為什麽不看好 GOOG 和 TSL

GOOG  在 Internet search/Ad  領域裏無疑是大哥大。它的地位無人挑戰，且會長期的保持下去。

但它的成功，已經開始讓它走向反麵，而忽視了它的核心事業 -搜索引擎和相關的廣告業。
最近的例子：  Check out  交易結算係統，和 Google Phone.

1) Check out  交易結算係統, 與 Google 的核心事業完全無關，反而有害。 因為從一開始就受到Google 最大的用戶 Ebay 的質疑，擔心是針對EBay 的 PayPal. 損害了合作關係。 Google 還是要堅持開發，兩年來，GOOGLE 暴露出了在非核心事業軟件開發方麵的無能。Check Out system 自開始使用以來，錯誤百出，盡管提供免費服務，（Offer one year free charge service), 由於錯誤太多，商家和用戶還是怨聲載道。 也得罪了EBAY.  並一度宣布不使用Google search engine.  這是GOOGLE 的策略失敗。

2)  Google Phone  is anothor stupid move。  Google search engine has much higher profit margin, once it start to make hardware, and operation system on the phone, it will drug down it's profit margin noticeablely.  

This will also hurt the partnership with AAPL ( iPhone exclusively use Google engine and YouTube contents),  and next iPhone may not exclusively use Google search engine, it may open to Yahoo or even its long time enemy Microsoft for search service. At least upon user's choice.  I really don't think gPhone can compete wit Iphone.

Mobile phone is very different from PC world and more complex than PC.  Despite Google's chance to develop a successful operation system on Mobile Phone,  no one can dominate operation system on the phone. There are more than 10 OS' currently  be used. To name a few: symbian, linux, newton, windows mobile, and most recently Mac OS X from iPhone. It is already a very crowdy battle field.  Besides, Google need not only  to develop a mobile OS, but also need to maintain it. This increase a lot cost to draw from Google's cash flow and resource pool.  The gain is negtive.  Google can provide mobile search service without deveolp it's own operation system and phone.  Just like what it did on PC world. And search engine maintainance is a lot less.

Google should put more resources in YouTube utilization and new search engine in graphic AD market..(Compare to text AD it donimated.)   Turn YouTube as its new  cash cow.  We did not see any progress in these area after one year acquisition of YouTube.  Google should focus on it's core business and do what it know and good at. It just did the opposite of it, do what it does not know and not good at.

Does Google lose it's direction?  At least, it lost the focus on it's core business. It may not reflect in price immediatly, but it will over the long run.  When the great company become too ego, and too many believes to itself,  think it can do everything, it is the start point to go the opposite of itself.
 
3)  Recent subprime meltdown hurts Google AD business.  Countrywide Bank is in top 10 list of Google user. AHM which already broke, was in top 20 list of Google user.  It has more than a dozen companies from mortgages, and banks in Google top 50 user list.

So just take Google as trading vehicle, but not for long term investment. It is vulnerable in down market.

TSL:    It is also a trading  vehicle.  Last qtr was a great qtr, but it has fuzzing outlook. Besides it does not has a solid oversea customer base as STP. Almost all customers are domestic based. It is a momentum stock, currently in long term, middle term down trend. It is vulnerable in down market. 

[SAR]

To mm168,
you seems in the solar sector, right? Actually, I am concerned about STP business model. TSL have signed several big contracts with Europe for next three years. I would like to exchange thoughts with you. Please QQ

[waveplayer]

MM168,
Thanks for frankly comments. I don't have any inside information about LDK or TSL. Just common sense. Besides, I take them as trading vehcle for short term. None of them worth to hold for long term. Only STP has it's value, but it is difficult to trade option. Besides, LDK business mode is good, just the operation and process has problem.

[mm168]

I see some of your comments about LDK and TSL... but frankly I don't think you know much about these specific companies or the solar sector as a whole... but I like some of other your insightful postings...