my estimation of dow nadir is around 5250.

I focus on the problematic 6 stocks in DOW and give them good faith estimation based on AIG/FRE/FNM outcomes. and I assume the rest 24 stocks will be dragged down 10%,15%, 20% when those 6 problematic ones are resolved. The nadir might be around 5250. if Fed intervene by buying stocks like HK did before, the nadir could be around 5900.

current price total 6626.94	0.125552709	832.0302694		

						

		                  From	To			

Problematic 6 in DOW	C	1.03	0.45			

	                  BAC	3.13	1			

	                  GE	7.06	5			

	                  GM	1.45	0.45			

	                  AA	5.22	2			

	                  AXP	10.26	7			

						

subtotal of above 6		28	15.9			                          Final Dow

remaing 24		804.0302694	683.425729	assume 15% off		5569.977219

remaing 24		804.0327	723.62943	assume 10% off		5890.190948

remaining 24		804.0327	643.22616	assume 20% off		5249.796402