蒼海泛舟
方顯英雄本色-- 股市投資探討
Just saw the post on top of DQ (Oil, Gold, Dollar and hedge fund)
It was a good post regarding collecting data and opinions on these big topics. But I have to say: Some conclusions in this post are short sight and misleading. ( Those opinions are too close to the media common explanation, and are old. )
Why:
Let's look the facts instead of opinions:
OIL:
1. Oil supply and demand is still imbalanced from the long term view.
China demand for oil has been increased 5.7% this year and increase constantly year over year. It represents 80% of new oil demand in the world. China already became the 2nd largest oil import country in the world. This trend will remain in years to come as long as China GDP continuously growth. India is quickly catching up.
2. 48 out of 60 countries or regions which output oil declined in production. GBT north sea oil output declined 50% from 15 years ago. The north sea oil field will completed dry up within 15-20 years. There is no major discovery of new oil field in past 50 years.
So the oil price spike has some fundamental reason behind. Recent big pull back is just another correction. Since oil price supper cycle start from 1999, there are three times more than 40% correction, but oil bull trend is still continued. No exception this time I think from long term point of view. Just let nature run it's course. Time will tell.
Dollar:
Although dollar looks less ugly recently, it will continue decline after this counter trend rally. The reason is the fundamental issues of weak dollar largely remain unsolved. The worst of credit crisis of US financial system is yet to come.
GOLD:
If you agree on dollar, you will agree on GOLD trend. Dollar as currency can not retain it's value, that's why GOLD will go up continuously. Because only GOLD can retain it's value. Not dollar, not Euro anymore, not Yen, and RMB is not exchangeable currency in the world. Only Gold could be the reserve currency which can retain it's value.
We will face the worst inflation in decades because of dollar devalue and lack of natural resource. Only GOLD can hedge against those risks.
For short term, we just see opposite of everything, dollar appreciated, oil drop, commodity drop dramatically, inflation risks seems contained because of basic materials price drop and demand decline as world economy slowing down. But those are only short term phenomenon. Don't fool by the surface.
Look the 70's, you will know what could happen in next short few years.
That is just CALM before the big storm. It's coming. Be aware, and be prepared.
JM2C
( Above opinion is from maro economy point of view and for long term. Please do not mix up with short term trade. That should base on TA analysis and market reaction. )
多謝老大！老大的關於SKF的買賣例子非常實用。不知您是否可以為POT再開一個類似的例子(如：100股@230$)。小女站在POT那高高的山崗上請求幫助。
先謝過老大在這裏。
In the commodity related sectors, not all are the same.
Fertilizer is still the strongest one. Becasue it's hard to be replaced.
Thanks! What is the time frame then? Thank you again!