We Are At A Critical Pivotal Point (S&P 500 Analysis)

In last few days, many people asked the same question: why the market ignored all the bad news?  I think this has to do with human psychological cycle (or we call it sentiment) which takes about 35-40 days (or 5-6 weeks) to complete one cycle.  Take a look at the following S&P 500 chart from Feb 27 high 1388.34 to recent Apr 7 high 1386.74, the time span is about 6 weeks:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p86463308335

The triangle is formed that should be explosive once the market break out the box.  The market will soon announce the next big move (either go up or down).

Interestingly, using Fibonacci theory, we get high point 1388.34 (on Feb 25) and low point 1256.98 (on Mar 17) can calculate 3 critical support levels: 1337.17 (38.2% retracement), 1321.86 (50% retracement), 1306.55 (61.8% retracement).  If the market decides to go down these 3 key support levels are what we should be looking for.

What if the market decides to go up?  Using Fibanacci calculation, the first resistance level should be 1390.28 and the next resistance level should be 1421.73.

Now, what is my opnion that the market will go up or down?  From looking at the chart, it is likely that it will go down unless the market go down for next few days to retreat to at least to 1337 level and firmly stay there, otherwise, the market is ready to dive in the next big wave.  Also look at three tops 1396.02 (Mar 2), 1388.34 (Mar 27) and 1386.74 (Apr 7), you see a trend of lower high.  Take another look at two bottoms 1270.05 (Jan 23) and 1256.98 (Mar 17), you see a trend of lower low, that further supports that it's likely the market will go down not up.  I think the chance the market go down is higher than the chance the market will go up.  Just my humble opinion.