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The Santa Clara County housing market had its worst year in modern history in 2008, marked by the largest yearly percentage drop in home prices in at least two decades, a frozen mortgage market and a surge in foreclosures.
The year also peeled tens of billions of dollars in equity off the valley\'s housing stock. Much of the decline came in home values inflated during a bubble market in lower-priced areas, although that\'s cold comfort to affected homeowners.
The median sale price of all homes, including new homes and condos, dropped 31.8 percent from last January to December, real estate research service MDA DataQuick said Wednesday.
That drop is the largest decline in our series back to 1988, said Andrew LePage of DataQuick.
And the median price for resale homes in the valley was driven down to $457,000, a level not seen since January 2002, by a combination of factors — a dwindling number of sales of high-end homes in places like Cupertino, Los Altos and Los Gatos, and a growing number in the low-cost areas hardest hit by foreclosures, like East San Jose.
While foreclosures were the story for 2008 in the South Bay, the big question this year is the fate of the high-end market, and there\'s some debate about that.
Houses in upper-income areas that require very large loans are simply not selling. What is remarkable is that so much Bay Area activity is still on hold, waiting the turbulence out, said John Walsh,
MDA DataQuick president. The company released December sales figures Wednesday.
With not much of a market in higher-priced homes, it\'s hard to tell what the median price is in those areas, though one study by real estate research service Marcus & Millichap of Encino expects upper-end prices to hold steady this year.
The upper end of the market saw far fewer subprime and alt-A loans and aggressive sales tactics, said Hessam Nadji, the firm\'s director of research. There\'s less foreclosure and less delinquency, which is resulting in fewer sales, he said.
What happens next depends on the job market, he added.
But Jon Haveman of Beacon Economics said a lot of housing-market gains we\'ve had in the last five years were an illusion.
The next shoe to drop could be prices of high-end homes, he said. There\'s more pain and suffering to come, he predicted.
There is a lot of uncertainty right now in the marketplace, said Robert Aldana of HRCS in East San Jose, a real estate sales and mortgage modification firm. Lenders are still tough, if not getting tougher. Unemployment figures have risen. I think that the next six months will say a lot as to what will happen in the next two or more years.
The mortgage market pendulum has swung from crazy lending to crazy non-non-lending, added John Karevoll of MDA DataQuick. Many upper-end deals are just sitting there, waiting for financing.
He said there may be a decline of 15 percent to 20 percent in the high-end areas. It\'s not going be as spectacular as in other areas.
And while things are slow on the high end, they\'re picking up in the lower end of the market, powered largely by foreclosure sales.
The good news, said Stephen Levy of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, is there are sales at foreclosure prices. There are people stepping forward even at a time when it is difficult to get credit and people are scared.
Half the homes sold throughout the Bay Area in December were foreclosures, DataQuick reported. In Santa Clara County, foreclosures accounted for 41.2 percent of all homes sold, compared with 8 percent a year ago.
And in those sales, the region gave up the phenomenal gains of the past few years.
Data from three real estate research firms also found:
The valley\'s housing stock fell in value by $44.2 billion, from $404.5 billion to $360.3 billion from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of last year, according to Zillow.com. The company also said homes sold at a loss accounted for 50 percent of homes sold in the third quarter of 2008.
The largest losses were concentrated in a few cities. Double-digit losses were recorded from the third quarter of 2007 to the same period in 2008 in San Jose, Gilroy, San Martin, Morgan Hill, Milpitas and Santa Clara.
Some high-price communities saw increases in median home prices in the first nine months of 2008, according to a study by Marcus and Millichap. Using DataQuick data, the study found home-price gains during 2008 of 17 percent in Palo Alto; 8.8 percent in Cupertino; 7.6 percent in Mountain View and 5.7 percent in Los Gatos. Other communities posting gains included Los Altos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga.
Contact Pete Carey at pcarey@mercurynews.com.
DECEMBER HOME SALES AND PRICES
In some counties, purchases of previously foreclosed homes helped drive sales higher last month compared to December 2007. In the most expensive counties, sales slowed. Median prices fell across the region. Data measure sales of resale houses, unless noted otherwise.
County or area Number sold Chg. from Dec. 2007 Median price Chg. from Dec. 2007
Alameda 1,134 95.9% $350,000 -36.7%
Contra Costa 1,384 152.6% $240,000 -48.4%
Marin 114 -20.3% $675,000 -19.2%
Napa 89 97.8% $370,000 -30.7%
San Francisco 180 -19.6% $652,500 -11.8%
San Mateo 343 -3.7% $565,000 -26.1%
Santa Clara 877 21.6% $457,000 -38.2%
Santa Cruz 121 31.5 $429,000 -36.9%
Solano 623 185.8% $215,000 -41.1%
Sonoma 427 98.6% $320,000 -26.7%
Bay Area 5,171 69.6% $330,000 -46.8%
Santa Clara condos 249 6.9% $300,000 -38.0%
Bay Area condos 1,009 25.8% $247,341 -48.5%
Santa Clara all 1,265 0.0% $436,000 -33.4%
Bay Area all 6,889 36.0% $330,000 -43.8%
Santa Cruz County is not included in the Bay Area totals. Data is based on completed sales of previously owned single-family houses or condos as recorded by counties in December 2008. The Bay Area and Santa Clara County all\'\' figures are for new and resale houses and condos, combined.
The year also peeled tens of billions of dollars in equity off the valley\'s housing stock. Much of the decline came in home values inflated during a bubble market in lower-priced areas, although that\'s cold comfort to affected homeowners.
The median sale price of all homes, including new homes and condos, dropped 31.8 percent from last January to December, real estate research service MDA DataQuick said Wednesday.
That drop is the largest decline in our series back to 1988, said Andrew LePage of DataQuick.
And the median price for resale homes in the valley was driven down to $457,000, a level not seen since January 2002, by a combination of factors — a dwindling number of sales of high-end homes in places like Cupertino, Los Altos and Los Gatos, and a growing number in the low-cost areas hardest hit by foreclosures, like East San Jose.
While foreclosures were the story for 2008 in the South Bay, the big question this year is the fate of the high-end market, and there\'s some debate about that.
Houses in upper-income areas that require very large loans are simply not selling. What is remarkable is that so much Bay Area activity is still on hold, waiting the turbulence out, said John Walsh,
MDA DataQuick president. The company released December sales figures Wednesday.
With not much of a market in higher-priced homes, it\'s hard to tell what the median price is in those areas, though one study by real estate research service Marcus & Millichap of Encino expects upper-end prices to hold steady this year.
The upper end of the market saw far fewer subprime and alt-A loans and aggressive sales tactics, said Hessam Nadji, the firm\'s director of research. There\'s less foreclosure and less delinquency, which is resulting in fewer sales, he said.
What happens next depends on the job market, he added.
But Jon Haveman of Beacon Economics said a lot of housing-market gains we\'ve had in the last five years were an illusion.
The next shoe to drop could be prices of high-end homes, he said. There\'s more pain and suffering to come, he predicted.
There is a lot of uncertainty right now in the marketplace, said Robert Aldana of HRCS in East San Jose, a real estate sales and mortgage modification firm. Lenders are still tough, if not getting tougher. Unemployment figures have risen. I think that the next six months will say a lot as to what will happen in the next two or more years.
The mortgage market pendulum has swung from crazy lending to crazy non-non-lending, added John Karevoll of MDA DataQuick. Many upper-end deals are just sitting there, waiting for financing.
He said there may be a decline of 15 percent to 20 percent in the high-end areas. It\'s not going be as spectacular as in other areas.
And while things are slow on the high end, they\'re picking up in the lower end of the market, powered largely by foreclosure sales.
The good news, said Stephen Levy of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, is there are sales at foreclosure prices. There are people stepping forward even at a time when it is difficult to get credit and people are scared.
Half the homes sold throughout the Bay Area in December were foreclosures, DataQuick reported. In Santa Clara County, foreclosures accounted for 41.2 percent of all homes sold, compared with 8 percent a year ago.
And in those sales, the region gave up the phenomenal gains of the past few years.
Data from three real estate research firms also found:
The valley\'s housing stock fell in value by $44.2 billion, from $404.5 billion to $360.3 billion from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of last year, according to Zillow.com. The company also said homes sold at a loss accounted for 50 percent of homes sold in the third quarter of 2008.
The largest losses were concentrated in a few cities. Double-digit losses were recorded from the third quarter of 2007 to the same period in 2008 in San Jose, Gilroy, San Martin, Morgan Hill, Milpitas and Santa Clara.
Some high-price communities saw increases in median home prices in the first nine months of 2008, according to a study by Marcus and Millichap. Using DataQuick data, the study found home-price gains during 2008 of 17 percent in Palo Alto; 8.8 percent in Cupertino; 7.6 percent in Mountain View and 5.7 percent in Los Gatos. Other communities posting gains included Los Altos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga.
Contact Pete Carey at pcarey@mercurynews.com.
DECEMBER HOME SALES AND PRICES
In some counties, purchases of previously foreclosed homes helped drive sales higher last month compared to December 2007. In the most expensive counties, sales slowed. Median prices fell across the region. Data measure sales of resale houses, unless noted otherwise.
County or area Number sold Chg. from Dec. 2007 Median price Chg. from Dec. 2007
Alameda 1,134 95.9% $350,000 -36.7%
Contra Costa 1,384 152.6% $240,000 -48.4%
Marin 114 -20.3% $675,000 -19.2%
Napa 89 97.8% $370,000 -30.7%
San Francisco 180 -19.6% $652,500 -11.8%
San Mateo 343 -3.7% $565,000 -26.1%
Santa Clara 877 21.6% $457,000 -38.2%
Santa Cruz 121 31.5 $429,000 -36.9%
Solano 623 185.8% $215,000 -41.1%
Sonoma 427 98.6% $320,000 -26.7%
Bay Area 5,171 69.6% $330,000 -46.8%
Santa Clara condos 249 6.9% $300,000 -38.0%
Bay Area condos 1,009 25.8% $247,341 -48.5%
Santa Clara all 1,265 0.0% $436,000 -33.4%
Bay Area all 6,889 36.0% $330,000 -43.8%
Santa Cruz County is not included in the Bay Area totals. Data is based on completed sales of previously owned single-family houses or condos as recorded by counties in December 2008. The Bay Area and Santa Clara County all\'\' figures are for new and resale houses and condos, combined.
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