正文
純屬個人經驗,沒有任何指導意義.還是灌水,爭取灌點那種比較純粹的水.
FA是慢性子的活,別指望第二天就翻翻.不可能的,但長期的回報會不錯. 種瓜得瓜的那種.
Patience is virtue, virtue is grace...所以FA講究的是那種graceful reward,象慢三,華爾茲...
條件是在initial run-up之前,一旦上去了就隻有能pull back再說了.也可能買入以後幾天會跌下來,然後再run-up,股票跟人一樣,也要休息地.但一般遇到以下幾種情況,我都至少會嚴密關注,甚至長期持有,到一個波段gracefully finished.
- Company announcements like new product line, or new deals,etc. (expect higher revenue and growth down the road.)
- Consistent Q by Q growth, showed signs of gross margin and earnings improvement.
- Recently above industry performance.
- Monopoly player (like google) until monopoly is vanishing.
- Better inventory control.
- FA does not change much but stock price is beaten down hard.
- Positive news like beat Wall Street expectations on earnings, and future guidance.
- Near-term catalysts.
- Cut or significantly reduce expenses 比如裁員 (短期看好,長期看發展)
- Company is doing a road show (showing to Wall Street their product lines and future) 差的公司自然沒東西去show
- Acquisition of competitors (讓自己更強大的辦法有兩個,一個是自己壯大,另一個就消滅敵人)
- Announcement of being acquired (俺的二奶投入產出理論. 被人包了說明自身的價值.自身條件差的想讓人家包人家也不願意,投入與產出不匹配)
- New management teams (新官上任三把火,點燃了自己,也照亮了別人)
- Joining a strategic partner (漫畫三國.先把Pie做大了再自相殘殺.這點中概也慢慢明白起來了. )
- Upgrade by Wall Street or analysts (有點慢,一般upgrade以後就開始南行)
- IPOs after lockup period.
- Insiders and/or management buying.
- Institution holding (%過高,過低都不好)
- Company buys back its own stocks at lower price.
- First time split at higher price (only the first split,要結合market cap和floating shares同時看)
- Companies never split in its history (跟上麵看上去似乎有點衝突.從不split的好公司含金量高)
- Undervalues compare to its own history and industry peers (但不一定準,有的undervalue stocks always traded at discounted price)
- Liquidation and current valuation of the company.
- General market trend.
- Pay attention to the competitors and entire sector.(benchmark. 有比較才有鑒別.)
FA選股,TA選時.要想play the game to maximum,還是要兩者結合,認真做功課.單用TA是quick money, quick loss,但能幫助FA找到一個合理的介入時間和價格.FA很累,很累的,要看很多東西,三表,10-K,10-Q 8-xx什麽的.不是一般人能忍受的孤獨與痛苦.不好玩地.
暫時就想到這些.這裏的高手雲集,俺就是個搗亂老大後院埋下的一棵小毛毛蔥.胡說八道地灌水,個人經驗,沒什麽價值.
FA是慢性子的活,別指望第二天就翻翻.不可能的,但長期的回報會不錯. 種瓜得瓜的那種.
Patience is virtue, virtue is grace...所以FA講究的是那種graceful reward,象慢三,華爾茲...
條件是在initial run-up之前,一旦上去了就隻有能pull back再說了.也可能買入以後幾天會跌下來,然後再run-up,股票跟人一樣,也要休息地.但一般遇到以下幾種情況,我都至少會嚴密關注,甚至長期持有,到一個波段gracefully finished.
- Company announcements like new product line, or new deals,etc. (expect higher revenue and growth down the road.)
- Consistent Q by Q growth, showed signs of gross margin and earnings improvement.
- Recently above industry performance.
- Monopoly player (like google) until monopoly is vanishing.
- Better inventory control.
- FA does not change much but stock price is beaten down hard.
- Positive news like beat Wall Street expectations on earnings, and future guidance.
- Near-term catalysts.
- Cut or significantly reduce expenses 比如裁員 (短期看好,長期看發展)
- Company is doing a road show (showing to Wall Street their product lines and future) 差的公司自然沒東西去show
- Acquisition of competitors (讓自己更強大的辦法有兩個,一個是自己壯大,另一個就消滅敵人)
- Announcement of being acquired (俺的二奶投入產出理論. 被人包了說明自身的價值.自身條件差的想讓人家包人家也不願意,投入與產出不匹配)
- New management teams (新官上任三把火,點燃了自己,也照亮了別人)
- Joining a strategic partner (漫畫三國.先把Pie做大了再自相殘殺.這點中概也慢慢明白起來了. )
- Upgrade by Wall Street or analysts (有點慢,一般upgrade以後就開始南行)
- IPOs after lockup period.
- Insiders and/or management buying.
- Institution holding (%過高,過低都不好)
- Company buys back its own stocks at lower price.
- First time split at higher price (only the first split,要結合market cap和floating shares同時看)
- Companies never split in its history (跟上麵看上去似乎有點衝突.從不split的好公司含金量高)
- Undervalues compare to its own history and industry peers (但不一定準,有的undervalue stocks always traded at discounted price)
- Liquidation and current valuation of the company.
- General market trend.
- Pay attention to the competitors and entire sector.(benchmark. 有比較才有鑒別.)
FA選股,TA選時.要想play the game to maximum,還是要兩者結合,認真做功課.單用TA是quick money, quick loss,但能幫助FA找到一個合理的介入時間和價格.FA很累,很累的,要看很多東西,三表,10-K,10-Q 8-xx什麽的.不是一般人能忍受的孤獨與痛苦.不好玩地.
暫時就想到這些.這裏的高手雲集,俺就是個搗亂老大後院埋下的一棵小毛毛蔥.胡說八道地灌水,個人經驗,沒什麽價值.
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