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極限炒股法-分為2部分: 1)穩健型投資 2)超激進型投資-每月使之翻倍.Email: info@Investor777.com
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血洗會發生嗎? 準備做空,兼論做空機製和一個經典案例

(2009-09-12 14:43:29) 下一個
Investor777 (09/12/2009)

Today I will talk about a few things:

1. Investor777’s take on the market:

Personally, I think the market is due for some correction. I could be wrong, let the market decide. The market has gone up 64.1% since 03/13/09 (NAZ 1268-2081), without a significant pullback. It is time for some consolidation. Otherwise if bulls run too fast, they may be tripped by the bears. Actually it will be a good thing for some pullback so bears can come out. Then we can get rid of all the weak hands; kill all the bears and move to the next height. So if market starts to go down, I wish it go down hard so we can rise much higher latter on.

If a bloodbath will happen, let it happen!

I must reiterate that I am bullish long term. And the market has not reached its high peak yet. 早在2009-07-12, investor777在大盤連跌四周的情況下在DQ發貼,希望穩定軍心,並說
“下周大盤走勢至關重要,可能將決定2009年全年的走勢 ......
金融股之戰猶如淮海戰役,將決定多空方勝負,目前來看我們認為多方的勝算仍然大於空方。"
Please visit my blog at below to prove that, or if you want to learn more about my take on the market and stocks.

Like its name “short” is a short-term play to reduce risk and it is way to make money when market going down.

2. My take on shorting:

1) DOW/S&P/Naz走勢同步確認反轉, long term the market is going up.
2) You cannot hold a short position too long; it is not a long term play. The financial crisis like the one in 2008 only happen a couple of times in 100 years. Put a proper stop in if you short.
3) If you are a new player in shorting, you can start to play with it by shorting a very small position to try it out first. I do NOT recommend shorting if you are a new player in trading.
4) If you are not a sophisticated trader, do not use highly leveraged ETFs as a shorting mechanism such as FAZ. You can start to play with less leveraged ETFs such as SKF / FXP first. Once you have played with them for a long time with proven tracking record then you can start to use those more aggressive tools.
5) Do NOT short strong stocks or the leading stocks, you well could get burned! Dot NOT rush to short, let the market gives you a signal first.

3. 做空機製【轉帖】
  認為價格將要下跌時,借來貨物賣出,待平倉時在買進還給第三人,將所交的定金收回的方式。
  做空簡單說就是:沒有貨先賣後買。舉例說明:你看到10元的A股票,分析其後市在一定時間裏會跌至8元,而你手中 又沒有持有A股票,這時你可以從持有A股票人的手中借來一定的A股票,並簽好約定,在一定的時間裏要把這些借來的股票還給原持有人,假設現在你借來100股A股票,以10元的價位賣出,得現金1000元,如在規定時間內,該股果真跌到8元,你以8元買進A股票100股,花費資金800元,並將這100股還給原持有人,原持有人股數未變,而你則賺到了200元現金。做空機製不光指股票的做空,還包括指數的做空等。



4. 做空雅芳賺了100萬 金融大鱷索羅斯發跡史 【轉帖】


1930年,索羅斯出生在匈牙利首都布達佩斯。1947年秋天,17歲的索羅斯隻身離開匈牙利,經由瑞士到達倫敦。索羅斯於1949年開始進入倫敦經濟學院學習。畢業後進入金融界,很快成為了炒匯高手。

薦股“安聯保險” 一舉成名

1956年索羅斯帶著5000美元移民美國。不久受雇於梅爾公司,做套利交易員。1959年,索羅斯跳槽到佛桑公司,仍做套利交易員,在倫敦和紐約金融市場間做套利操作,直到上世紀60年代末。雖然沒有發財,但卻積累了豐富的經驗。

1960年,他發現德國安聯保險公司的股票遠遠低於它的資產價值,便撰文推薦別人投資。摩根和德利富斯基金采納並開始大量買進聯合的股票。結果聯合的股價上漲3倍,索羅斯也頓時名聲大振。1961年12月18日,索羅斯拿到了綠卡,成為美國公民。

做空雅芳 賺了100萬美元

1973年,索羅斯聯手羅傑斯成立了索羅斯基金管理公司,當年投資國防類股票,結果賺了17%。
1975年,索羅斯再次出手做空“雅芳”。為放空“雅芳”,索羅斯以120美元的市價,借了一萬股“雅芳”賣出。正像索羅斯所預料的,“雅芳”持續暴跌,兩年後,索羅斯隻用20美元每股的市價就購回了這一萬股“雅芳”,大賺了100萬美元 。


祝大家過得愉快!

investor777的博客
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myindex.php?blogID=44651




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閱讀 ()評論 (3)
評論
2brakefirst 回複 悄悄話 Do you think now market pullback is over yet or more pullback is coming immediately? Thank you very much.
optionguy 回複 悄悄話 usually OE friday is a good excuse for the market to turn, if it dosn't happen this friday, it will probably happen next monday
berwang 回複 悄悄話 Thanks
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