大盤中期走向 (9/4/08)

今天的暴跌，已經宣布了從 7/15/08 開始的 counter-trend rally 已經結束。
大盤又開始了下一波的下跌。 這波下跌，S&P 500 將會再創新低。

S&P 在8/11/08 的高點 1313 和 最近的高點 8/28/08 的 1300.68 形成了 double top 的形態。雖然最理想的情況是再碰一下 1320 把窗口填了，但最終還是市場說了算。市場情緒指數也是 90% 到位了，應該有足夠的能量發動下一次攻擊。
在 8/28/08 的分析中說過，這次攻擊大約在兩周之內開始，今天得以證實。

對中期走向和理由，可以看 8/28/08 的分析。 今天的市場反應實際上證實了大盤的中期走向。

link:
盤後分析及中期展望 (8/28/08)

明天如果開高，則是逃命的機會。不要再抄底.

Take care.

[waveplayer]

回複alvaning的評論:wait for a good entery point. You actually can hold SKF for sometime when you have good entry level. and Trade covered call, to lower your cost constantly. QQQQ was very oversold. So wait for bounce to upper resistance. Some hedge funds has been forced to liquidated commodity poisition which cause a massive sell off in commodity stocks. But it may close to the end. The dollar has marvelous run in past month, but it is due for a pull back.

[waveplayer]

回複mojoe的評論:
It is really difficult for me to recommend any book if I don't know what is you level. But Gann's "40 years in wall street." is good for higher level trader to read. "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (original version) " is also good to improve chart reading and analysis.

[waveplayer]

回複windlight的評論:還沒有太大的變化。美國的錢還在美國。不過沒有進股市，而是債市，or sideline. 對股市信心不足。國際的錢流向變化不大。

[alvaning]

老大，問個問題，現在明顯是金融地產航空掩護半導體等板塊出貨，但是最近幾次大跌都是由金融壞消息引起，如果LEH/WM出一個壞消息，馬上就會暴跌，那麽這種情況下你是選擇放空QQQQ還是XLF？ 先謝謝了。

[mojoe]

You have a great perception of the market. Thank you for sharing! You probably have a great deal of experience and knowledge about the market! I'd love to learn more. Do you have recommended books? I am an intermediate trader. Thank you for your anticipated response!!

[windlight]

waveplayer老大，能不能說說，從中長期看，國際上的錢在往哪兒流呢？
謝謝！