俠骨柔情
浪跡天涯，追月尋夢
正文
Outline of Remarks on Dollar Perspective
By F. William Engdahl 2 August 2009
I would like to address the future prospect for the US Dollar as the world key or reserve currency. The answer requires a brief look at what determinesthe relative value of the dollar today. Since President Nixon freed the dollar from gold exchange in August 1971 the dollar has been a floating currency whose value, high or low, has often been determined by political considerations as well as financial market perceptions for the future. 我在這裏要對美元作為世界主要貨幣或者儲備貨幣的前景的做一個判斷。首先需要簡略地討論一下，今天的美元價值是如何確定的？自從尼克鬆總統1971年8月宣布放棄金本位以來，美元一直是一個浮動的貨幣，美元的價值高低往往是由政治上的考慮和金融市場前景預期決定的。The relative value of the dollar since 1971 has been a very political value.That is my point. 自從1971年以來，美元的相對價值始終是一個由政治決定的價值。這是我的主要判斷。
In the context of the global financial crisis which first erupted in summer 2007 around the US sub-prime real estate problems, the dollar has defied many economists by remaining surprisingly strong despite the fact that the US financial system is in its worst crisis in all its 220 year history and its economy is sinking into what is already the worst recession since the 1930’s Great Depression. To say what the future of the dollar might be it is necessary to examine why the dollar remains relatively stable since 2007. 從2007年夏天以來、由次貸開始的全球金融危機，美元出乎意料的強勢打破了許多經濟學家的預計，盡管美國的金融係統是處於220年曆史上最糟糕的狀態中，美國經濟也陷入了1930年大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退。為了討論美元的前途，我們必須查看一下，美元為何能從2007年以來，在危機中還保持了相對穩定。 Net capital flows into dollar: 淨資本輸入美元體係
If the US economy goes into severe recession/depression as it has since 2007, then the relative value of the dollar against major trading currencies especially Japan Yen and Euro or Canadian dollar should also fall. 如果美國經濟確實從2007年就進入了衰退或者蕭條，那麽美元相對於主要貿易夥伴的貨幣價值就應該下降，例如日元，歐亞和加拿大元等。
What has the dollar done against the Euro, its major trading currency? The course has been extremely volatile since 2007, up and down. In January 2007 before the first signs of crisis in the US Mortgage-Backed Securities market, the dollar-euro stood at 1.30 and remained in a trading range to 1.36 until July 2007. By November 2007, as the crisis became evident across the banking system the dollar fell to 1.48 to the euro.那麽美元相對於歐元這個主要的貿易貨幣采取了何種行動？自從2007年以來的過程是非常動蕩的，大起大伏。在美國抵押貸款證券市場危機的跡象出現之前，2007年1月美元和歐亞的兌換率是1.30，交易中的匯率幅度可達1.36，這個匯率一直維持到2007年7月。到當年的11月，當危機在整個銀行體係中跡象很明顯的時候，美元――歐元 兌換率變成了1.48。
In 2008 dollar-euro was wildly volatile as bank failures in USA and UK spread and by April 2008 dollar fell to 1.60 to euro. Central banks around the world coordinated action after the September 15 decision by the US Government to let Lehman Bros. fail, because a systemic crisis developed globally as risk became incalculable. No one knew anymore which US banks were “too big to fail.” 2008年全年，美元－歐元的關係大幅度變動，美英銀行失敗，到四月美元下降到1.60美元兌換一歐元。全球的央行在9月15日雷曼兄弟公司破產後采取了聯合行動，因為風險變得無法預計，整個世界的金融體係陷入了危機。誰也不知道還有哪一個美國的銀行是因為“太大”而不能倒閉的。
Yes, the dollar recovered to 1.28 by October 2008. The reason was simple. Central banks had moved to contain the dollar crisis that time and then private capital flows rushed back into the dollar. Why? Because US mutual funds, US banks, US corporations all were forced to repatriate their foreignprofits to cover losses in the US. As well, European corporations that had borrowed in dollars were forced to find dollars at any price, as loans came due. All those flows drive the dollar artificially high then despite the severe crisis. 毫無疑問，在2008年的8月，美元匯率恢複到1.28。原因很簡單。各國央行采取了遏製危機的行動，私人的資本回流到美元體係中。為什麽會這樣？因為美國的對衝基金、美國的銀行、美國的公司都被迫把利潤調回來填補在美國發生的虧損。同樣，歐洲的公司必須不惜代價找到美元，歸還到期的美國貸款。所有這些貨幣流動，在嚴重的危機中推高了美元的價值。
What about the most recent dollar stability? Here we see the effect of the propaganda campaign of Wall Street banks and Washington since March 9, to drive a “suckers’rally” in the S&P 500 stocks and to speak of seeing “green shoots” of recovery. The Obama Administration under direction of Economic Czar Larry Summers, has already manipulated US economic data for GDP and other data more than any president in history to date, to help fuel the myth of recovery. The latest US GDP data announced July 31 contained thelargest revision to GDP statistics in history, whose effect is to make the GDP decline look like recession is ending. The “recession” is not ending. It is just beginning. The worst is yet to come.那麽最近美元的穩定又該如何解釋？我們在這裏看到華爾街銀行和華盛頓3月9日以來宣傳戰的成功，它們開動了一場“標準/普爾500股票 ”吸血鬼狂歡，還說什麽看見了複蘇的“綠意”。奧巴馬政府在經濟沙皇萊爾.薩莫斯的領導下修改了美國GDP等數據，做得比任何往屆政府都更惡劣，用這個辦法來製造複蘇的神話。7月31日公布的最近的美國GDP數字被修正得好像“衰退”已經觸底。其實衰退還剛剛開始，最糟糕的事情還沒有發生。
The US economic reality: 美國經濟現實
The reality of the US economy is opposite the propaganda of Wall Street.美國經濟的現實和華爾街的宣傳正相反。In real economic terms, the US Economy is already in a Depression. The GrandBenchmark Revision of the National Income Accounts on July 31, 2009 confirmed that the US economy is in its worst economic contraction since thefirst down wave of the Great Depression in the early 1930s. 從真正的經濟意義上講，美國的經濟已經陷入蕭條。2009年7月31日的經過基準數字修訂的國民收入，可以確認美國經濟已經出現了大蕭條以來最嚴重的緊縮。
As one former Reagan Treasury official recently stated, “There is no economy left to recover. The US manufacturing economy was lost to off-shoring and free trade ideology. It was replaced by a mythical ‘New Economy’ based on services. It was fed by the Federal Reserve's artificially low interest rates, which produced a real estate bubble, and by "free market" financial deregulation, which unleashed financial gangsters to new heights of debt leverage and fraudulent financial products.”裏根的一位前財政部官員最近這樣說過，“我們已經沒有什麽可以恢複的經濟了。美國的製造業經濟已經輸給了‘外包’和自由貿易的意識形態，被一個建築在服務業基礎上的奇妙的‘新經濟’取代了。這個新經濟被美聯儲人為壓低的利率支撐起來，被房地產泡沫、被‘自由的市場’金融‘去監管化’釋放出來的犯罪團夥、被更高的債務杠杆和帶有欺詐內容的金融產品滋養出來了。
”When that make-believe economy collapsed, Americans' wealth in their real estate, pensions, and savings collapsed dramatically while their jobs disappeared. The debt economy caused Americans to leverage their assets. They refinanced their homes and spent the equity. They spent their limit on numerous credit cards. They worked as many jobs as they could find. Debt expansion and multiple family incomes kept the US economy going over the past two decades.當這個自欺欺人的經濟垮下去的時候，當美國人工作崗位消失的時候，他們在房地產、養老基金和儲蓄中的財產也大規模地垮掉了。這個債務經濟迫使美國人把自己的財產當作杠杆來使用：他們為自己的住宅再融資，把自己的資產押進去。他們把無數信用卡上的信貸額度用完了。他們盡量多兼職工作。是債務的擴張和每個家庭都盡量多地兼職，才把美國經濟又支撐了20年。
Now suddenly Americans can't borrow in order to spend. They are over their heads in debt. Jobs are disappearing. America's consumer economy, approximately 70% of GDP, is dead. Those Americans who still have jobs are saving against the prospect of job loss. Millions are homeless. Some have moved in with family and friends; others are living in tent cities.然後突然之間美國人不能借債消費了。他們背負的債務已經淹沒了他們自己。工作崗位不斷消失。這個要消費國民生產總值70%以上的美國的消費經濟已經死亡。還在就業的美國人也在為了將來可能失業而儲蓄了。成百萬的人又變得無家可歸。有一些和親朋好友擠住，另外的搬進了帳篷“市區”。
The current economic downturn increasingly will be referred to as a depression. It is far from over. This downturn will continue to deteriorate,be extremely protracted, extremely deep and not responsive to traditional economic stimulus. July 2009 marked the 19th month of US economic contraction, the longest downturn since the early 1930s first down wave of the Great Depression. The most recent quarterly GDP contractions, as well asannual declines of 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively, in first- and second-quarters 2009, are the worst in the history of the quarterly GDP series thatgoes back to 1947.越來越多的人會把目前發生的經濟下滑稱為衰退。“見底”還遠得很。這個下降趨勢會惡化和持續非常長久的時間，會衰退得非常深，而且無力回應通常的經濟刺激手段。2009年的7月是美國經濟收縮的第19個月，已經是大蕭條以來最長久的收縮。在2009年第一季度和第二季度發生的經濟收縮的規模(3.3% )，年度經濟收縮的規模(3.9%,)，已經是1947年以來最糟糕的情境了。
The US economy suffers from severe underlying structural problems tied to consumer debt relative to income. Households cannot keep up with inflation and no longer can rely on excessive debt expansion for meeting short-falls in maintaining living standards. The structural issues are not being addressed meaningfully by the Obama stimulus programs. They cannot be addressed without a significant fundamental change in government economic and trade policies, which under the best of circumstances still would drag out economic depression for many years to come. In short, since 2007 US consumers have been saving to pay down their huge credit card, auto and homedebts. They are not and will not consume for a long time. In the past 12 months they have reduced debt by a staggering $2 trillion. That has reduced the economic growth seriously and is the driver of the depression. There is no choice. 美國經濟正在麵臨的是的深刻的結構問題，它是消費者過度負債和收入之間的長期關係的後果。居民家庭的收入無法跟上通漲的速度，同時又不能再依靠過度借貸維持短期的生活水平不要下降。奧巴馬政府的刺激計劃根本沒有觸及這個結構性問題。如果不徹底改變政府的經濟政策、政治政策和貿易政策，這個問題也是無法觸及的，既使是在最好的情境下，這個結構性問題也會在將來很多年月裏導致經濟的衰退。概括地說，2007年以來美國消費者已經在儲蓄，為了支付信用卡消費、為購買汽車和住房而儲蓄。他們在很長的時間裏不能再“消費”。僅僅在過去的12個月裏，他們就消減了2萬億美元的債務，這個行動同時也壓低了經濟發展的速度，是使經濟發生蕭條的“發動機”。但是他們已經沒有別的選擇了。
If we calculate data in absence of the official manipulation or “cooking the books”, the real estimate of unemployment is above 20% today, not the official 9.5%. The GDP is declining at the most severe rate since the SecondWorld War and rapidly nearing levels of the Great Depression. 如果我們不受政府的影響來分析數據，不“玩弄統計”數字，那麽今天美國的失業率已經達到20%，不是官方宣布的9.5%。GDP下降的速度也是二戰以來最快的，迅速逼近了大蕭條的水平。
US manufacturing output is collapsing. Household debt levels are at the highest in US history over 300% of disposable income. Corporate debt is equally high. Government debt is at a record and soon to reach 100% of GDP. The United States economy is caught in a debt trap of its own making.美國製造業產出正在垮下來。家庭負債的水平是美國曆史上最高的――達到可支配收入的300%。公司負債的水平也達到這個水平。政府債務水平也創了紀錄，不久將同GDP相等。美國經濟已經落入了它自己製造出來的債務陷阱。
Prospects for the dollar:美元的前途
China is today in the new position of being the world’s largest creditor. Suddenly leading G7 officials and prominent people like former IMF head Candessus say “We should invite China to a seat at the Big Table” Why? They forget today that “Table” is “Made in China” US is world’s largestnet debtor. They hope China will use its wealth to bailout the dollar system that is collapsing. I assume Chinese policymakers are more intelligent than they do and that they will continue to look to securing national economic security in this crisis. It will be complicated but not impossible.今天的中國坐上了世界最大債主的第一把交椅。突然之間，G7的官員和國際大腕們，例如前IMF的總裁坎迪薩斯（Candessus） 說，“我們應當邀請中國坐到‘大桌’前邊來。”為什麽要他們邀請中國？他們是否忘記了“大桌子”是“中國製造”？美國才是世界上最大的負債者。他們想讓中國用自己的財富把崩潰中美國體係拯救出來。我假定，中國的決策者其實思考的比行動更深，他們將繼續努力在這場危機中保衛國民經濟的安全。解決問題很複雜，但決不是不可能。
Since 1985 when the United States became a net debtor country for the first time since the First World War, the United States has become the world’s largest net debtor country. As of January 2009, America's net international investment position was a negative $3.47 trillion, the Commerce Department reported. That represents the difference between the value of U.S. assets owned by foreigners ($23.36 trillion) and the value of foreign assets owned by Americans ($19.89 trillion). The USA as a single entity, public and private owes the world $3.47 trillion. Much of that is to China, ironically.The USA is a military superpower today but an economic dwarf.美國自從1985年以來一直是一個淨負債的國家，這是從一戰以來首次出現的情境。現在美國已經是世界上最大的負債國。2009年1月，美國商務部報告美國的淨國際投資是負的3.47萬億美元。這是這個數字是外國人擁有的美國資產（23.36萬億美元）和美國人擁有的外國資產（19.98萬億美元）之差。作為一個整體的美國，公私兩方共欠全世界3.47萬億美元。其中很大一部分是欠中國的。今天的美國是軍事上的巨人，在經濟上已經成了侏儒。
During 2008 alone the USA net debt grew by $1.33 trillion, or 62 percent. The tendency is not getting better as bank bailout and other economic coats soar. 僅僅在2008年一年中，美國的淨債務就增加了1.33萬億美元，增幅是62%。迄今這個趨勢沒有發生任何改變，因為要救市，還有其他的經濟成本都在飛升。
Foreigners now hold nearly 50 percent of the federal government's publicly held debt. If foreign investors significantly reduce their purchase of future US Treasury debt securities, without even dumping their current holdings, US interest rates could soar and the dollar could collapse. America's net debtor status with foreigners is at the highest level in US history.外國人現在事實上持有聯邦政府差不多50%的公共債務。如果外國投資人真的開始減少購買今後的美國財政部的債券，甚至不用減持已購買的債務，美元利率就會飛升，美元就會大跌。美國欠外國人的債務的規模達到美國曆史上前所未有的水平。
That did not matter as long as the dollar remained world reserve currency and as long as foreign investors financed that debt with buying US Government bonds and other assets, good or bad. 當美元還是世界儲備貨幣的時候，欠債是不成問題的，隻要外國投資人還來購買美國政府債券和其他資產，不論好壞，欠債都不成為問題。
In recent years two major sources of dollar buying have supported the US dollar. One has been the rising dollar price of world oil. That lasted through approximately August 2008 when oil began to fall dramatically from its all-time high of $147 a barrel to levels around $40 by January 2009. Lower oil price means lower demand for trade dollars.最近幾年裏，有兩種因素支持了美國的美元。第一是石油價格高漲。2008年8月前後漲到最高點147美元一桶，隨後大跌至2009年1月的40美元左右。低落的石油價格意味著對美元的需求疲軟。
The other major source of dollar support has come from trade surplus countries with the USA whose central banks have little place to invest thosedollars as safe as in US Government debt. The largest dollar debt buyers inthe recent past for different reasons have been the central banks of Russia, Japan and, far ahead of all others—The Peoples Bank of China. 支持美元價值的第二個因素是世界各國對美國的貿易順差，那些國家的央行沒有什麽別的地方去投資，把美國政府債務當成了安全避風港。最近出於不同的理由，購買美元債務最大的買主中有俄國、日本等國家；而遠遠超了過所有的買主，中國的人民銀行是最大的買家。
The United States economic model of the past thirty years of ongoing trade and current account deficits is nearing the end of sustainability, as financial markets and foreign governments begin to worry it is not sustainable any longer. No one can say when the dollar will react, but that it must fall in the months ahead is clear. Only a dramatic and unexpected war might conceivably buy a little more time for the dollar. Even that is not certain so great are the deficits.以往30年的美國的對外貿易和經常賬戶赤字經濟模型是不可持續的，現在已經走到了頭，因為金融市場和外國的政府開始擔憂，這個模式再也不能維持了。無人能夠準確地說出美元何時會出“變數”，但是在今後不久美元將要貶值是確定無疑的。隻有戲劇性變化或者出乎意料的戰爭，也許才能為美元再贏得一點生存的時間，而且由於這樣做所要付的代價，做了是否就有用也是很難說的。
The United States today is caught in a deadly debt trap much as Argentina orother Third World countries were during the 1980’s. But that is not all. The prospects for Federal US Government deficits going forward are extremelynegative as well: 美國今天實際上已經陷入了和阿根廷以及第三世界在1980年一樣的債務陷阱。這還沒有完，美國聯邦政府對付赤字的前景同樣是極端的陰暗。
Conclusion結語
The US government's budget deficit has jumped from $455 billion in 2008 to $2,000 billion this year, with another $2,000 billion on the books for 2010. And President Obama has intensified America's expensive war in Afghanistan and initiated a new war in Pakistan.美國政府的預算赤字：2008年4550億美元，將在今年底飆升到2萬億美元。奧巴馬總統已經在阿富汗擴大了戰事，又在巴基斯坦開打新的戰爭。美國沒有別的辦法為戰爭融資，除了印刷更多的鈔票，或者壓低股市，那樣做將會把人們引向放棄財產轉持債券。
There is no way for these deficits to be financed except by printing money or by further collapse in stock markets that would drive people out of equity into bonds.The US government's budget is 50% in deficit. That means half of every dollar the federal government spends must be borrowed or printed. Because ofthe worldwide debacle caused by Wall Street's financial greed, the world needs its own money and is growing unwilling to lend $2 trillion annually to lend to Washington. And the US Budget deficit will remain at least $1 trillion or more for the next ten years or more.美國政府的預算赤字達到50%。這意味著美國政府每一美元的支出中，有一半必須靠借債或者靠印鈔票。由於全世界都被華爾街的貪婪擊中，這個世界現在需要自己的貨幣，越來越不情願每年拿出2萬億美元的錢借給華盛頓用。美國的預算赤字在今後的10年或者更長的時期中，至少會保持在1萬億美元或者更高的水平上。
As dollars are printed, the growing supply adds to the pressure on the dollar's role as reserve currency. Already America's largest creditor, China, is warning Washington to protect China's investment in US debt and discussing a new reserve currency to replace the dollar before it collapses.According to various reports, China is spending down its holdings of US dollars by acquiring gold and stocks of raw materials and energy. That makesmuch sense.美元鈔票印得越多，對它作為儲備貨幣功能的壓力就越大。作為美國最大的債權國，中國已經警告過華盛頓，必須保護中國投資的安全，並且提出了在美元體係崩潰之前，創造替代美元的新的儲備貨幣這個問題。從多種渠道傳來的信息表明，中國正在用美元購買黃金和資源/能源的股票。這才是更清醒的做法。
The price of one ounce gold coins is $1,000 despite efforts of the US government to hold down the gold price. How high will this price jump when the rest of the world decides that the bankruptcy of "the world's only superpower" is here?盡管美國政府想壓低黃金價格，每盎司黃金仍然出於1000美元的水平。我們不知道，當全世界都認為“唯一超級大國”崩潰近在眼前的時候，黃金的價格會跳上什麽台階？
Nothing in Obama's economic policy is directed at saving the US dollar as reserve currency or the livelihoods of the American people. Obama's policy, like Bush's before him, is keyed to the enrichment of Goldman Sachs and the armament industries.奧巴馬政府的經濟政策中根本沒有拯救美元儲備貨幣地位、拯救美國人民生活水平的內容。奧巴馬的政策，和他之前的布什政府的政策一樣，都是為高盛和軍事工業巨頭的財富服務的。
Look at the Goldman Sachs representatives in the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. This Wall Street firm controls the economic policy of the United States. Little wonder that Goldman Sachs has record earnings. But theUS economy is going into severe depression and the dollar with it.看看高盛派到克林頓政府、布什和奧巴馬政府中的代表，我們就可以看得很清楚，這家華爾街企業控製了美國的經濟政策。高盛盈利賺大錢是沒有什麽稀奇的事情。可是美國的經濟將要陷入嚴重的衰退，和經濟衰退走在一起的，將是美元的衰落。
By F. William Engdahl 2 August 2009
I would like to address the future prospect for the US Dollar as the world key or reserve currency. The answer requires a brief look at what determinesthe relative value of the dollar today. Since President Nixon freed the dollar from gold exchange in August 1971 the dollar has been a floating currency whose value, high or low, has often been determined by political considerations as well as financial market perceptions for the future. 我在這裏要對美元作為世界主要貨幣或者儲備貨幣的前景的做一個判斷。首先需要簡略地討論一下，今天的美元價值是如何確定的？自從尼克鬆總統1971年8月宣布放棄金本位以來，美元一直是一個浮動的貨幣，美元的價值高低往往是由政治上的考慮和金融市場前景預期決定的。The relative value of the dollar since 1971 has been a very political value.That is my point. 自從1971年以來，美元的相對價值始終是一個由政治決定的價值。這是我的主要判斷。
In the context of the global financial crisis which first erupted in summer 2007 around the US sub-prime real estate problems, the dollar has defied many economists by remaining surprisingly strong despite the fact that the US financial system is in its worst crisis in all its 220 year history and its economy is sinking into what is already the worst recession since the 1930’s Great Depression. To say what the future of the dollar might be it is necessary to examine why the dollar remains relatively stable since 2007. 從2007年夏天以來、由次貸開始的全球金融危機，美元出乎意料的強勢打破了許多經濟學家的預計，盡管美國的金融係統是處於220年曆史上最糟糕的狀態中，美國經濟也陷入了1930年大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退。為了討論美元的前途，我們必須查看一下，美元為何能從2007年以來，在危機中還保持了相對穩定。 Net capital flows into dollar: 淨資本輸入美元體係
If the US economy goes into severe recession/depression as it has since 2007, then the relative value of the dollar against major trading currencies especially Japan Yen and Euro or Canadian dollar should also fall. 如果美國經濟確實從2007年就進入了衰退或者蕭條，那麽美元相對於主要貿易夥伴的貨幣價值就應該下降，例如日元，歐亞和加拿大元等。
What has the dollar done against the Euro, its major trading currency? The course has been extremely volatile since 2007, up and down. In January 2007 before the first signs of crisis in the US Mortgage-Backed Securities market, the dollar-euro stood at 1.30 and remained in a trading range to 1.36 until July 2007. By November 2007, as the crisis became evident across the banking system the dollar fell to 1.48 to the euro.那麽美元相對於歐元這個主要的貿易貨幣采取了何種行動？自從2007年以來的過程是非常動蕩的，大起大伏。在美國抵押貸款證券市場危機的跡象出現之前，2007年1月美元和歐亞的兌換率是1.30，交易中的匯率幅度可達1.36，這個匯率一直維持到2007年7月。到當年的11月，當危機在整個銀行體係中跡象很明顯的時候，美元――歐元 兌換率變成了1.48。
In 2008 dollar-euro was wildly volatile as bank failures in USA and UK spread and by April 2008 dollar fell to 1.60 to euro. Central banks around the world coordinated action after the September 15 decision by the US Government to let Lehman Bros. fail, because a systemic crisis developed globally as risk became incalculable. No one knew anymore which US banks were “too big to fail.” 2008年全年，美元－歐元的關係大幅度變動，美英銀行失敗，到四月美元下降到1.60美元兌換一歐元。全球的央行在9月15日雷曼兄弟公司破產後采取了聯合行動，因為風險變得無法預計，整個世界的金融體係陷入了危機。誰也不知道還有哪一個美國的銀行是因為“太大”而不能倒閉的。
Yes, the dollar recovered to 1.28 by October 2008. The reason was simple. Central banks had moved to contain the dollar crisis that time and then private capital flows rushed back into the dollar. Why? Because US mutual funds, US banks, US corporations all were forced to repatriate their foreignprofits to cover losses in the US. As well, European corporations that had borrowed in dollars were forced to find dollars at any price, as loans came due. All those flows drive the dollar artificially high then despite the severe crisis. 毫無疑問，在2008年的8月，美元匯率恢複到1.28。原因很簡單。各國央行采取了遏製危機的行動，私人的資本回流到美元體係中。為什麽會這樣？因為美國的對衝基金、美國的銀行、美國的公司都被迫把利潤調回來填補在美國發生的虧損。同樣，歐洲的公司必須不惜代價找到美元，歸還到期的美國貸款。所有這些貨幣流動，在嚴重的危機中推高了美元的價值。
What about the most recent dollar stability? Here we see the effect of the propaganda campaign of Wall Street banks and Washington since March 9, to drive a “suckers’rally” in the S&P 500 stocks and to speak of seeing “green shoots” of recovery. The Obama Administration under direction of Economic Czar Larry Summers, has already manipulated US economic data for GDP and other data more than any president in history to date, to help fuel the myth of recovery. The latest US GDP data announced July 31 contained thelargest revision to GDP statistics in history, whose effect is to make the GDP decline look like recession is ending. The “recession” is not ending. It is just beginning. The worst is yet to come.那麽最近美元的穩定又該如何解釋？我們在這裏看到華爾街銀行和華盛頓3月9日以來宣傳戰的成功，它們開動了一場“標準/普爾500股票 ”吸血鬼狂歡，還說什麽看見了複蘇的“綠意”。奧巴馬政府在經濟沙皇萊爾.薩莫斯的領導下修改了美國GDP等數據，做得比任何往屆政府都更惡劣，用這個辦法來製造複蘇的神話。7月31日公布的最近的美國GDP數字被修正得好像“衰退”已經觸底。其實衰退還剛剛開始，最糟糕的事情還沒有發生。
The US economic reality: 美國經濟現實
The reality of the US economy is opposite the propaganda of Wall Street.美國經濟的現實和華爾街的宣傳正相反。In real economic terms, the US Economy is already in a Depression. The GrandBenchmark Revision of the National Income Accounts on July 31, 2009 confirmed that the US economy is in its worst economic contraction since thefirst down wave of the Great Depression in the early 1930s. 從真正的經濟意義上講，美國的經濟已經陷入蕭條。2009年7月31日的經過基準數字修訂的國民收入，可以確認美國經濟已經出現了大蕭條以來最嚴重的緊縮。
As one former Reagan Treasury official recently stated, “There is no economy left to recover. The US manufacturing economy was lost to off-shoring and free trade ideology. It was replaced by a mythical ‘New Economy’ based on services. It was fed by the Federal Reserve's artificially low interest rates, which produced a real estate bubble, and by "free market" financial deregulation, which unleashed financial gangsters to new heights of debt leverage and fraudulent financial products.”裏根的一位前財政部官員最近這樣說過，“我們已經沒有什麽可以恢複的經濟了。美國的製造業經濟已經輸給了‘外包’和自由貿易的意識形態，被一個建築在服務業基礎上的奇妙的‘新經濟’取代了。這個新經濟被美聯儲人為壓低的利率支撐起來，被房地產泡沫、被‘自由的市場’金融‘去監管化’釋放出來的犯罪團夥、被更高的債務杠杆和帶有欺詐內容的金融產品滋養出來了。
”When that make-believe economy collapsed, Americans' wealth in their real estate, pensions, and savings collapsed dramatically while their jobs disappeared. The debt economy caused Americans to leverage their assets. They refinanced their homes and spent the equity. They spent their limit on numerous credit cards. They worked as many jobs as they could find. Debt expansion and multiple family incomes kept the US economy going over the past two decades.當這個自欺欺人的經濟垮下去的時候，當美國人工作崗位消失的時候，他們在房地產、養老基金和儲蓄中的財產也大規模地垮掉了。這個債務經濟迫使美國人把自己的財產當作杠杆來使用：他們為自己的住宅再融資，把自己的資產押進去。他們把無數信用卡上的信貸額度用完了。他們盡量多兼職工作。是債務的擴張和每個家庭都盡量多地兼職，才把美國經濟又支撐了20年。
Now suddenly Americans can't borrow in order to spend. They are over their heads in debt. Jobs are disappearing. America's consumer economy, approximately 70% of GDP, is dead. Those Americans who still have jobs are saving against the prospect of job loss. Millions are homeless. Some have moved in with family and friends; others are living in tent cities.然後突然之間美國人不能借債消費了。他們背負的債務已經淹沒了他們自己。工作崗位不斷消失。這個要消費國民生產總值70%以上的美國的消費經濟已經死亡。還在就業的美國人也在為了將來可能失業而儲蓄了。成百萬的人又變得無家可歸。有一些和親朋好友擠住，另外的搬進了帳篷“市區”。
The current economic downturn increasingly will be referred to as a depression. It is far from over. This downturn will continue to deteriorate,be extremely protracted, extremely deep and not responsive to traditional economic stimulus. July 2009 marked the 19th month of US economic contraction, the longest downturn since the early 1930s first down wave of the Great Depression. The most recent quarterly GDP contractions, as well asannual declines of 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively, in first- and second-quarters 2009, are the worst in the history of the quarterly GDP series thatgoes back to 1947.越來越多的人會把目前發生的經濟下滑稱為衰退。“見底”還遠得很。這個下降趨勢會惡化和持續非常長久的時間，會衰退得非常深，而且無力回應通常的經濟刺激手段。2009年的7月是美國經濟收縮的第19個月，已經是大蕭條以來最長久的收縮。在2009年第一季度和第二季度發生的經濟收縮的規模(3.3% )，年度經濟收縮的規模(3.9%,)，已經是1947年以來最糟糕的情境了。
The US economy suffers from severe underlying structural problems tied to consumer debt relative to income. Households cannot keep up with inflation and no longer can rely on excessive debt expansion for meeting short-falls in maintaining living standards. The structural issues are not being addressed meaningfully by the Obama stimulus programs. They cannot be addressed without a significant fundamental change in government economic and trade policies, which under the best of circumstances still would drag out economic depression for many years to come. In short, since 2007 US consumers have been saving to pay down their huge credit card, auto and homedebts. They are not and will not consume for a long time. In the past 12 months they have reduced debt by a staggering $2 trillion. That has reduced the economic growth seriously and is the driver of the depression. There is no choice. 美國經濟正在麵臨的是的深刻的結構問題，它是消費者過度負債和收入之間的長期關係的後果。居民家庭的收入無法跟上通漲的速度，同時又不能再依靠過度借貸維持短期的生活水平不要下降。奧巴馬政府的刺激計劃根本沒有觸及這個結構性問題。如果不徹底改變政府的經濟政策、政治政策和貿易政策，這個問題也是無法觸及的，既使是在最好的情境下，這個結構性問題也會在將來很多年月裏導致經濟的衰退。概括地說，2007年以來美國消費者已經在儲蓄，為了支付信用卡消費、為購買汽車和住房而儲蓄。他們在很長的時間裏不能再“消費”。僅僅在過去的12個月裏，他們就消減了2萬億美元的債務，這個行動同時也壓低了經濟發展的速度，是使經濟發生蕭條的“發動機”。但是他們已經沒有別的選擇了。
If we calculate data in absence of the official manipulation or “cooking the books”, the real estimate of unemployment is above 20% today, not the official 9.5%. The GDP is declining at the most severe rate since the SecondWorld War and rapidly nearing levels of the Great Depression. 如果我們不受政府的影響來分析數據，不“玩弄統計”數字，那麽今天美國的失業率已經達到20%，不是官方宣布的9.5%。GDP下降的速度也是二戰以來最快的，迅速逼近了大蕭條的水平。
US manufacturing output is collapsing. Household debt levels are at the highest in US history over 300% of disposable income. Corporate debt is equally high. Government debt is at a record and soon to reach 100% of GDP. The United States economy is caught in a debt trap of its own making.美國製造業產出正在垮下來。家庭負債的水平是美國曆史上最高的――達到可支配收入的300%。公司負債的水平也達到這個水平。政府債務水平也創了紀錄，不久將同GDP相等。美國經濟已經落入了它自己製造出來的債務陷阱。
Prospects for the dollar:美元的前途
China is today in the new position of being the world’s largest creditor. Suddenly leading G7 officials and prominent people like former IMF head Candessus say “We should invite China to a seat at the Big Table” Why? They forget today that “Table” is “Made in China” US is world’s largestnet debtor. They hope China will use its wealth to bailout the dollar system that is collapsing. I assume Chinese policymakers are more intelligent than they do and that they will continue to look to securing national economic security in this crisis. It will be complicated but not impossible.今天的中國坐上了世界最大債主的第一把交椅。突然之間，G7的官員和國際大腕們，例如前IMF的總裁坎迪薩斯（Candessus） 說，“我們應當邀請中國坐到‘大桌’前邊來。”為什麽要他們邀請中國？他們是否忘記了“大桌子”是“中國製造”？美國才是世界上最大的負債者。他們想讓中國用自己的財富把崩潰中美國體係拯救出來。我假定，中國的決策者其實思考的比行動更深，他們將繼續努力在這場危機中保衛國民經濟的安全。解決問題很複雜，但決不是不可能。
Since 1985 when the United States became a net debtor country for the first time since the First World War, the United States has become the world’s largest net debtor country. As of January 2009, America's net international investment position was a negative $3.47 trillion, the Commerce Department reported. That represents the difference between the value of U.S. assets owned by foreigners ($23.36 trillion) and the value of foreign assets owned by Americans ($19.89 trillion). The USA as a single entity, public and private owes the world $3.47 trillion. Much of that is to China, ironically.The USA is a military superpower today but an economic dwarf.美國自從1985年以來一直是一個淨負債的國家，這是從一戰以來首次出現的情境。現在美國已經是世界上最大的負債國。2009年1月，美國商務部報告美國的淨國際投資是負的3.47萬億美元。這是這個數字是外國人擁有的美國資產（23.36萬億美元）和美國人擁有的外國資產（19.98萬億美元）之差。作為一個整體的美國，公私兩方共欠全世界3.47萬億美元。其中很大一部分是欠中國的。今天的美國是軍事上的巨人，在經濟上已經成了侏儒。
During 2008 alone the USA net debt grew by $1.33 trillion, or 62 percent. The tendency is not getting better as bank bailout and other economic coats soar. 僅僅在2008年一年中，美國的淨債務就增加了1.33萬億美元，增幅是62%。迄今這個趨勢沒有發生任何改變，因為要救市，還有其他的經濟成本都在飛升。
Foreigners now hold nearly 50 percent of the federal government's publicly held debt. If foreign investors significantly reduce their purchase of future US Treasury debt securities, without even dumping their current holdings, US interest rates could soar and the dollar could collapse. America's net debtor status with foreigners is at the highest level in US history.外國人現在事實上持有聯邦政府差不多50%的公共債務。如果外國投資人真的開始減少購買今後的美國財政部的債券，甚至不用減持已購買的債務，美元利率就會飛升，美元就會大跌。美國欠外國人的債務的規模達到美國曆史上前所未有的水平。
That did not matter as long as the dollar remained world reserve currency and as long as foreign investors financed that debt with buying US Government bonds and other assets, good or bad. 當美元還是世界儲備貨幣的時候，欠債是不成問題的，隻要外國投資人還來購買美國政府債券和其他資產，不論好壞，欠債都不成為問題。
In recent years two major sources of dollar buying have supported the US dollar. One has been the rising dollar price of world oil. That lasted through approximately August 2008 when oil began to fall dramatically from its all-time high of $147 a barrel to levels around $40 by January 2009. Lower oil price means lower demand for trade dollars.最近幾年裏，有兩種因素支持了美國的美元。第一是石油價格高漲。2008年8月前後漲到最高點147美元一桶，隨後大跌至2009年1月的40美元左右。低落的石油價格意味著對美元的需求疲軟。
The other major source of dollar support has come from trade surplus countries with the USA whose central banks have little place to invest thosedollars as safe as in US Government debt. The largest dollar debt buyers inthe recent past for different reasons have been the central banks of Russia, Japan and, far ahead of all others—The Peoples Bank of China. 支持美元價值的第二個因素是世界各國對美國的貿易順差，那些國家的央行沒有什麽別的地方去投資，把美國政府債務當成了安全避風港。最近出於不同的理由，購買美元債務最大的買主中有俄國、日本等國家；而遠遠超了過所有的買主，中國的人民銀行是最大的買家。
The United States economic model of the past thirty years of ongoing trade and current account deficits is nearing the end of sustainability, as financial markets and foreign governments begin to worry it is not sustainable any longer. No one can say when the dollar will react, but that it must fall in the months ahead is clear. Only a dramatic and unexpected war might conceivably buy a little more time for the dollar. Even that is not certain so great are the deficits.以往30年的美國的對外貿易和經常賬戶赤字經濟模型是不可持續的，現在已經走到了頭，因為金融市場和外國的政府開始擔憂，這個模式再也不能維持了。無人能夠準確地說出美元何時會出“變數”，但是在今後不久美元將要貶值是確定無疑的。隻有戲劇性變化或者出乎意料的戰爭，也許才能為美元再贏得一點生存的時間，而且由於這樣做所要付的代價，做了是否就有用也是很難說的。
The United States today is caught in a deadly debt trap much as Argentina orother Third World countries were during the 1980’s. But that is not all. The prospects for Federal US Government deficits going forward are extremelynegative as well: 美國今天實際上已經陷入了和阿根廷以及第三世界在1980年一樣的債務陷阱。這還沒有完，美國聯邦政府對付赤字的前景同樣是極端的陰暗。
Conclusion結語
The US government's budget deficit has jumped from $455 billion in 2008 to $2,000 billion this year, with another $2,000 billion on the books for 2010. And President Obama has intensified America's expensive war in Afghanistan and initiated a new war in Pakistan.美國政府的預算赤字：2008年4550億美元，將在今年底飆升到2萬億美元。奧巴馬總統已經在阿富汗擴大了戰事，又在巴基斯坦開打新的戰爭。美國沒有別的辦法為戰爭融資，除了印刷更多的鈔票，或者壓低股市，那樣做將會把人們引向放棄財產轉持債券。
There is no way for these deficits to be financed except by printing money or by further collapse in stock markets that would drive people out of equity into bonds.The US government's budget is 50% in deficit. That means half of every dollar the federal government spends must be borrowed or printed. Because ofthe worldwide debacle caused by Wall Street's financial greed, the world needs its own money and is growing unwilling to lend $2 trillion annually to lend to Washington. And the US Budget deficit will remain at least $1 trillion or more for the next ten years or more.美國政府的預算赤字達到50%。這意味著美國政府每一美元的支出中，有一半必須靠借債或者靠印鈔票。由於全世界都被華爾街的貪婪擊中，這個世界現在需要自己的貨幣，越來越不情願每年拿出2萬億美元的錢借給華盛頓用。美國的預算赤字在今後的10年或者更長的時期中，至少會保持在1萬億美元或者更高的水平上。
As dollars are printed, the growing supply adds to the pressure on the dollar's role as reserve currency. Already America's largest creditor, China, is warning Washington to protect China's investment in US debt and discussing a new reserve currency to replace the dollar before it collapses.According to various reports, China is spending down its holdings of US dollars by acquiring gold and stocks of raw materials and energy. That makesmuch sense.美元鈔票印得越多，對它作為儲備貨幣功能的壓力就越大。作為美國最大的債權國，中國已經警告過華盛頓，必須保護中國投資的安全，並且提出了在美元體係崩潰之前，創造替代美元的新的儲備貨幣這個問題。從多種渠道傳來的信息表明，中國正在用美元購買黃金和資源/能源的股票。這才是更清醒的做法。
The price of one ounce gold coins is $1,000 despite efforts of the US government to hold down the gold price. How high will this price jump when the rest of the world decides that the bankruptcy of "the world's only superpower" is here?盡管美國政府想壓低黃金價格，每盎司黃金仍然出於1000美元的水平。我們不知道，當全世界都認為“唯一超級大國”崩潰近在眼前的時候，黃金的價格會跳上什麽台階？
Nothing in Obama's economic policy is directed at saving the US dollar as reserve currency or the livelihoods of the American people. Obama's policy, like Bush's before him, is keyed to the enrichment of Goldman Sachs and the armament industries.奧巴馬政府的經濟政策中根本沒有拯救美元儲備貨幣地位、拯救美國人民生活水平的內容。奧巴馬的政策，和他之前的布什政府的政策一樣，都是為高盛和軍事工業巨頭的財富服務的。
Look at the Goldman Sachs representatives in the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. This Wall Street firm controls the economic policy of the United States. Little wonder that Goldman Sachs has record earnings. But theUS economy is going into severe depression and the dollar with it.看看高盛派到克林頓政府、布什和奧巴馬政府中的代表，我們就可以看得很清楚，這家華爾街企業控製了美國的經濟政策。高盛盈利賺大錢是沒有什麽稀奇的事情。可是美國的經濟將要陷入嚴重的衰退，和經濟衰退走在一起的，將是美元的衰落。
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