OIL, GOLD and Dollar Trend

OIL:
Crude oil does not has serious rebound since it's price drop from peak $147+

This is the first time that oil has serious technical rebound after big sell off start from 7/11/08. The target for this rebound is around $128-130 After this, oil may move in a range from 110 to 130 for some time.

Don't expect the oil will go right back to 147-150 level anytime soon.

Before Nov. election, it has strong incentives from Rep. politicians to keep oil price low. This has been realized through OPECs mainly through Saudis by increasing 1.2 million bpd from one month ago. And President Bush, on July 16th, sent a special envoy to Geneva to speak with Tehran's nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, marking a major shift in US negotiating policy with the "Axis of Evil." That relieved the tension btw US and Iran which deflated $15 "War Premium" out of oil price.

GOLD:

   Because dollar unexpected rally due to weakness of world economies outside US, ( Euro zone, Japan, Asia). GOLD has been drop 25% from it's peak $1035 to below $800 within one month. It has been stabilized after India start to buy up GOLD after the price drop below $800. GOLD may has double bottom around middle to end of Sep. to retest last low. GOLD long term uptrend remain intact. Because the worst of financial crisis is yet to come.

Dollar:

   The recent economy weakness outside US has partially priced into market. The further strength of dollar depends on ECB's action for rate hike. Dollar still not peak yet, after consolidation, it will continue to go up. The peak of dollar may be around index 80-82.   This is counter-trend of the dollar. The long term decline trend of the dollar started from seven years ago is still intact. And I believe dollar index will go under 70 late next year after the counter rally. 

 

JM2C