S&P 1950 Is Definitely In the Cards Now, Maybe Lower

MM不會隻有一腿，還會有一，二，三，，，退。

目標--》1950！

坍塌式的爆爹還會有嗎，我想不會，趨勢是向下的。

未來的走勢：晚上被歐洲左右，白天被數據左右。

Here is the full calendar of next week:

Monday: PMI Services Flash, Dallas Fed Mfg, International Trade

Tuesday: Q1 GDP final revision, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg

Wednesday: Personal Income & Outlays, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, China Manufacturing, Japan Manufacturing

Friday: EMU PMI Manufacturing, PMI Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Global PMI Manufacturing

未來最應該關注的是銀行以及貨幣: 

1. Central bank liquidity actions: I knew this was coming because it's a typical response to financial volatility and credit/counterparty concerns. They are ready for days like this and want to prevent meltdowns or "seized gears" between financial institutions, exchanges, and countries. They pour on the sweet oil of extra "printed" currency to cool the smoking hot gears.

But what it sets up is this question: If markets would have fallen worse without central bank liquidity injections, are we destined to see equity and currency markets continue to probe lower after the juice wears off? I think so. All the central bank interventions do is slow down the speed of volatile cascade days. They postpone the inevitable "clearing" of markets, not prevent it.

2. As I've been telling you, $1.38-$1.40 on the British pound is important multi-decade support zone going back the 1980s! We closed below there at $1.3660 so to me that's telling you the pound is going lower. $1.20 before $1.50 in the next 6 months would be my bet.

In a meeting with the other strategists here last week, I had to argue for why Brexit mattered to US markets. The simple thesis, as you might guess, is that 5% moves in currencies have big ripple effects. 10% moves have giant dislocations.

And it's all about expectations now, a guessing game called "how bad can this get?"

This weekend, I'll be catching up on some bank reports published today (and likely more over the weekend) so that I can evaluate the tenor of institutions as they react to the Brexit vote.

For sure, nothing happens any time soon with the actual mechanics of the UK's membership in the EU. There could be another vote this year. And there will likely be a long, drawn out political process for any changes to actually take place... over the next few years.

But in the mean time, markets can still react with more dislocations.

需要關注的一些ETF：

RUT 3XBEAR -- TZA;   ENERGY 3X BEAR -- ERY

S&P 3X BEAR -- SPXS; EURO 2X BEAR -- EUO

 

[回鄉偶書]

多謝分享！如果2035附近頸線撐不住，同看目標1950.