers of mortgages no longer had any incentive to ascertain the credit worthiness of the borrower, because the issuers sold the mortgages to third parties who combined the mortgages with others and sold them to investors.

 

As mortgages were issued for fees, the more mortgages issued, the higher the income from fees. In order to collect fee income, some issuers faked credit reports for borrowers. With the housing market booming, many people took mortgages in order to make money on the resale of the properties. With housing prices rising rapidly, down payments and credit worthiness became concerns of the past. The financial crisis was made worse by the ability of investment banks to get around capital requirements and, thereby, leverage their equity by incurring enormous debt. When all the bubbles burst, the house of cards collapsed.

 

ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON

 

The third crisis was the $1.5+ trillion annual federal budget deficits, which were too large to be financed without the Federal Reserve buying the Treasury’s new debt issues. Known as monetizing debt, the Federal Reserve purchased the Treasury’s bills, notes, and bonds by creating a checking account, which the Treasury would then draw upon to pay the government’s bills. The outpouring of Treasury debt raised concerns about the dollar’s exchange value and role as reserve currency, and it raised fears of inflation. Gold and silver prices rose as the dollar declined in foreign exchange markets.

 

Any one of these crises was serious. All together, they implied economic armageddon.

 

There was no obvious way out, but even if one could be found, the government was focused elsewhere — on wars.

 

In addition to ongoing military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, the US and NATO began military operations against Libya on March 19, 2011. As with the existing wars, the real purpose of the aggression against Libya was not acknowledged, but it became clear that the war’s purpose was to evict China from its oil investments in eastern Libya. Unlike the previous Arab protests, the Libyan rebellion was an armed uprising in which some saw the CIA’s hand.

 

The Libyan war upped the risk, because although hiding behind the veil of Arab protest, the US was actually confronting China. Similarly, in the US-supported armed rebellion in Syria, Washington’s target was the Russian naval base at Tartus. Overthrowing the Assad government in Syria and installing a US friendly regime would put paid to Russia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean.

 

By hiding its purposes behind Arab protests in Libya and Syria that it might have initiated, Washington avoided face-to-face conflicts with China and Russia, but nevertheless the two powers understood that Washington was striking at their interests. This elevated the recklessness of Washington’s aggressive policies by initiating confrontation with two nuclear powers, one of which held financial power over the US as America’s largest foreign creditor.

 

China’s oil investments in Angola and Nigeria were another target. To counter China’s economic penetration of Africa, the US created the American African Command in the closing years of the first decade of the 21st century. Disturbed by China’s rise, the US undertook to prevent China from having independent sources of energy. The great game that in the past has always led to war is being played out once again.

 

September 11, 2001, provided Washington with a new “threat” to replace the Soviet threat, which had expired in 1991. Despite the absence of the Soviet threat, the military/ security budget had been kept alive for a decade. September 11, 2001, injected rapid growth into the military/security bud- get. A decade later the budget stood at approximately $1.1 trillion annually, or approximately 70 percent of the federal deficit which was crippling the dollar and threatening the US Treasury’s credit rating.

 

Focused on Middle Eastern wars, Washington was losing the war for the US economy.

 

As the expectation of economic recovery evaporated over the course of 2011, the need for war became more imperative. (See Antiwar.com, “Sen. Graham ‘Very Close’ to War.”)

 

Former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal and columnist for Business Week, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts served on personal and committee staffs in the House and Senate, and served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy during the Reagan Administration. He has held academic appointments in six universities. He was awarded the US Treasury Silver Medal and the Legion of Honor by the President of France.