正文
就是說政府不招聘,實際招聘就是負數.
In the month of December, job growth was abysmal with only 18k jobs added to US payrolls. Without the help of the government, the private sector actually lost 13k jobs. The weakness in the labor market is one of the main reasons why the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 150bp since the last NFP release. We believe that the Federal Reserve will begin to slow their pace of rate cuts, but if job growth fails to live up to the market’s expectation once again, the Fed could realistically deliver back to back half point cuts. In fact, according to Fed fund futures, the market is already pricing in a 70 percent chance that interest rates will be taken down to 2.5 percent at the March 18 monetary policy meeting. However we have all seen rate cut expectations shift dramatically in the weeks leading up to the most recent FOMC decision.
If job growth was in excess of 100k during the month of January, traders could flip their bets and favor a return to gradualism. Simply speaking, a strong number would be positive for the dollar because it would mean that we only need 25bp more in March while a weak number will be negative because it would call for another half point cut.
In the month of December, job growth was abysmal with only 18k jobs added to US payrolls. Without the help of the government, the private sector actually lost 13k jobs. The weakness in the labor market is one of the main reasons why the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 150bp since the last NFP release. We believe that the Federal Reserve will begin to slow their pace of rate cuts, but if job growth fails to live up to the market’s expectation once again, the Fed could realistically deliver back to back half point cuts. In fact, according to Fed fund futures, the market is already pricing in a 70 percent chance that interest rates will be taken down to 2.5 percent at the March 18 monetary policy meeting. However we have all seen rate cut expectations shift dramatically in the weeks leading up to the most recent FOMC decision.
If job growth was in excess of 100k during the month of January, traders could flip their bets and favor a return to gradualism. Simply speaking, a strong number would be positive for the dollar because it would mean that we only need 25bp more in March while a weak number will be negative because it would call for another half point cut.
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