華府中國
一杯茶， 一台電腦， 時間悄悄從指間流逝；一句話， 一個玩笑，陽光偷偷沿簾縫偷視
轉載者按:
兩個作者根據自己在中國二十年的經曆, 很及時的提醒美國人, 要認識真實的中國, 崛起但也危機重重. 文中提到中國是所有發達國家沒有經曆過的. 未富先老(想到計劃生育的後果嗎? 以及最近的民工荒), 以及極端的水資源短缺和汙染.
兩位作者認為美國媒體最近大力宣揚中國的實力和威脅, 借以唱衰美國, 是少數政治家別有用心. 有意思的是, 中國媒體, 似乎也很熱衷唱衰美國, 並自以為已擠身發達國家行列. (國家整體實力達到發達國家水平比人均生活水平達到發達國家水平應該是兩個完全不同的概念. 如果論打仗, 國家整體實力是很有關聯的, 但居家過日子, 還是用人均比較合理.) 從這方麵講, 兩個國家都需要更多了解真實的對方. 就像孫子兵法裏說的, 知己知彼, 才能百戰不殆.
兩位作者
Steven Mufson and John Pomfret, are reporters on the national
staff of The Washington Post and former Post Beijing bureau chiefs. They
will be online to chat with readers on Monday, March 1, at 12 p.m.
Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.
附原文:
There's a new Red Scare. But is China really so scary?
By Steven Mufson and John Pomfret
Sunday, February 28, 2010
With the American economy struggling and the political system in gridlock, there is one thing everyone in Washington seems to agree on: The Chinese do it better.
Cyberspace? China has an army of hackers ready to read your most intimate e-mails and spy on corporations and super-secret government agencies. (Just ask Google.) Education? China is churning out engineers almost as fast as it's making toys. Military prowess? China is catching up, so quickly that it is about to deploy an anti-ship ballistic missile that could make life on a U.S. aircraft carrier a perilous affair. The economy? China has gone from cheap-clothing-maker to America's banker. Governance? At least they can build a high-speed train. And energy? Look out, Red China is going green!
This new Red Scare says a lot about America's collective psyche at this moment. A nation with a per capita income of $6,546 -- ensconced above Ukraine and below Namibia, according to the International Monetary Fund -- is putting the fear of God, or Mao, into our hearts.
Here's our commander in chief, President Obama, talking about clean energy this month: "Countries like China are moving even faster. . . . I'm not going to settle for a situation where the United States comes in second place or third place or fourth place in what will be the most important economic engine in the future."
And the nation's pundit in chief, Thomas Friedman of the New York Times, even sees some virtue in the Chinese Communist Party's monopoly on political power: "One-party autocracy certainly has its drawbacks. But when it is led by a reasonably enlightened group of people, as China is today, it can also have great advantages."
In the past, when Washington worried about China, it was mainly in terms of a military threat: Would we go to war? Would China replace the Soviet Union as our rival in a post-Cold War world? Or we fretted about it as a global workshop: China would suck manufacturing jobs out of our economy with a cheap currency and cheaper labor. But today, the threat China poses -- real or imagined -- has flooded into every arena in which our two nations can possibly compete.
And it's not just in Washington. Asked in a Washington Post-ABC News poll this month whether this century would be more of an "American century" or more of a "Chinese century," many Americans across the country chose China. Respondents divided evenly between the United States and China on who would dominate the global economy and tilted toward Beijing on who would most influence world affairs overall.
"We have completely lost perspective on what constitutes reality in China today," said Elizabeth Economy, the director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "There is a lot that is incredible about China's economic story, but there is as much that is not working well on both the political and economic fronts. We need to understand the nuances of this story -- on China's innovation, renewables, economic growth, etc. -- to ensure that all the hype from Beijing, and from our own media and politicians, doesn't lead us to skew our own policy."
Having lived in China during the past two decades, we have witnessed and chronicled its remarkable economic and social transformation. But the notion that China poses an imminent threat to all aspects of American life reveals more about us than it does about China and its capabilities. The enthusiasm with which our politicians and pundits manufacture Chinese straw men points more to unease at home than to success inside the Great Wall.
This is not to say that China isn't doing many things right or that we couldn't learn a thing or two from our Chinese friends. But in large part, politicians, activists and commentators push the new Red Scare to advance particular agendas in Washington. If you want to promote clean energy and get the government to invest in this sector, what better way to frame the issue than as a contest against the Chinese and call it the "new Sputnik"? Want to resuscitate the F-22 fighter jet? No better country than China to invoke as the menace of the future.
Take green technology. China does make huge numbers of solar devices, but the most common are low-tech rooftop water-heaters or cheap, low-efficiency photovoltaic panels. For its new showcase of high-tech renewable energy in the western town of Ordos, China is planning to import photovoltaic panels made by U.S.-based First Solar and is hoping the company will set up manufacturing in China. Even if government subsidies allow China to more than triple its photovoltaic installations this year, it will still trail Germany, Italy, the United States and Japan, according to iSuppli, a market research firm.
China does have dozens of wind-turbine manufacturers, but their quality lags far behind that of General Electric, not to mention Europe's Vestas and Siemens. And although a Chinese power company has some technology that might be useful for carbon capture and storage, which many companies see as the key to cutting greenhouse gas emissions from coal plants, it has built only a tiny version to capture carbon dioxide for making soda, rather than exploring needed innovations in storage.
If not for our economic distress, we might be applauding China's clean-energy advances; after all, one first-place position we have ceded to China is in greenhouse gas emissions. Limiting those emissions is a job big enough for both of our economies to tackle.
But domestic anxieties have morphed into anxiety about China. "Every day we wait in this nation, China is going to eat our lunch," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said this month. Arguing for nuclear power, as well as renewable energy sources and cleaner ways to use coal, Graham said: "The Chinese don't need 60 votes. I guess they just need one guy's vote over there -- and that guy's voted. . . . And we're stuck in neutral here."
Like others, Graham emphasizes the China threat to propel his fellow lawmakers into action. "Six months ago, my biggest worry was that an emissions deal would make American business less competitive compared to China," he said on a different day. "Now my concern is that every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy."
In other areas, politicians and pundits also have a tendency to overestimate China's strengths -- in ways that leave China looking more ominous than it really is. Recent reports about how China is threatening to take the lead in scientific research seem to ignore the serious problems it is facing with plagiarism and faked results. Projections of China's economic growth seem to shortchange the country's looming demographic crisis: It is going to be the first nation in the world to grow old before it gets rich. By the middle of this century the percentage of its population above age 60 will be higher than in the United States, and more than 100 million Chinese will be older than 80. China also faces serious water shortages that could hurt enterprises from wheat farms to power plants to microchip manufacturers.
And about all those engineers? In 2006, the New York Times reported that China graduates 600,000 a year compared with 70,000 in the United States. The Times report was quoted on the House floor. Just one problem: China's statisticians count car mechanics and refrigerator repairmen as "engineers."
We've seen this movie before, and it didn't end in disaster for the United States. Some decades ago, Americans were obsessed with another emerging Asian giant: Japan. People were so overwrought about the "threat" that autoworkers smashed imported Japanese cars. On June 19, 1982, a Chrysler supervisor and his stepson, who had been laid off from a Michigan auto plant, killed a Chinese American man they apparently thought was Japanese. Author Michael Crichton's 1992 potboiler "Rising Sun" summed up the nation's fears. In 1991, 60 percent of Americans in an ABC News/NHK poll said they viewed Japan's economic strength as a threat to the United States.
But then something happened. Japan's economy lost its game. The 1990s became a "lost decade," so much so that during the toughest days of the recent financial crisis, Japan was invoked as a cautionary tale, lest we not do enough to jump-start our economy.
Now, some experts, such as Kenneth Lieberthal, a former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council and a man who has taught us a lot about China, say using China's green-tech rise as an excuse to whip America into shape isn't such a bad idea, because the result -- a cleaner environment or a more high-tech workforce -- makes a lot of sense. And certainly it's better to compete on that than on the size of our respective militaries.
But there is a certain irony to the new Red Scare. When we reported from China in the 1990s, some Chinese neoconservatives achieved rock-star popularity there for promoting the notion that the United States was conspiring to contain China, militarily and economically. They argued that global economic growth was a zero-sum game and that China's gain would be America's loss; as a result, Beijing had to be more assertive in its dealings with the United States.
Legions of U.S. diplomats and business leaders said no, no, no. They assured China that the two nations could grow together. Americans tried to teach Chinese the meaning of the expression "win-win."
And that is the way introductory economics courses teach it. As N. Gregory Mankiw, a former chairman of President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, writes in his popular textbook: Trade "is not like a sports contest, where one side wins and the other side loses. In fact, the opposite is true. Trade between two countries can make each country better off."
And yet a sports contest -- or worse -- is exactly what the U.S.-Chinese relationship sounds like these days. In discussing energy at the Feb. 3 meeting with governors, Obama warned: "We can't afford to spin our wheels while the rest of the world speeds ahead."
Speeding ahead is a worthy goal, but the United States does not need a bogeyman on its tail to get moving. What may seem like a throwaway line here could damage U.S. relations there, and there are enough reasons for tension with China without manufacturing new ones. As the Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said: "If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril."
China is no enemy, but inflating the challenge from China could be just as dangerous as underestimating it.
Q & A on There's a new Red Scare. But is China really so scary?
華盛頓郵報周日刊登題為“新一輪紅色恐慌，但中國真那麽可怕嗎？”的文章，指出中國不是敵人，誇大來自中國的挑戰正如低估其一樣危險。文章摘譯如下：
美國經濟舉步蹣跚、政治陷入僵局之際，似乎在華盛頓人們達成一種共識：中國人做得較好。
新一輪的紅色恐慌說明了美國人當下的集體心理。互聯網上，中國駭客會讀到你的私人電子郵件、刺探商業情報及政府機密；教育方麵，中國生產工程師就像製造玩具那麽快；軍事力量呢，中國正快速趕上，中國將要部署反艦導彈足以令美國航空母艦官兵身處險境；經濟層麵，中國已不再是廉價服裝生產商，而是美國的銀行家；政府管製方麵，至少中國有能力建設高速鐵路；能源呢，紅色中國正在發展綠色能源。
從前，華盛頓主要擔憂中國軍事威脅，又或為中國成為世界工廠而煩惱，憂心搶走製造業工作機會。然而現在，中國在所有方麵，不管是真實的還是想象出來的，均對美國構成競爭。
這種想法不僅出現在華盛頓。本月，華盛頓郵報與美國廣播公司的最新民意調查發現，當被問題本世紀將是“美國世紀”還是“中國世紀”，更多美國人選擇了後者。被問及哪個國家將主宰全球經濟，受訪者各半選擇美國或中國，傾向北京將更多影響國際事務。
將中國視為美國人各生活層麵迫在眉睫的敵人，這更多揭示我們自身而非中國。我們的政治家和權威們熱衷於製造“中國稻草人”旨在安撫國內不安，多於針對中國的成功。
這並不是說中國沒有處事正確或我們不從中國學點兒什麽。但是，在很大程度上，政治家、活動家和評論家為新一輪“紅色恐慌”推波助瀾，目的是推動其在華府的個別議程。比如，若要複活F-22戰機，還有那個國家比中國更適合援引為未來威脅。
美國外交關係委員會的亞洲研究主任伊麗莎白.埃克諾米認為，美國對中國的真實情形並不了解，中國經濟發展確實相當好，然而政治經濟運作也存在問題。我們應該了解中國故事的各層麵的細微差別，以令來自中國和美國媒體和政客的炒作不會曲解我們的政策。
美國國內的憂慮已經演變為對中國的憂慮。
這個經濟危機是自由經濟的通病。 處理措施現在愈來愈多， 政府的監管是需要的。
但並不是什麽都是政府主導。
打仗是為了secure將來的能源， 以及戰略部署， 而且打仗是在其他國家打。
中國舉辦奧運蓋得那些龐然大物， 既占地， 又沒用。在自己家門口， 每天看著都
礙事。
得了.那些戰爭,以及軍事上的開銷,都夠開無數個奧運了.別跟我說戰爭給我們帶來好處,那個伊戰打了那麽多年,油價也沒下來.工作機會也沒增加,我作為一個普通老百姓日子比九十年代差遠了.還好美國有很多明白人,這個國家才有希望
"崇尚自由經濟"的惡果就是從2008到現在的差點要了美國命的經濟危機
美國政府的花費一大部分是醫療， 教育， 退休保險， 這些都是又直接回到老百姓
手裏。 美國政府雖然赤字， 但是窮政府， 捉襟見肘， 不會大手大腳花錢， 其實
很多時候納稅人的錢是不能花的， 比如參加世博和舉辦奧運， 這兩點中國政府可
是花了大錢。
如果美國政府象你所說的那麽節約的話,哪來那麽赤字,O8今年的財政預算,是稅收的1.6倍,這叫節約?還好美國有象Peter Schiff這樣的明白人,而不是單單象你這樣隻會唱讚歌的人
我覺得你的回答是很典型的轉換話題。 我說得是中國國家主導， 不完全市場經濟下
造成的貪汙浪費， 利用率很低的工程項目， 以及投資一窩風造成的爛尾樓等等。
我在美國很少看到浪費， 尤其是政府， 花錢是很小心的。
你說的華爾街， 是指金融領域， 在集資方麵出的問題。 這個問題， 中國銀行及
民間集資， 照樣會出問題。 大家比較， 最好是蘋果比蘋果， 桔子比桔子， 不要
為了贏而偷換話題， 這是小兒科的把戲。
任何事情都不能極端
中國的麵子工程是極端集權經濟
席卷資本主義世界的經濟危機何嚐不是極端自由經濟缺乏監管
另外，以現在的經驗看，錢並不是有限的,貨幣可以無限發行
看津巴布韋就知道了，整個國家最不缺的就是"錢" (廢紙)
現在已經不是金本位時代了
中國領導人崇尚集中力量辦大事, 人多力量大. 大家雖然看到很多基礎設施的建立
, 但也看到很多麵子工程, 過分豪華的建築以及造成的浪費, 還有也許不少很多不
該上馬的大工程項目, 建成之後沒有達到理想的應用價值.
但美國人很早就認識到, 國家主導的投資, 是效率最低的, 包括可能的貪汙腐敗和
浪費. 他們崇尚自由經濟, 讓私人企業和個人決定如何花錢和投資. 其實不管是國
家, 還是個人做決定, 一個國家的錢就那麽多, 經濟學上講究的就是如何更有效的
分配這筆錢, 以達到最大的利用率.
, 至少在美國官員看來, 都加深了美國人的感覺: 中國想對抗美國.
另外, 關於對台灣售武以及會見達賴, 中國的反映也是想要立竿見影. 其實, 中國
也應該從曆史的角度, 影響要慢慢地建立, 而不是給人強硬和霸道的口氣, 限製人
家不許做這做那. 西方對人的自由和自己行事的權力, 確實是很看中的, 不是在中
國, 可以對人頤指氣使, 盛氣淩人.
覺得中國對外施加影響力, 應建立自己有效的軟實力, 這個真的要大智慧和遠見卓
識, 弄個孔子學院未必就能達到效果. 當然, 自己最好內外一致, 自己搞出來的東
西自己首先要相信, 要在國內行得通, 比如建立真正的公民社會和真正保障人民當
家作主的權力, 等等
, 狼來了"的情緒, 在關鍵時刻送來及時的毛毛雨, 讓大家都冷靜點. 過分地炒作
中國的威脅, 過長時間地把中國當成假象敵, 結果有可能自己搞出一個真的敵人和
對手. 如果兩個在地球上麵積和人口都是很領先的大國, 真的發生正麵衝突, 也許
不光對兩國不利, 對整個人類也不是好事. 而且, 美國和中國, 到如今, 也沒有真
正的利益衝突, 更多的倒是利益互補和互惠互利. 中國和美國在更多時候利益是一
致的. 中國買很多美國國債, 但中國對美國的出口也提供中國很大部分人的就業機
會. 所以, 如果兩國有遠見的政治家, 能夠帶領兩國人民, 走上和平共處, 互惠互
利的共同發展道路, 將是兩國人民之福, 也是世界和平的穩定性基石. 要做到這一
點, 兩國最需要的是加強更多了解和文化交流. 中國和美國都需要更多的理解和尊
重雙方文化上的不同和製度上的差異. 當然如果能在好的方麵互相學習和進步, 求
同存異, 兩國間的隔閡會愈來愈減少. 兩國對雙方文化都精通的人士在這一過程中
將起到穿針引線, 提供重要的化解危機和衝突的橋梁作用.
以下摘自：http://campus.chsi.com.cn/xy/news/rd/200905/20090527/24684668-2.html
“據有關數據顯示，全國普通高校每年近500萬畢業生中(2008年畢業生總數預計將達到559萬人)，學工科的僅占30%，而這30%的工科生中，有一多半學的是回報較高的熱門高科技工科專業，如計算機、生物工程、通訊、信息、電子、新材料等。在傳統工科專業中，最熱門的是建築專業，招生與畢業人數在傳統工科中一直居前。另外，電力和石油因為壟斷行業，專業報考也比較熱。而剩下的機械、造船、鋼鐵、化工、紡織、煤炭、汽車、製藥、地質、水力水電等傳統工科專業，每年畢業生人數僅50多萬，占全國普通高校每年畢業生總數的1/10。隨著我國紡織、機械、造船、鋼鐵、化工等傳統工業的迅速發展，對傳統工科專業畢業生需求成幾倍、十幾倍的迅猛增長。用人單位蜂擁到學校去搶畢業生也不能滿足需要。”
我這裏抽幾個問題給大家看看：
Q
China's fault?
Great article, many thanks for attempting to debunk the mass anxiety regarding
China. My question: Can some of this "new Red Scare" be legitimately blamed
on China? That is to say, is there something new/unusual/"wrong" that they
are doing to rile the American psyche?
━
March 01, 2010 11:33 AM
A.
John Pomfret writes:
Good question. China's tone over the past year or so has become increasingly
strident, according to US officials. So they haven't actually been helping
their cause. Their reactions to the recent Taiwan arms sales or President
Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama have been generally more strident and
pointed than before.
━ March 01, 2010 12:06 PM
Q.
China
China may be thriving, and we might not be, but can we really say that China
is "well governed?" Would you like your children to go to a Chinese elementary
school? Would you put your ailing parents in a Chinese nursing home? Will
you drink water out of the tap in Chongqing? I am happy that China is doing
better than ever, and I hope that we can start do better than ever too...
━
February 28, 2010 4:43 AM
A.
Steven Mufson writes:
I think you've hit the nail on the head. That's a variation of what we're
saying. Yes, China is making incredible progress and will be a bigger and
bigger factor in world economics and politics. But...it still has a ton
of problems.
━ March 01, 2010 12:27 PM
Q
China
As someone who lives in Asia and travels to Beijing on a regular basis,
make mistake that the Chinese do see the world right now in a zero sum game
━
February 28, 2010 6:10 AM
A.
John Pomfret writes:
I think the zero-sum mentality in Beijing is a powerful one.
━ March 01, 2010 12:31 PM
Q.
China's "Place in the Sun"
Given your many years experience in China, please address the issue of any
lingering sense among Chinese that they have been kept down by malevolent
outside powers and that they must seize what they are entitled to.
Mao Tse Tung, at his moment of triumph, famously declared that "China has
stood up," suggesting that his revolution and seizure of power established
China among nations.
A sense of denied entitlement prevailed in Germany in the last 20 years
before World War 1, German policy makers and public opinion felt that the
other powers has denied Germans their "place in the sun."
The naval race with Britain, the Agadir incident, the belated rush to colonies
in Africa, all were manifestations of this and contributed to the tensions
that led to WWI. Do you see similar public and official opinions in China
today?
━
February 28, 2010 10:30 AM
A.
John Pomfret writes:
I think there are two competing strains in Beijing right now. On one side
there are people who believe that China should continue taking a low profile
in international affairs and hide from the spotlight. There are others,
however, who embrace this "now is China's time" view. They believe China
should be bolder and more assertive. It's unclear which side will hold sway.
More broadly, the world has always had a difficult time managing the rise
of a new power. Britain handled America's rise well. It was tough but they
made room -- but again we were very close to them culturally. Germany and
Japan were disasters. I think it's an open but very important question how
we will handle China's rise. So far, the US has done pretty well, though.
But it's still early days.
━ March 01, 2010 12:36 PM
Q
Democracy and Living Standards
One of the most interesting aspects of China's economic success has been
the demise of the idea that living standards could only flourish in a democracy.
The so called Chinese economic model has become attractive to despotic regimes
such as Sudan and Zimbabwe, and the Chinese leadership, with their policy
of not interfering in the political leadership of other countries, could
actually encourage more such despotic regimes.
I suppose that time will tell if China becomes more democratic or if it
will suffer an economic impasse like Japan, but don't you think that the
accendency of China in it's current state will alter the geopolitical realities
and expectations around the world?
━
March 01, 2010 10:38 AM
A.
John Pomfret writes:
This is a great topic. With China's rise you now hear people talking about
the China model or the Beijing Consensus -- a road map for continued authoritarian
government with market-oriented reforms.
That's what's been so successful in China, so far.
The issue though is will it be able to propel China up the value chain.
Will a political system that doesn't allocate capital very efficiently and
controls information flow be able to ride heard over an economy in the information
age?
━ March 01, 2010 12:39 PM
Q.
Is China really so scary?
Steve and John, Good piece that brings some balance to the issue. Rather
than look at different asopects of China's current conditions, would it
not be much better to looks at the long term trends? For example in higher
education where was China 20 years ago and where will they be in 10 years?
Snapshots of now look either bad or good depending on where and from what
anglke the picture is taken.
━
February 28, 2010 4:36 PM
A.
Steven Mufson writes:
Snapshots can be limited, but trend lines can be misleading. We tend to
see trendlines as straight lines when that's rarely the case. Moreover,
there is the fact that improvement from a very low base is relatively easy,
but it becomes harder and harder to improve at the same rate from a higher
base.
A word on education: You hear a lot of complaints these days about access
to good schools. Chinese people have higher standards / expectations for
their children but there are only so many top schools.
━ March 01, 2010 12:50 PM
Q
Things May Not Be What They Seem To Be
I'm Chinese-American, and I know both cultures. It's difficult for Americans
to understand Chinese. Chinese media will publish mostly praise and good
news, but the American media will be contentious. For a person, American
people wear their clothes so that they are comfortable, but Chinese emphasize
how their clothes look to others, even if they are uncomfortable.
━
February 28, 2010 6:41 PM
A.
John Pomfret writes:
I am always kind of leery about people saying how different the Chinese
are from the Americans. Actually, I believe as big continental countries
we have a lot more in common than people from other countries. As for the
media, China's will change with the times.
━ March 01, 2010 12:54 PM
多觀察一下西方媒體，其實唱衰，抨擊中國，認為中國將會崩潰的文章在幾年前還是絕對主流（其實現在也是主流），隻不過這幾年才出現了一些少數不同的聲音。給讀者造成西方媒體捧殺中國印象的一個主要原因是，中文媒體往往把捧中國的文章翻譯刊登，隨著“客觀”評價中國的文章在西方媒體裏稍一增加，中國讀者就會覺得西方媒體裏到處都是讚美中國的聲音。
再次，中國媒體總體上並不熱衷唱衰美國，對美國的評論報導中，其論調大致與西方媒體相似，並沒有什麽出格的地方。中國領導人及老百姓也清楚中國與西方的差距不是短期能夠追上的。
此外，對於計劃生育政策，本人也認為應該適當放寬。但環境汙染問題，我倒不擔心，這一點全國上下都有共識，隨著經濟的發展，汙染會逐步解決的。