GOOG too bullish positioned before ER, 看跌

1. It seems everyone on the board expect Goog bit $2.93 expectation. Front month cal exceed put all strick price until $460. It is very unusual. P/C radio is at the lowest level since Feb. 2005. So it is positioned very bulish before ER.

2. Analysts are almost unaminous support GOOG w/t strong buy or buy rating.

3. Goog price close to all time high.

4. But earning track record shows the bit margin continue decline from Q1,2006 to Q3. The bit margin for Q1, Q2,and Q3
are 0.32, 0.27 and 0.2 respectively.

5. The price action is not very strong back from Nov. to Dec last year when Goog break out 500 mark and failed to stay above it and quickly retrive from it.

6. Expense increase because of aggresive hiring, R&D and A&M cost. Goog China is nective contribution to Goog. Goog check out does not work well compete w/t Ebay's Pay Pal.

Conclution: Goog can not aford slightly negtive ER.

I think only Goog bit in large margin and has stuning outlook for Q2 can move goog significant upside.

The Odd favors down side.

JMHO