私宅價格漲幅收緊

龔慧婷 (2011-10-04)

歐美局勢不明朗，本地私宅價格在第三季雖然還在上漲，但漲幅已連續第八個季度放緩。不過，在強勁需求帶動下，大眾私宅的價格的漲勢加速。 　　市區重建局剛公布的第三季私宅價格預估數據顯示，價格漲幅已從今年第二季的上漲2％，收緊到隻上漲1.3％，挺進到205.7點的曆史新高位。 　　齊樂行研究與谘詢部門主管王德輝認為，私宅價格上漲1.3％是意料中事，因為這反映了市場因供應增加而價格逐步放緩的情況。 　　王德輝指出：“從09年中的市場低穀至今，私宅價格已上漲了54.3％，加上金融市場動蕩，（買家）對已在巔峰徘徊的價格有更大的抗拒心理。” 　　世邦魏理仕執行董事李曉和則認為，這顯示價格已趨向穩定。 　　欣樂國際執行董事麥俊榮相信，私宅價格的漲幅在過去兩年逐漸放緩，部分原因是金融市場越來越不明朗所導致。 　　在第三季，價格上漲最快的依然是代表大眾私宅的中央區以外（OCR），價格從第二季的上漲1.7％，加快到上漲2.1％。 　　分析師認為，這主要是因為大眾私宅在市場上還是“搶手貨“、目前借貸利率又低、加上還有積壓需求的緣故。 　　王德輝指出，在今年第一季，大眾私宅領域售出的單位，占總數的53％，第二季增加到61％，7月和8月分別占68％。 　　一些賣得不錯的新大眾私宅和中檔私宅，如：優和苑（euHabitat）（中位數價格是每平方英尺1015元）、The Luxurie（每平方英尺1053元）、Seastrand（每平方英尺930元）和Thomson Grand （每平方英尺1300元）。 　　李曉和相信，這可能帶動了大眾私宅和中檔私宅的價格增長。 　　代表高檔領域的核心中央區（CCR）和代表中檔領域的其他中央區（RCR），則因為需求沒有那麽強勁，價格漲幅收緊或橫擺。 　　高檔私宅價格從第二季的上漲1.6％，第三季收緊到隻上漲0.8％，中檔私宅的價格漲幅則維持在1.1％的增長水平。 　　高力國際研究與谘詢部主管謝岫君指出，以高檔私宅來說，這也是自09年第三季當市場首次回彈以來，迄今最小的高檔價格漲幅。 　　李曉和也指出，在2011年的前九個月，私宅價格指數已上漲了約5.6％，比去年同期上漲的14.4％低了不少。 　　他認為，最近股市大滑坡，以及全球經濟放緩的消息打壓了市場情緒，他因此相信，第四季對新房子的需求應該會放慢，而任何價格上漲也會很小。 　　謝岫君則認為，一般來說，本地的經濟情況還能“支撐”買家對私宅的買氣。然而，潛在買家估計會對價格更謹慎；另一方麵，發展商預計也不會急著降價，因為健康的需求還為價格穩定度提供一定的支撐力。　　 　　但萊坊谘詢與研究部主管方寶順認為，若我國突然陷入嚴重的經濟衰退，私宅價格或許會下調，但估計跌幅也會相當小，每年不會超過5％。 　　昨天出爐的預估數據，是根據第三季首10個星期的私宅買賣禁令計算出來的，完整的官方數據將在本月底公布。 《聯合早報》 Time to relook property cooling measures, say analysts October 4, 2011 ⋅ Property watchers said a shortage of resale flats amidst strong demand is accelerating price growth. While some said more time is needed for new flats to be built, others think it is time to review the property cooling measures. Resale flat prices, which are already at an all-time high, rose 3.8 per cent in the third quarter this year – higher than the 3.1 per cent recorded in the second quarter. Since property cooling measures were introduced last year to take the heat off the exuberant market, the number of transactions have dropped significantly. Property firms said the number of deals closed have dipped by 30 per cent compared to a year ago. Market watchers said there has been a slow down in the supply of flats, as home owners are put off by the rule that requires them to sell off their flat first before they are granted a higher bank loan of 80 per cent. Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer at ERA Realty, said: “Most sellers prefer to buy first, then sell. For people who do not qualify for HDB loan and they have to take a bank loan, they only would be able to get a maximum 60 per cent loan. And therefore there is a requirement for 40 per cent equity.” HDB resale flats have also been generating good rental yield. Industry players said they have seen a spike in rental transactions and it is unlikely that home owners will give up their HDB flats, adding to the supply crunch. Tan Kok Keong, Head of Research and Consultancy at OrangeTee, said: “Some segments of the public housing can be rented out. Every unit that’s kept from the market means that one new household does not have the choice to buy that public housing.” Mr Tan also pointed out that the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) before flats can be rented out used to be one to three years. For home owners who bought a flat in 2008 or 2009, before the MOP was raised to five years, they would have been able to rent out their flats and use the yield to pay for a second mortgage on a private home. The government has increased the supply of new flats to draw first-time home owners away from the resale market. But there is a limit to how much demand can be diverted – first-timers account for a quarter of resale transactions. And not all are willing to wait the two and a half years for a new flat to be built. With such market conditions, sellers are commanding higher cash premiums – adding to the overall transaction price. Industry players said the median cash-over-valuation (COV) is about S$35,000 to S$37,000, similar to the previous quarter. To ease the supply crunch, there was a suggestion to relax the criteria for a bank loan for those just looking to upgrade. Mr Lim said: “I think when the 60 per cent rule was implemented, the objective was to instil prudence in the buyers. But if you look at the practical point of view, if I’m selling my flat to buy another flat, eventually I will still end up with one property and one mortgage.” If the shortage situation is not resolved, market watchers expect resale flat prices to inch up by another three to four per cent in the last quarter of this year. This would bring the overall price increase to more than 10 per cent in just one year – which makes owning a flat an increasing financial burden. Source : Channel NewsAsia – 4 Oct 2011