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2008之回顧與2009之展望 老周
今年由於對油價的判斷嚴重失誤,損失慘重.是我有史以來最慘的一年.今年也比往年操作頻繁,章法有些紊亂.以下是我剛剛在投資日誌上寫下的2008年總結與檢討(括弧內為新加的COMMENTS),除個別數目用XXX和個別SHORT的股票用AAA等代替外,其餘均為真實數據,所以請大家不要POST到別的地方去.謝謝.
It has been a tough year for me. I lost about 23% overall this year ---26.7% for my own account, -15.4% for 401K, and +11.3% for IRAs (youmight not believe this, but it is true. These two accounts hold Canadaand natural resource funds till May, and then treasuries since. I wishmy other accounts did the same thing). This is the worst year in my 15years investment career.
Review of 2008 (most of the things I mentioned in this group already):
1. Bought 5% homebuilder TOL at last year end and early January (stilloptimistic for a quick recovery then), made 30% profit after somehedges.
2. Bought 10% food DBA at last year end for this year’s USD hedge.Didn’t make a penny out of this strategy, despite two reasonablysuccessful short-term trades for hedging (thanks to Zeng xiong).
3. Shorted four Chinese ADRs (AAA, BB, CCC, DDD) with 10% weightingstarting last year end and January (when Shanghai Index at 5400), andmade about 25% in less than 2 months (covered way too early).
4. Bought 5% financials in March (2% AIG, 1.5% IRE, and 1.5% AIB). Iwas still optimistic and thought that the subprime crisis was overexaggerated. I lost 20% in a couple of weeks after some initial quickrebounce (should have paid more attention to it888 xiong’s warnings).Sold all AIG/IRE/AIB in May with 20-30% loss (This is the turning pointfor my recognition of the deeper recession and oil crisis).
5. Started selling GRMN since Feb/March after meeting the 2-yearholding period rule. Finished all selling in May/June with big lossesthis year. I turned a 3X into a 40% only gainer, and lost more than$XXX K from last year’s top in GRMN. 犯了教條主義大錯 (modified the rule later,but too late).
6. In May/June, after recognizing the deeper problem, I made a drasticmove for my 401K and IRAs. Sold all funds, except the Canadian naturalresource funds in 401K, and moved proceeds into short term treasuries.Also started a major surgery for my own managed account. 為了掩護大部隊撤退,bought a large amount of (YYY) puts for SPY Sept 90 with a cost of$0.26 each (but too early by one month – the puts expired worthless inSept – I should have bought Oct puts :-):-).(當然這個犧牲還是值得的,因為它們為我的IBM,MO,PM等贏得了時間).
7. In May-August, started gradually selling my remaining GS at $190-180after owning it for 7 years (the other half was sold at $220 at lastyear end, 3-bagger). Sold IBM at $120-125 after owning for 5 years(2-bagger); sold MO at $20-22 and PM at $53-55 (almost at the peakprice, 6-bagger, my largest single holding) after owning them about 10years; sold BA/LMT (converted BA to LMT at year beginning) at $112after 7 years (4-bagger); sold HD at $22 with a 50% LOSS after owningfor 4 years; and sold relatively new holdings USG and HOG with a 10-30%haircut.
8. In June, when the mania of oil crisis went on in the media, I“contributed” to the mania with my own Peak Oil series (withoutrealizing the good time is over). Instead of taking profits in ECA andCOP (both owned for more than 5 years, and 4-5 baggers then), I thoughtPO is hitting and the oil price should see $200 before seeing $100again (to be fair with myself, I did have some concern over ECA’s pricejump when it touched $90/sh, and sold some covered calls for both ECAand COP, but compared to the following sharp decline, these coveredcalls are nothing).
9. The BIG mistake came in September/October when the oil priceretreated back down to $100. I bought 5% RIG at $145-135 (when oil wasabout $110-100), and added 5% USO at $82 (when oil around $90-91). Alsoinitiated 5% in natural gas players (CHK/XTO, UNG). At the peak, I hadabout 30% weighting in oil, 10% in food, and 5% in NG. Plus 15% insilver/gold, I had close to 60% in strategic natural resources (whilethe rest all in T-bills).
10. I did realize the coming deflation early (also wrote somethingabout it here), but thought even under a deflationary world, there willbe something different. That something will be OIL. Too bad! (In 1999,I was lucky realizing the coming crisis for high-tech, and boughtPhilip Morris. I thought this time OIL will be my Philip Morris. Thisbelief cost me dearly, a total of $YYY K. I turned myself from a bigwinner in oil to a net loser in oil). 犯了經驗主義大錯. Nevertheless, I startedadding USO again recently trying to bring back my oil weighting toclose to 30%.
11. Shorts. I started heavily shorting financials (SKF), retailers(SCC), high-tech (EEEE, FFFF) and general market (SH) since August forhedging against my oil holdings. These heavy shorts, with up to 5%weighting each, helped a lot, with many of them gaining 30-40% in a fewdays (but I haven’t done short term trading for a long time, so was notvery good at timing, and missed HUGE peaks in SKF and SCC TWICE).
12. In November, bought an apartment in Hangzhou for 170W RMB for myparents-in-law. I knew this would turn out to be my single worstinvestment, but still did it under some "pressure".(知道時機大大地不對,但我嶽父母待我很好,就算是老丈人70大壽的賀禮了.再說他們高興了,我的日子就好過了,您說是不?)
Outlook for 2009:
在當前的形勢下,許多戰術都不靈了,但戰略更重要了.我會繼續我的丈母娘原則,終值至上原則,和應對而非預測原則. I don’t dopredictions as usual, but will react as planned IF the followinghappens. The investment theme for 2009 is to preserve buying power andhedge against risks with a potential Great Square Depression andcurrency crisis. Cash is still the KING - except oil and silver/gold, Ihave no other long positions currently.
1. IF oil price keeps dropping to $30, or $20, I will add USO tomaintain my 30% weighting in oil. In other words, I will roughly doublemy current oil holdings if the oil price drops to $20/bbl.
2. IF silver price drops to $7-8, I will add silver to maintain my 15%weighting. If gold drops to $600, I will double my gold position(target 5% weighting).
3. IF Dow/Gold ratio drops to ~2 (currently 9.97), will sell myprecious metals and buy stocks (this is likely not going to happen in2009, probably in 2010-2011). But IF it drops to below 1.0, I willrefinance my mortgage, and use all my money to buy stocks.
4. Hedge my long positions in oil and silver with shorts in retailers and high-techs (will give financials a break this year).
5. 如果有豺狼來了,迎接它們的有獵槍. 朋友來了,有好酒.
今年由於對油價的判斷嚴重失誤,損失慘重.是我有史以來最慘的一年.今年也比往年操作頻繁,章法有些紊亂.以下是我剛剛在投資日誌上寫下的2008年總結與檢討(括弧內為新加的COMMENTS),除個別數目用XXX和個別SHORT的股票用AAA等代替外,其餘均為真實數據,所以請大家不要POST到別的地方去.謝謝.
It has been a tough year for me. I lost about 23% overall this year ---26.7% for my own account, -15.4% for 401K, and +11.3% for IRAs (youmight not believe this, but it is true. These two accounts hold Canadaand natural resource funds till May, and then treasuries since. I wishmy other accounts did the same thing). This is the worst year in my 15years investment career.
Review of 2008 (most of the things I mentioned in this group already):
1. Bought 5% homebuilder TOL at last year end and early January (stilloptimistic for a quick recovery then), made 30% profit after somehedges.
2. Bought 10% food DBA at last year end for this year’s USD hedge.Didn’t make a penny out of this strategy, despite two reasonablysuccessful short-term trades for hedging (thanks to Zeng xiong).
3. Shorted four Chinese ADRs (AAA, BB, CCC, DDD) with 10% weightingstarting last year end and January (when Shanghai Index at 5400), andmade about 25% in less than 2 months (covered way too early).
4. Bought 5% financials in March (2% AIG, 1.5% IRE, and 1.5% AIB). Iwas still optimistic and thought that the subprime crisis was overexaggerated. I lost 20% in a couple of weeks after some initial quickrebounce (should have paid more attention to it888 xiong’s warnings).Sold all AIG/IRE/AIB in May with 20-30% loss (This is the turning pointfor my recognition of the deeper recession and oil crisis).
5. Started selling GRMN since Feb/March after meeting the 2-yearholding period rule. Finished all selling in May/June with big lossesthis year. I turned a 3X into a 40% only gainer, and lost more than$XXX K from last year’s top in GRMN. 犯了教條主義大錯 (modified the rule later,but too late).
6. In May/June, after recognizing the deeper problem, I made a drasticmove for my 401K and IRAs. Sold all funds, except the Canadian naturalresource funds in 401K, and moved proceeds into short term treasuries.Also started a major surgery for my own managed account. 為了掩護大部隊撤退,bought a large amount of (YYY) puts for SPY Sept 90 with a cost of$0.26 each (but too early by one month – the puts expired worthless inSept – I should have bought Oct puts :-):-).(當然這個犧牲還是值得的,因為它們為我的IBM,MO,PM等贏得了時間).
7. In May-August, started gradually selling my remaining GS at $190-180after owning it for 7 years (the other half was sold at $220 at lastyear end, 3-bagger). Sold IBM at $120-125 after owning for 5 years(2-bagger); sold MO at $20-22 and PM at $53-55 (almost at the peakprice, 6-bagger, my largest single holding) after owning them about 10years; sold BA/LMT (converted BA to LMT at year beginning) at $112after 7 years (4-bagger); sold HD at $22 with a 50% LOSS after owningfor 4 years; and sold relatively new holdings USG and HOG with a 10-30%haircut.
8. In June, when the mania of oil crisis went on in the media, I“contributed” to the mania with my own Peak Oil series (withoutrealizing the good time is over). Instead of taking profits in ECA andCOP (both owned for more than 5 years, and 4-5 baggers then), I thoughtPO is hitting and the oil price should see $200 before seeing $100again (to be fair with myself, I did have some concern over ECA’s pricejump when it touched $90/sh, and sold some covered calls for both ECAand COP, but compared to the following sharp decline, these coveredcalls are nothing).
9. The BIG mistake came in September/October when the oil priceretreated back down to $100. I bought 5% RIG at $145-135 (when oil wasabout $110-100), and added 5% USO at $82 (when oil around $90-91). Alsoinitiated 5% in natural gas players (CHK/XTO, UNG). At the peak, I hadabout 30% weighting in oil, 10% in food, and 5% in NG. Plus 15% insilver/gold, I had close to 60% in strategic natural resources (whilethe rest all in T-bills).
10. I did realize the coming deflation early (also wrote somethingabout it here), but thought even under a deflationary world, there willbe something different. That something will be OIL. Too bad! (In 1999,I was lucky realizing the coming crisis for high-tech, and boughtPhilip Morris. I thought this time OIL will be my Philip Morris. Thisbelief cost me dearly, a total of $YYY K. I turned myself from a bigwinner in oil to a net loser in oil). 犯了經驗主義大錯. Nevertheless, I startedadding USO again recently trying to bring back my oil weighting toclose to 30%.
11. Shorts. I started heavily shorting financials (SKF), retailers(SCC), high-tech (EEEE, FFFF) and general market (SH) since August forhedging against my oil holdings. These heavy shorts, with up to 5%weighting each, helped a lot, with many of them gaining 30-40% in a fewdays (but I haven’t done short term trading for a long time, so was notvery good at timing, and missed HUGE peaks in SKF and SCC TWICE).
12. In November, bought an apartment in Hangzhou for 170W RMB for myparents-in-law. I knew this would turn out to be my single worstinvestment, but still did it under some "pressure".(知道時機大大地不對,但我嶽父母待我很好,就算是老丈人70大壽的賀禮了.再說他們高興了,我的日子就好過了,您說是不?)
Outlook for 2009:
在當前的形勢下,許多戰術都不靈了,但戰略更重要了.我會繼續我的丈母娘原則,終值至上原則,和應對而非預測原則. I don’t dopredictions as usual, but will react as planned IF the followinghappens. The investment theme for 2009 is to preserve buying power andhedge against risks with a potential Great Square Depression andcurrency crisis. Cash is still the KING - except oil and silver/gold, Ihave no other long positions currently.
1. IF oil price keeps dropping to $30, or $20, I will add USO tomaintain my 30% weighting in oil. In other words, I will roughly doublemy current oil holdings if the oil price drops to $20/bbl.
2. IF silver price drops to $7-8, I will add silver to maintain my 15%weighting. If gold drops to $600, I will double my gold position(target 5% weighting).
3. IF Dow/Gold ratio drops to ~2 (currently 9.97), will sell myprecious metals and buy stocks (this is likely not going to happen in2009, probably in 2010-2011). But IF it drops to below 1.0, I willrefinance my mortgage, and use all my money to buy stocks.
4. Hedge my long positions in oil and silver with shorts in retailers and high-techs (will give financials a break this year).
5. 如果有豺狼來了,迎接它們的有獵槍. 朋友來了,有好酒.
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