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交易的六種境界

(2011-12-03 08:08:23) 下一個


一、神秘階段

新手開始交易時,很少或根本不了解市場,不知道各類市場之間,以及市場與經濟之間的相互關係。價格圖就像是一個毫無意義的彩色線條波浪線,看起來更像是一個現代藝術博物館的繪畫。

通過觀察了解,新手慢慢開始有一點感覺。

二、被火鍋燙階段

看到一個不斷重複的價格形態之後,開始試著交易,不幸被套。不斷試,不斷被套。最終放棄這個簡單的交易策略。

三、懷疑階段

開始懷疑書上所說的、懷疑交易課程,懷疑交易商、莊家、“市場操縱者”、等等。

四、價格圖充滿了彎彎曲曲的指標

開始尋找“秘密武器”、“聖杯”。發瘋似的試驗各種方法和指標。買各種書籍,參加各種課程,訂閱各種通訊和谘詢服務,訪問各種網站和各種各樣的聊天室。買高級交易軟件。

不幸的是,圖表搞的很複雜,很難得出一致的交易信號

五、階段

開始意識到什麽交易方式,技術,技巧在市場中流行。不再把全部注意力放在外在因素上,而是開始問自己一些問題:
我目標是什麽?我要完成什麽?

什麽樣的交易適合我?長線,中線,還是短線交易?日內交易?

趨勢交易?快速倒賣交易(
scalping)?最喜歡哪種?
選擇交易品種:期貨,股票,
ETF,債券,期權哪個品種提供了所需的波動範圍,同時又在風險承受能力之內?

使用“科學方法”製定交易計劃,包括風險管理和寸頭管理。

意識到好奇心,超然的興趣,恒心和毅力,以及點點滴滴的知識積累,在製定交易計劃和交易策略中的重要性。交易計劃具有獨特性,完全是自己的。對此充滿信心,因為已經徹底地測試過,並且從自己的經驗中知道,這個交易計劃是可以持續盈利的。

對交易的方方麵麵全部負責,包括虧損。知道虧損是交易的必然的一部分。明白市場交易的風險完全控製在自己手裏。

不再報怨莊家、交易商、或者其他騙錢的“陰謀家”。不再企圖報複市場。不再煩惱。不再發火。不再屈從於希望、恐懼、貪婪。衝動,情緒化的交易不見了。相反,隻是平靜地交易。

六、融會貫通階段

到了這個階段,交易進入了一種象禪一樣狀態。計劃、分析、研究成為支配時間和精力的重點。每當交易時間開始,我已經準備好了。很平靜,輕鬆,專注,高效率。

交易變得毫不費力。我完完全全熟悉自己的交易計劃。在任何情況下我都知道我該做什麽,包括在意想不到的情況下立即退出交易。我明白不可避免的虧損是交易的自然的一部分。沒有人能夠傷到我,因為我已經用我的交易規則和交易紀律把自己保護起來了。

我對市場的潮起潮落有了知覺。我時刻準備著I am available。我不需要知道市場下一步會做什麽,因為我知道不管市場在做什麽,我將如何反應。我對自己如何反應很有信心。

我明白無為而治Active Inaction而且照此執行。我知道我要的是什麽,在尋找什麽。我耐心地等待,等待絕佳的機會。當機會來臨時,我會毫不猶豫地果斷出擊。然後我又開始耐心地等待下一個機會。

我不試圖說服自己是正確的。我通過仔細觀察價格運動來下結論。當價格行為改變時,我也改變我的戰術。價格運動是絕對真理。我不試圖耍小聰明或者過度猜測市場。

在某種意義上講,我把自己一分為二,觀察者和執行者。外麵的觀察者,作為教練,問我問題,同時我以不自圓其說的方式,向觀察者自己解釋我在等待什麽,在做什麽,並且時刻提醒自己這樣或那樣會發生的事情,讓自己專注在重點上,對分心的事泰然處之。

對贏利交易,我不過度興奮,麵對虧損交易,我不鬱悶。我知道價錢該怎麽樣就怎麽樣,市場該怎麽樣就怎麽樣。我的交易業績與我的自我價值無關。

在這個階段,直覺開始出現。也許不是很頻繁,但我開始試驗用我的直覺,慢慢學會信任並且利用我的直覺。

每天我都會複審這一天的交易。根據結果,如果需要,我會對交易策略做出必要的調整,然後開始為下一天的交易做準備。

做完這一切後,我對自己這一天的工作感到滿意。



讀到arabbitter的博文,很受啟發,摘錄幾點如下:
原文在此:http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201112&postID=3557

初級階段收益風險結構上有兩種基本特征:1:風險變小。對風險很敏感,控製力越來越強。2:賺錢也少。拿不起放不下,早早止損,快快止贏。虧損固然截短了,利潤也不會奔跑。因而,職業交易的初級階段是告別了暴利和大虧。

入門階段。大勢的意識和感覺,慢慢學會做波段和長線。做波段和長線難在安全邊際的界定。有了安全邊際,時間會把安全邊際和倉位逐漸轉換為可觀的利潤。短線交易性機會拿交易性的利潤,時間的威力就很難發揮出來。能截短虧損,讓利潤奔跑。

準成功階段。一般也就是每天大致看看盤,每周有一兩次分析分析數據和市場,檢查檢查安全邊際和倉位合理性。

最大的敵人不是貪婪,不是恐懼,而是僥幸。僥幸希望偶然性小概率事件發生或不發生,爆倉就是這樣發生的。

交易者的靈感來自於凝神聚力,精神的高度集中,也就是進入入定狀態。仿佛自己與時間都不存在了,完全進入到一個境界裏,並在那個境界中效率很高地獲得靈感。越是水平高的人,越是比一般人更多地在入定狀態。看盤時,使自己和市場融為一體,能把握住微妙細節。好的交易狀態,時刻需要健康的身體、心理和心態的配合。

交易是博弈的藝術,滄桑繁華要曆經幾度循環才能返璞歸真,終致奧妙於心。經受了大喜大悲,頓悟之後豁然開朗。原來,交易本就簡單,輸贏皆由心生。極度緊張痛苦到極度放鬆超脫,來回往複,最終凝結成涅磐似的安詳和平和,那是內心世界無法言傳的精神滿足!

 


Stage Five: The Inwardly-Bound Stage

The trader who is able to pry himself out of Stage Four uses his experiences there productively. The trader learns, as stated earlier, what styles, techniques, and tactics are popular. But instead of focusing entirely on what’s “out there”, he begins to ask himself some questions:

What exactly does he want? What is he trying to accomplish?

What sort of trading makes the most sense to him? Long or intermediate-term trading? Short-term trading? Day-trading? Trend-trading? Scalping? Which is most comfortable?

What instrument — futures, stocks, ETFs, bonds, options — provides the range and volatility he requires but is not outside his risk tolerance? Did he learn anything at all about indicators in Stage Four that he might be able to use?

And so he “auditions” all of this in order to determine what suits him, taking all that he has learned so far and experimenting with it.

He begins to incorporate the “scientific method” into his efforts in order to develop a trading plan, including risk management and trade management. He learns the value of curiosity, of detached interest, of persistence and perseverance, of taking bits and pieces from here and there in order to fashion a trading plan and strategy that are uniquely his, one in which he has complete confidence because he has tested it thoroughly and knows from his own experience that it is consistently profitable.

He accepts fully the responsibility for his trades, including the losses, which is to say that he understands that losses are inevitable and unavoidable. Rather than be thrown by them, he accepts them for what they are, a part of the natural course of business. He examines them, of course, in order to determine whether or not some error was made, particularly one that can be corrected, though true trading errors are rare. But, if not, he simply shrugs off the loss and goes on about his business. He understands, after all, that he is in control of his risk in the market.

He doesn’t rant about his broker or the specialist or the market maker or that vast conspiracy of everyone who’s trying to cheat him out of his money. He doesn’t attempt revenge against the market. He doesn’t fret. He doesn’t fume. He doesn’t succumb to hope, fear, greed. Impulsive, emotional trades are gone. Instead, he just trades.

Stage Six: Mastery

At this level, the trader achieves an almost Zen-like trading state. Planning, analysis, research are the focus of his time and his effort. When the trading day opens, he’s ready for it. He’s calm, he’s relaxed, he’s centered.

Trading becomes effortless. He is thoroughly familiar with his plan. He knows exactly what he will do in any given situation, even if the doing means exiting immediately upon a completely unexpected development. He understands the inevitability of loss and accepts it as a natural part of the business of trading. No one can hurt him because he’s protected by his rules and his discipline.

He is sensitive to and in tune with the ebb and flow of market behavior and the natural actions and reactions to it that his research has taught him will optimize his edge*. He is “available”. He doesn’t have to know what the market will do next because he knows how he will react to anything the market does and is confident in his ability to react correctly.

He understands and practices “active inaction”, knowing exactly what it is he wants, exactly what it is he’s looking for, and waiting, patiently, for exactly the right opportunity. If and when that opportunity presents itself, he acts decisively and without hesitation, then waits, patiently, again, for the next opportunity.

He does not convince himself that he is right. He watches price movement and draws his conclusions. When market behavior changes, so do his tactics. He acknowledges that market movement is the ultimate truth. He doesn’t try to outsmart or outguess it.

He is, in a sense, outside himself, acting as his own coach, asking himself questions and explaining to himself without rationalization what he’s waiting for, what he’s doing, reminding himself of this or that, keeping himself centered and focused, taking distractions in stride. He doesn’t get overexcited about winning trades; he doesn’t get depressed about losing trades. He accepts that price does what it does and the market is what it is. His performance has nothing to do with his self-worth.

It is during this stage that the “intuitive” sense begins to manifest itself. As infrequent as it may be, he learns to experiment with it and to build trust in it.

And at the end of the day, he reviews his work, makes whatever adjustments are necessary, if any, and begins his preparation for the following day, satisfied with himself for having traded well.


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