正文

why market crash is a blessing,a true blessing,not even in disgu

(2008-06-18 09:07:13) 下一個
假設你有200萬的資產,100萬現金,100萬股票/ETF/mutual funds, etc. 如果你明天想退休的話,你是希望股市:

A.翻一倍, or
B.跌一半?

My answer is B. Warren chose B too.

Why? An analogy serves as a good explaination:

假設這個世界上沒有金融市場,沒有金融證券,人們唯一的投資是雞,人們唯一的sustenance and pleasure是eat eggs. 你有10000元和100隻雞,每隻雞的市價是100塊. 你是希望每隻雞: A.漲到200塊,還是B.跌倒50塊?

A. your asset is worth 30000, 或者是150隻雞, or 150 eggs a day。
B. 你的asset是15000,或者300隻雞, or 300 eggs a day.

去年九,十,十一月份賣掉的基金大都在銀行存了保本保息半年,一年期的理財,現在已經陸續到期了. 從3000點到3600到2800一路買下來. the more it crashes, the more blessed i feel.

treat your stocks like chicken, not like numerical, fiat money.

But US stock market is another story. It is a chicken that'll never lay any eggs any more.
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