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首先看2009四季度預期:
2009四季度GDP預期範圍從（-1.3, -0.5）調整到（-2.0, -1.3）
2009四季度Unemployment預期範圍從（8.5%, 8.8%）調整到（9.2%, 9.6%）
2009四季度Headline PCE inflation預期從 (0.3%, 1.0%)調整到（0.6%, 0.9%）
The core inflation projection for 2009預期從(0.9%, 1.1%)調整到（1.0%, 1.5%）
FOMC 的注解：
1. FOMC注意到第二季度經濟下滑的勢頭有所放緩.
注：第一季度GDP糟糕有很多部分是由於庫存下降，都降到零了還能咋降？實質上第一季度已經開始放緩，但放緩並不意味著一定要開始增長。
2. FOMC期待下半年生產和銷售開始恢複，原因是financial係統好轉。
注：這基本是廢話，financial係統好轉不能決定生產和銷售是不是恢複
3. FOMC注意到最近幾個月居民財務狀況有所改善，這可能意味著居民消費應該穩定下來，房價因此大概也許可能接近底部。
注： 5似乎不支持對居民消費和房價穩定的預期。
4. FOMC觀察到第一季度企業大幅削減庫存，但是今年晚些時候銷售狀況開始穩定會促使企業增加庫存。
注：不必然，取決於2，生產和銷售是不是真的開始恢複。
5. FOMC注意到勞務市場繼續惡化，信用依舊緊縮，房價還在跌，Fed估計居民的消費和投資因此會繼續削減。
注： 這個是壞消息。
6. FOMC預計企業非常低的生產能力利用率，緩慢的銷售增長，增加的借貸成本會壓製企業的固定投資規模。
注：這個也是壞消息。
原話：
"However, participants also saw recent indications that the economic downturn was slowing in the second quarter, and they continued to expect that sales and production would begin to recover-albeit gradually-during the second half of the year, reflecting the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus and of measures to support credit markets and stabilize the financial system along with market forces. In particular, participants noted some improvement in financial conditions in recent months, signs that consumer spending was leveling out, and tentative indications that activity in the housing sector might be nearing its bottom. In addition, they observed that the large reduction in stocks of unsold goods that resulted from firms' aggressive inventory cutting during the first quarter would make firms more likely to increase production as their sales stabilize and then begin to turn up later this year. Participants expected, however, that recoveries in consumer spending and residential investment initially would be damped by further deterioration in labor markets, still-tight credit conditions, and a continuing, if less pronounced, decline in house prices. Moreover, they anticipated that very low capacity utilization, sluggish growth in sales, and the high cost and limited availability of financing would contribute to further weakness in business fixed investment this year."
Fed之前的預期是2010年上半年的某個時候經濟開始複蘇，為此Fed已經做好了準備工作。但此次FOMC 卻認為複蘇可能會很慢，原因是依舊緊的信用條件，高失業率和房價依舊在下降。
"Participants generally expected that strains in credit markets and in the banking system would ebb slowly, and hence that the pace of recovery would continue to be damped in 2010. But they anticipated that the upturn would strengthen in 2011 to a pace exceeding the growth rate of potential GDP as financial conditions continue to improve, and that it would remain above that rate long enough to eliminate slack in resource utilization over time."
俺覺著這個更符合現實。
總的感覺是，大鱷們對經濟開始真正複蘇的期待從2010年初後推到2011，盡管他們依舊存有一線指望，並仔細選擇措辭以免刺激大眾對經濟明年複蘇的信心。
關於美股大盤，時間上來講，本波中期行情從五月初已經開始進入頂部震蕩周期。spx震蕩空間目前875 - 950。5月4日spx的收盤，很有可能是周收盤價的頂部，所以無論何時spx升上920+，中短期內賣空比買多相對更安全。
震蕩可能持續幾周，結束後大盤下行的概率很大。
李察天 5/21
2009四季度GDP預期範圍從（-1.3, -0.5）調整到（-2.0, -1.3）
2009四季度Unemployment預期範圍從（8.5%, 8.8%）調整到（9.2%, 9.6%）
2009四季度Headline PCE inflation預期從 (0.3%, 1.0%)調整到（0.6%, 0.9%）
The core inflation projection for 2009預期從(0.9%, 1.1%)調整到（1.0%, 1.5%）
FOMC 的注解：
1. FOMC注意到第二季度經濟下滑的勢頭有所放緩.
注：第一季度GDP糟糕有很多部分是由於庫存下降，都降到零了還能咋降？實質上第一季度已經開始放緩，但放緩並不意味著一定要開始增長。
2. FOMC期待下半年生產和銷售開始恢複，原因是financial係統好轉。
注：這基本是廢話，financial係統好轉不能決定生產和銷售是不是恢複
3. FOMC注意到最近幾個月居民財務狀況有所改善，這可能意味著居民消費應該穩定下來，房價因此大概也許可能接近底部。
注： 5似乎不支持對居民消費和房價穩定的預期。
4. FOMC觀察到第一季度企業大幅削減庫存，但是今年晚些時候銷售狀況開始穩定會促使企業增加庫存。
注：不必然，取決於2，生產和銷售是不是真的開始恢複。
5. FOMC注意到勞務市場繼續惡化，信用依舊緊縮，房價還在跌，Fed估計居民的消費和投資因此會繼續削減。
注： 這個是壞消息。
6. FOMC預計企業非常低的生產能力利用率，緩慢的銷售增長，增加的借貸成本會壓製企業的固定投資規模。
注：這個也是壞消息。
原話：
"However, participants also saw recent indications that the economic downturn was slowing in the second quarter, and they continued to expect that sales and production would begin to recover-albeit gradually-during the second half of the year, reflecting the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus and of measures to support credit markets and stabilize the financial system along with market forces. In particular, participants noted some improvement in financial conditions in recent months, signs that consumer spending was leveling out, and tentative indications that activity in the housing sector might be nearing its bottom. In addition, they observed that the large reduction in stocks of unsold goods that resulted from firms' aggressive inventory cutting during the first quarter would make firms more likely to increase production as their sales stabilize and then begin to turn up later this year. Participants expected, however, that recoveries in consumer spending and residential investment initially would be damped by further deterioration in labor markets, still-tight credit conditions, and a continuing, if less pronounced, decline in house prices. Moreover, they anticipated that very low capacity utilization, sluggish growth in sales, and the high cost and limited availability of financing would contribute to further weakness in business fixed investment this year."
Fed之前的預期是2010年上半年的某個時候經濟開始複蘇，為此Fed已經做好了準備工作。但此次FOMC 卻認為複蘇可能會很慢，原因是依舊緊的信用條件，高失業率和房價依舊在下降。
"Participants generally expected that strains in credit markets and in the banking system would ebb slowly, and hence that the pace of recovery would continue to be damped in 2010. But they anticipated that the upturn would strengthen in 2011 to a pace exceeding the growth rate of potential GDP as financial conditions continue to improve, and that it would remain above that rate long enough to eliminate slack in resource utilization over time."
俺覺著這個更符合現實。
總的感覺是，大鱷們對經濟開始真正複蘇的期待從2010年初後推到2011，盡管他們依舊存有一線指望，並仔細選擇措辭以免刺激大眾對經濟明年複蘇的信心。
關於美股大盤，時間上來講，本波中期行情從五月初已經開始進入頂部震蕩周期。spx震蕩空間目前875 - 950。5月4日spx的收盤，很有可能是周收盤價的頂部，所以無論何時spx升上920+，中短期內賣空比買多相對更安全。
震蕩可能持續幾周，結束後大盤下行的概率很大。
李察天 5/21
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