守著陽光守著你
King of Day-Trading
正文
坦白地說，這次抄底沒有踩好點，10:00 Consumer Confidence 數據差得出乎預料。嗬嗬，低老大言之有理。
我原先的估計是inline or a bit better than expected，so the bad data at 10am caught me in surprise。From trading point of view，nevertheless，the timing of this buydip was no good as a few minutes would be well worth waiting。However，what\'s done is done，I\'ll leave it as it is。Although the indices right now look like certainly to be going lower given the relentless selling pressure being observed since June 21st，I still remain bullish on the mid-term performance of the US equity markets and hold up the goal that SP500 will reach out 1250 by Oct. 2010。
Of evidences to support my market view, it\'s mainly political rather than economic or technical: an under-table deal between Obama and Wall Street，the mid-term election, plus an engineered inflation which is looming large on the horizon。。。Of course，the 2Q ER must offer some hope to fence off rising suspicions。。。
If you picture the chart in a longer time frame，the fluctuation we had today would appear like a flat baseline when you look back at the heights in a few months。I\'ll try my best not to trade on news or data for this last train to heaven。Honestly speaking，I\'m not worried。
So，when the majority is screaming a head & shoulder and many are on a run to take covers for the incoming water falls，I\'m buying and thinking of a getaway trip to somewhere remote。。。
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來源: 多吉 於 10-06-29 06:54:23
SP1051.5，買單觸發。這早盤是個熊套。。。
來源: 低手中的低手 於 10-06-29 07:03:55
為何非要在這裏？俺覺得埋單是最糟糕的交易手法，尤其是下跌通道時。如果是上升通道，buy dips 還是make sense 的。。。
我原先的估計是inline or a bit better than expected，so the bad data at 10am caught me in surprise。From trading point of view，nevertheless，the timing of this buydip was no good as a few minutes would be well worth waiting。However，what\'s done is done，I\'ll leave it as it is。Although the indices right now look like certainly to be going lower given the relentless selling pressure being observed since June 21st，I still remain bullish on the mid-term performance of the US equity markets and hold up the goal that SP500 will reach out 1250 by Oct. 2010。
Of evidences to support my market view, it\'s mainly political rather than economic or technical: an under-table deal between Obama and Wall Street，the mid-term election, plus an engineered inflation which is looming large on the horizon。。。Of course，the 2Q ER must offer some hope to fence off rising suspicions。。。
If you picture the chart in a longer time frame，the fluctuation we had today would appear like a flat baseline when you look back at the heights in a few months。I\'ll try my best not to trade on news or data for this last train to heaven。Honestly speaking，I\'m not worried。
So，when the majority is screaming a head & shoulder and many are on a run to take covers for the incoming water falls，I\'m buying and thinking of a getaway trip to somewhere remote。。。
*************************************************************
來源: 多吉 於 10-06-29 06:54:23
SP1051.5，買單觸發。這早盤是個熊套。。。
來源: 低手中的低手 於 10-06-29 07:03:55
為何非要在這裏？俺覺得埋單是最糟糕的交易手法，尤其是下跌通道時。如果是上升通道，buy dips 還是make sense 的。。。
如果我們看S&P這20年的圖，我們看到了什麽？一個雙頂，這一年多的回升很像是在去做第三個頂，更bullish的可能是這次突破雙頂的範圍。也就是說，在這種bullish的可能性下，目標價位是1400+。
如果我們認為這種可能有道理，那再用對稱原理看一下圖，攀升第一個頂的時候的大回調在哪裏？就是98年的回調。有趣的是，98年也是世界杯年，同時98年的危機也是國際債務危機，但最後是美國得益。