蒼海泛舟
方顯英雄本色-- 股市投資探討
正文
今天的市場受到低於預期的生產物價指數 PPI, 和高於估計的LEH 的盈利的鼓舞，在開高小幅回調後一路走高。 但仔細看 PPI 數據並不樂觀。多數價格下降是由於能源（gas and oil, ) 汽車銷售價格下降導致的。Core rate 比預期的還高。 （0.2 vs 0.1) 最近的 oil price 達到新高，會對下月PPI 產生壓力。明天的CPI 會更反映與消費者相關的情況。 考慮到美元的貶值，FED 下調利率的空間是有限的。
LEH 的盈利雖然比估計得好，但未來的預期並不樂觀。加上Creadit freeze up 還沒解決，大量A&M deal 的籌款問題還是疑問。這些會拖累今後的盈利。Fixed income 下降 47%， 對盈收產生 -700m 負增長。
FED 0。25 cut 已經融入市場價格，0。50 cut 是不可能的事。 But there are growing number of people expect FED has 0.50 cut in this meeting. Before meeting, last two weeks, market already up a quite bit and fully priced in 0.25 cut, the future market even priced in 0.50 cut. So before FED meeting, it seem very high expectation build into market which is easy to get disappointed if FED only cut 0.25 and has some comments on inflation side.
Take a look Option crowd, which represents "smart money" movement, QQQQ, SPY all have large oversize puts order this morning while market advance. That means market maker now is bearish to the market and purchase put to protect downside risk.
So this market is set up to fall after FED annoucement. Be aware the risks and protect your position.
JM2C
LEH 的盈利雖然比估計得好，但未來的預期並不樂觀。加上Creadit freeze up 還沒解決，大量A&M deal 的籌款問題還是疑問。這些會拖累今後的盈利。Fixed income 下降 47%， 對盈收產生 -700m 負增長。
FED 0。25 cut 已經融入市場價格，0。50 cut 是不可能的事。 But there are growing number of people expect FED has 0.50 cut in this meeting. Before meeting, last two weeks, market already up a quite bit and fully priced in 0.25 cut, the future market even priced in 0.50 cut. So before FED meeting, it seem very high expectation build into market which is easy to get disappointed if FED only cut 0.25 and has some comments on inflation side.
Take a look Option crowd, which represents "smart money" movement, QQQQ, SPY all have large oversize puts order this morning while market advance. That means market maker now is bearish to the market and purchase put to protect downside risk.
So this market is set up to fall after FED annoucement. Be aware the risks and protect your position.
JM2C
haha, you are kidding!