7,8月的石油

I feel very bearish on the oil price for the next two months. First, look at USO for recent two years.






Please look at the price/volume relation. Note that there is always a dip at mid and year end.
Also for DUG,



It feels like DUG hit the bottom. I think there might be 4-5 weeks decline in oil. I am starting to take some position of DUG today to exploit this opportunity. Also, Fed is going to raise interests rate sooner or later. So the pressure on oil price is on.

If this article is posted on investment forum in WXC, it will be hit to death under current bullish viewpoint on oil in long term. So I will keep it to myself. Investment idea is precious. If everyone knows something as obvious, then the oppotunity is already lost. Finding the hidden treasure is really hard. That's why only few people become rich. I mean really rich, not miserable middle class. If you happen to see this article, keep it to yourself, you might earn some $$. You might also lose $$, it depends on your trading skills. As for myself, this is a record. I try my best to keep my winning record.

後記
DUG reaches 32 yesterday(7/8). I was out. About 18% return in two weeks. Not so bad.