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多吉 (熱門博主)
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9/23-24,連漲兩天的那種。。。

(2008-09-22 18:41:50) 下一個

理由:


1• SPX strong support at current level around 1200

2• DOW strong support at current level around 11000

3• RUT has filled gap at 721, close to support at 717

4• NAZ gave back 55% of last week 2-day's 250pts gain, further decline is limited

5• VIX strong resistance at current level around 34, it's expected to touch down 29

6• KRE (Regional Banks ETF) has retreated -38% in two sessions, it hit a strong support at 37.5 near the close. A rebounce is imminent in the sector and they will lift all of boats in banking.

7• From the money flow point of view, the market retreated orderly today without a sign of panic. It could set a tone nicely for a next day reversal.

8• Crude had a string of 4 up days in the face of oversold and ended up with a historical one day hike by a huge short squeeze on the expiration day of future contracts. While the situation turned to overbought, crude oil price hits a resistance zone coincidentally and oil is due for a 10% correction by the end of the week. If common sense applies, the broad market goes the opposite way of oil.
(when the -10% correction occurs and comes to the end, pay attention to 10 micro oil/mining issues for gold digging: ROYL PDO MXC SSN FPP TGC CRED CLR FRG MFN )

9• Bearish sentimental > 67%, the pessimism prevails under current market situation.

10• P/C Ratio (p/c data may not function well as before due to the enforcement of short ban)
Total Put/Call Ratio 0.97
Index Put/Call Ratio 1.34
Equity Put/Call Ratio 0.72

就在九月,那個大牛的“九比一上漲日”指日可待。。。


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