正文
來源: 一諾千金 於 08-08-22 21:31:25
I will continues to use rally to lighten up on my holdings. It's the very nature of bear markets to constantly entice investors to jump back in too soon. The lesson to be learned is to remain skeptical of every rally attempt until the evidence is compelling that the supply of stock being offered for sale is drying up, and that renewed investor demand is both broad and strong.
This week selling pressure rose to its highest level of the bear market so far, and buying interest has been so sluggish that upside volume and advance-decline line levels are flat even on days like today where a flashy rally is staged.
The real problem with bear market rallies is that they usually end abruptly, wiping out a month of advances with a few days of selling. "Investors seem to rarely exit failed rallies as quickly as they got in, resulting in a series of whipsaws that can often compound portfolio losses,". So I must either decide to be very nimble during counter-trend rallies, or just resist the temptation.
As I see that bear markets almost always reach their greatest intensity during their final months, when investor psychology has turned heavily negative -- when the formerly bullish experts have turned silent, when the news is one-sidedly negative, and panic has begun to set in. With the rapid approach of the September-November period, which has contained some of the intense market declines in history, YOU MIGHT PROBABLY CONTINUE TO VIEW PERIODS OF RALLY AS SELLING OPPORTUNITES FOR ANYTHING RISKY IN YOUR PORTFOLIOS.
I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE STRONGLY THAT I WILL KNOW THE BOTTOM WHEN I SEE IT.THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE DECLINE, OR SERIES OF DECLINES, that tape off into a decline of selling pressure as the desire to dump stocks is exhausted – AND THEN I WILL SEE ONE DAY IN WHICH THE MARKET RISES BY A HUGE AMOUNT IN A SINGLE DAY ON FANTASTIC VOLUME AND BREADTH.I WILL LIKELY MISS THAT ONE DAY, BUT IF HISTORY AND COMMON SENSE ARE ANY GUIDE, I WILL CATCH THE REST OF BULL MARKET THAT FOLLOWS.
In summary, it was great to see the market up smartly today since a down Friday always puts a pall on the weekend. Even my forecast that the SP 500 has a shot at getting to 1,330 before turning down and heading back toward the July lows? Paradoxically, that could still be on track. But it did not look or feel to me as if anything had changed in a material way.
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just ask ourselves one simple question: are you scared now???
I will continues to use rally to lighten up on my holdings. It's the very nature of bear markets to constantly entice investors to jump back in too soon. The lesson to be learned is to remain skeptical of every rally attempt until the evidence is compelling that the supply of stock being offered for sale is drying up, and that renewed investor demand is both broad and strong.
This week selling pressure rose to its highest level of the bear market so far, and buying interest has been so sluggish that upside volume and advance-decline line levels are flat even on days like today where a flashy rally is staged.
The real problem with bear market rallies is that they usually end abruptly, wiping out a month of advances with a few days of selling. "Investors seem to rarely exit failed rallies as quickly as they got in, resulting in a series of whipsaws that can often compound portfolio losses,". So I must either decide to be very nimble during counter-trend rallies, or just resist the temptation.
As I see that bear markets almost always reach their greatest intensity during their final months, when investor psychology has turned heavily negative -- when the formerly bullish experts have turned silent, when the news is one-sidedly negative, and panic has begun to set in. With the rapid approach of the September-November period, which has contained some of the intense market declines in history, YOU MIGHT PROBABLY CONTINUE TO VIEW PERIODS OF RALLY AS SELLING OPPORTUNITES FOR ANYTHING RISKY IN YOUR PORTFOLIOS.
I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE STRONGLY THAT I WILL KNOW THE BOTTOM WHEN I SEE IT.THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE DECLINE, OR SERIES OF DECLINES, that tape off into a decline of selling pressure as the desire to dump stocks is exhausted – AND THEN I WILL SEE ONE DAY IN WHICH THE MARKET RISES BY A HUGE AMOUNT IN A SINGLE DAY ON FANTASTIC VOLUME AND BREADTH.I WILL LIKELY MISS THAT ONE DAY, BUT IF HISTORY AND COMMON SENSE ARE ANY GUIDE, I WILL CATCH THE REST OF BULL MARKET THAT FOLLOWS.
In summary, it was great to see the market up smartly today since a down Friday always puts a pall on the weekend. Even my forecast that the SP 500 has a shot at getting to 1,330 before turning down and heading back toward the July lows? Paradoxically, that could still be on track. But it did not look or feel to me as if anything had changed in a material way.
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just ask ourselves one simple question: are you scared now???
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