對近期大勢的看法

謝謝七月晴天把我和一些股友的通訊貼出來了。本想在《於無聲處聽驚雷---透視美國股市》中一起發表，但因為沒時間寫完，就給一些股友寫了些結論。現在看看，還有些意義。作為紀錄，公布於此，以謝股友的支持。

寫於8/26/2007：
 

Give you a quick summary before you see my full article:

1. US is facing a serious financial crisis in decades which just begin to unfold. This could led a recession.

2. Fed Ben Bernake and treasury secretary Paulson are working hard to avoid severe market turmoil from happening at any cost. The Dow 800 points rally from 8/16 lows we just experienced are the result of FED and PPT team massive intervention. It did not came from natural market movement.

3. The intervention itself can not change market trend, but it can delay inevitable trend and buy some time before it happen.

4. FED fund rate cut is "have to do" FED has no choice in next meeting.

5. Short term market will calm and go up because of FED guard. Enjoy this prime time in next week which will soon disappear.

6. Dow could to up to 13700 with FED rate cut, but will not see the new highs for long time. We could see new lows in Oct, Nov. time frame.

7. Short term strategy: Buy low and sell high with short holding time. And prepare to short market when "FED rally" fade out.

8. Long term investment: Avoid Financial group, avoid cooperation high yeild bond. Raise cash level, buy some base metals ETFs and energy ETFs and GLD ETFs at any dip. Buy some government bond. Wait until this crisis unfold completely. Buy insurance (puts) to protect significant down side risks in next few months.

Gold may break 700 mark and reach as high as 800 next year.

[DDstudy]

Waveplayer master,

Every enjoy your posts about MKT on DQ. Sorry you have no time post there anymore. What is your current MKT view after 9.18 Fed cut and recent rally? Thanks!