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今年七月道瓊指數達到曆史高點一萬四千點，之後一路下跌將近一千四百點，等於跌了9.8%。是相當大的一次調整；而標準普爾五百指數則跌掉了今年以來全部的增長。人們不禁要問，五年的牛市是不是就這樣結束了？
CNN Money的文章回答說：分析牛市是否結束是有五個標誌的
第一，油價通常很高：經曆過70年代的股市大跌的人一定會記得高油價是股市的毒藥。1973年時，在石油輸出國組織宣布禁運之後的幾個月裏油價翻了四倍，股市立刻進入了相當嚴酷的熊市。90-91年的高爾夫灣戰爭對股市也是起了同樣的壞作用。為什麽油價上漲會起到這樣的危害作用？因為高油價可能導致經濟發生滯漲或者衰退。對於經濟來講，高油價好比嚴重的稅收，會減緩經濟的發展。高價格還會使聯邦儲備警惕“ 通貨膨脹” ，並且有可能會加息以對抗通貨膨脹。這是投資者最擔心的。到目前為止，今年油價已經長了20%，達到每桶$78.40美元。Ariel Capital的基金經理Timothy Fidler說：高漲的油價遲早會影響企業和大眾消費。
第二，債券實際回報率升高：通常來講，當美國十年債券實際回報率上升到一定程度時，股市就會下跌。從曆史上看，70年代中期，80年代早期和晚期，90年代早期以及2000年的大跌都伴隨著債券實際回報率的上升。比如，在1987年一月到十月，十年期債券實際回報率從7%升到10.2%，十月發生了股市大跌。那麽現在狀況如何？今年三月中回報率為4.5%，六月升到5.2%，八月又降到4.7%。Raymond James Financial的主要投資策劃Jeffery Saut說“如果回報率升到6%，牛氣的投資者就要卷鋪蓋回家了”。弱勢美元對債券也有很不好的影響，當美元貶值，外國投資者會拋出美元，導致美國債券價格下跌，實際回報上升。美元對歐元的比價從今年一個的1.29降到八月時的1.34，如果再進一步跌的話，投資者應該將其做為一個警告信號
第三，股市中上升的股票數量少過跌的：在2000年股市大跌之前，股市的基礎已經出現動搖，雖然股市的總指數一直上升，但是真正上升的股票隻是那麽幾隻。這段曆史給大家的教訓就是，指數上升可能是少數股票造成的，有時會掩蓋整個股市牛市已經到頂的真相。所以大家應該關注整個股市的健康狀況－有多少股票在升，有多少在跌。如果創本年度新高的股票比創新低的股票少，就是一個不好的標誌。在今年七月時創新高的股票是創新低股票的兩倍－這是一個好現象，不過本月這個情況就顛倒了。
第四，大眾消費減弱：很容易理解，當大眾減少消費時，股市－主要是由出售產品的公司組成－通常會下跌。在過去的三十年裏，每次大眾消費減少時通常伴隨著股市下滑。有意思的是，消費較少一般在股市下跌之後，所以這很難做為一個標誌。不過，大眾消費仍然是值得關注的指標。專家說，大眾消費有時能把股市中一個普通的調整變成一個熊市。本世紀以來，大眾消費狀況一直不錯。直到今年六月，零售指數降了0.9%，很多連鎖大商場的銷售都不好。如果房地產繼續走跌，消費者自然會將荷包看得緊一些。
第五，企業利潤減少：在九十年代未期的牛市。標準普爾五百中的公司的業績增長率平均為每年12%。2000年時不少公司宣布業績會減少，股市開始大跌。在這次牛市中，從2003-2006年，標準普爾五百中的公司的業績增長率平均為每年17%。但是據分析2007年這些公司的業績增長率是7%，這是非常大的變化。為什麽業績會降下來？因為生產力的增長降低，工資壓力增大，別忘了能源價格上漲了不少，利息率上升－如果利率持續上升的話，公司會減少貸款，因此而減少對企業的投資。
從以上幾個標誌來看，牛現在正受著煎熬。
5 ways to know if the bull is over
Before it keels over, a bull market typically leaves a few road signs. Here\'s what to keep an eye on - from Money Magazine.
Since Money Magazine last examined the health of the bull market (and pronounced it sound), consumer spending began slowing, several prominent buyout deals unraveled, and oh yeah - concerns about subprime mortgage loans going bad caused stocks to fall off a cliff.
After closing above 14,000 for the first time in late July, the Dow has since plunged nearly 1400 points, or 9.8 percent, close to an official correction. The S&P 500 has given up all of its gains for the year.
All this has added a certain cogency to the view that the five-year-old bull could be closer to the end of its road. So while you know better than to try to time the market - and you do, don\'t you? - now is a good moment to check that your portfolio truly matches your appetite for risk.
In the meantime, keep an eye out for five signs that often precede a sharp turn ahead.
Oil prices
Before a bear: Oil prices often surge
Happened yet? Yes
Anyone who remembers the 1970s knows that rapidly rising oil prices can be poison to stocks. The quadrupling of those prices in the months following October 1973 (due to the OPEC embargo) helped send a market that was already reeling into brutal bear territory almost immediately.
Rising energy costs just before the 1990-91 Gulf War were bad news for the market too. That\'s because when oil becomes much more expensive, one of two things generally happens: stagflation or recession.
Those higher prices act like a tax on the economy, slowing growth. And because higher prices make the Federal Reserve think inflation! the Fed typically responds by raising short-term interest rates - something the stock market likes about as much as Nicole Richie likes dessert.
Fast-forward to today: Oil prices are up 20 percent year to date, approaching the record high of $78.40 a barrel.
You have to expect that these rising oil prices will catch up to businesses and consumers, says Timothy Fidler, a portfolio manager with Ariel Capital.
Treasury yields
Before a bear: Treasury yields often run up
Happened yet? Not really
Big market pullbacks tend to take place after jumps in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. Bear markets in the mid-\'70s, early and late \'80s, early \'90s and 2000 all followed significant rises in bond yields. For example, the yield on the 10-year surged from 7 percent in January 1987 to 10.2 percent just before the October crash.
What about now? The 10-year yield rose from about 4.5 percent in mid-March to 5.2 percent in June but dropped back to around 4.7 percent in mid August.
If the yield on the 10-year went up to 6 percent, says Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist for Raymond James Financial, that could change investor psychology - and help send the bull packing.
The state of the dollar affects Treasury yields too. A weakening dollar makes foreign investors nervous about holding Treasuries; when they sell, Treasury prices fall and yields rise.
That would hit stocks, just like in 1987, says Subodh Kumar, an independent market strategist. The dollar has sagged - from $1.29 to the euro at the beginning of the year to $1.34 to the euro in mid August. If it slips further, that\'s a warning sign, Kumar says.
Number of rising stocks
Before a bear: The number of rising stocks starts to shrink
Happened yet? Has it ever
Before the market crashed in 2000, something fundamental changed. Though the overall indexes (like the Dow and the S&P 500) kept going up, those rises were being fueled by only a handful of companies, mostly Internet-related ones.
The lesson: Sizable increases in just a few stocks can mask what\'s going on in the broader market and signal that a bull is nearing a top, says Larry Haverty, a portfolio manager with Gamco Investors, an institutional investment firm. So keep an eye on market breadth - that is, how many stocks are rising compared with how many are falling.
If more stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are hitting new 52-week lows than new 52-week highs, that\'s a bad sign.
In mid-July nearly twice as many stocks were hitting new highs as new lows - a comforting sign - but by month\'s end this stat had turned downright ugly.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer spending Corporate earnings growth MORE
Consumer spending
Before a bear: Consumer spending sometimes slows
Happened yet? Starting
It stands to reason that when people stop buying stuff, the stock market - populated with companies that sell stuff - heads south. All the major dips in consumer spending over the past 30-plus years have taken place as stocks were just beginning to slide or during prolonged declines.
The tricky part: Measurable drops in consumer spending often occur after the market has already started falling - making it a less than perfect indicator.
It\'s still important to watch, though, because experts say that slumping consumer spending could help turn what otherwise might have been a mere correction into a true bear.
So far this decade, consumers have been spending away happily - until recently. Retail sales fell 0.9% in June, bad news for companies like Home Depot, Macy\'s and Sears. And if housing prices continue to drop in many parts of the country, consumers will clutch their pocketbooks still tighter.
Brian Stine, an investment strategist with Allegiant Asset Management Co., a firm that oversees about $30 billion in assets, says, It could dramatically curb spending and even employment growth. Neither would be good.
Corporate earnings growth
Before a bear: Corporate earnings growth often slows
Happened yet? Just wait for the \'07 numbers
During the bull market of the mid- to late \'90s, average earnings for the S&P 500 rose more than 12% a year. When companies began warning of slowing profit growth in 2000, stocks started to nosedive.
Now for the current bull. From 2003 to 2006, the S&P\'s annual earnings rose more than 17%, on average. But the consensus estimate of the market strategists tracked by Thomson Financial is that earnings will grow by only 7% in 2007 - a huge change.
It\'s not hard to see why. Productivity growth is down. Wage pressures are rising. And remember those soaring energy prices we just talked about? On top of all that, long-term rates in the first half of the year were sneaking up. If that trend resumes, it will discourage companies from borrowing in order to make big investments.
If liquidity should dry up, says John Fox, co-manager of the FAM Value fund, that would be a negative.
Translation: It could make this bull look like hamburger.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer
CNN Money的文章回答說：分析牛市是否結束是有五個標誌的
第一，油價通常很高：經曆過70年代的股市大跌的人一定會記得高油價是股市的毒藥。1973年時，在石油輸出國組織宣布禁運之後的幾個月裏油價翻了四倍，股市立刻進入了相當嚴酷的熊市。90-91年的高爾夫灣戰爭對股市也是起了同樣的壞作用。為什麽油價上漲會起到這樣的危害作用？因為高油價可能導致經濟發生滯漲或者衰退。對於經濟來講，高油價好比嚴重的稅收，會減緩經濟的發展。高價格還會使聯邦儲備警惕“ 通貨膨脹” ，並且有可能會加息以對抗通貨膨脹。這是投資者最擔心的。到目前為止，今年油價已經長了20%，達到每桶$78.40美元。Ariel Capital的基金經理Timothy Fidler說：高漲的油價遲早會影響企業和大眾消費。
第二，債券實際回報率升高：通常來講，當美國十年債券實際回報率上升到一定程度時，股市就會下跌。從曆史上看，70年代中期，80年代早期和晚期，90年代早期以及2000年的大跌都伴隨著債券實際回報率的上升。比如，在1987年一月到十月，十年期債券實際回報率從7%升到10.2%，十月發生了股市大跌。那麽現在狀況如何？今年三月中回報率為4.5%，六月升到5.2%，八月又降到4.7%。Raymond James Financial的主要投資策劃Jeffery Saut說“如果回報率升到6%，牛氣的投資者就要卷鋪蓋回家了”。弱勢美元對債券也有很不好的影響，當美元貶值，外國投資者會拋出美元，導致美國債券價格下跌，實際回報上升。美元對歐元的比價從今年一個的1.29降到八月時的1.34，如果再進一步跌的話，投資者應該將其做為一個警告信號
第三，股市中上升的股票數量少過跌的：在2000年股市大跌之前，股市的基礎已經出現動搖，雖然股市的總指數一直上升，但是真正上升的股票隻是那麽幾隻。這段曆史給大家的教訓就是，指數上升可能是少數股票造成的，有時會掩蓋整個股市牛市已經到頂的真相。所以大家應該關注整個股市的健康狀況－有多少股票在升，有多少在跌。如果創本年度新高的股票比創新低的股票少，就是一個不好的標誌。在今年七月時創新高的股票是創新低股票的兩倍－這是一個好現象，不過本月這個情況就顛倒了。
第四，大眾消費減弱：很容易理解，當大眾減少消費時，股市－主要是由出售產品的公司組成－通常會下跌。在過去的三十年裏，每次大眾消費減少時通常伴隨著股市下滑。有意思的是，消費較少一般在股市下跌之後，所以這很難做為一個標誌。不過，大眾消費仍然是值得關注的指標。專家說，大眾消費有時能把股市中一個普通的調整變成一個熊市。本世紀以來，大眾消費狀況一直不錯。直到今年六月，零售指數降了0.9%，很多連鎖大商場的銷售都不好。如果房地產繼續走跌，消費者自然會將荷包看得緊一些。
第五，企業利潤減少：在九十年代未期的牛市。標準普爾五百中的公司的業績增長率平均為每年12%。2000年時不少公司宣布業績會減少，股市開始大跌。在這次牛市中，從2003-2006年，標準普爾五百中的公司的業績增長率平均為每年17%。但是據分析2007年這些公司的業績增長率是7%，這是非常大的變化。為什麽業績會降下來？因為生產力的增長降低，工資壓力增大，別忘了能源價格上漲了不少，利息率上升－如果利率持續上升的話，公司會減少貸款，因此而減少對企業的投資。
從以上幾個標誌來看，牛現在正受著煎熬。
5 ways to know if the bull is over
Before it keels over, a bull market typically leaves a few road signs. Here\'s what to keep an eye on - from Money Magazine.
Since Money Magazine last examined the health of the bull market (and pronounced it sound), consumer spending began slowing, several prominent buyout deals unraveled, and oh yeah - concerns about subprime mortgage loans going bad caused stocks to fall off a cliff.
After closing above 14,000 for the first time in late July, the Dow has since plunged nearly 1400 points, or 9.8 percent, close to an official correction. The S&P 500 has given up all of its gains for the year.
All this has added a certain cogency to the view that the five-year-old bull could be closer to the end of its road. So while you know better than to try to time the market - and you do, don\'t you? - now is a good moment to check that your portfolio truly matches your appetite for risk.
In the meantime, keep an eye out for five signs that often precede a sharp turn ahead.
Oil prices
Before a bear: Oil prices often surge
Happened yet? Yes
Anyone who remembers the 1970s knows that rapidly rising oil prices can be poison to stocks. The quadrupling of those prices in the months following October 1973 (due to the OPEC embargo) helped send a market that was already reeling into brutal bear territory almost immediately.
Rising energy costs just before the 1990-91 Gulf War were bad news for the market too. That\'s because when oil becomes much more expensive, one of two things generally happens: stagflation or recession.
Those higher prices act like a tax on the economy, slowing growth. And because higher prices make the Federal Reserve think inflation! the Fed typically responds by raising short-term interest rates - something the stock market likes about as much as Nicole Richie likes dessert.
Fast-forward to today: Oil prices are up 20 percent year to date, approaching the record high of $78.40 a barrel.
You have to expect that these rising oil prices will catch up to businesses and consumers, says Timothy Fidler, a portfolio manager with Ariel Capital.
Treasury yields
Before a bear: Treasury yields often run up
Happened yet? Not really
Big market pullbacks tend to take place after jumps in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note. Bear markets in the mid-\'70s, early and late \'80s, early \'90s and 2000 all followed significant rises in bond yields. For example, the yield on the 10-year surged from 7 percent in January 1987 to 10.2 percent just before the October crash.
What about now? The 10-year yield rose from about 4.5 percent in mid-March to 5.2 percent in June but dropped back to around 4.7 percent in mid August.
If the yield on the 10-year went up to 6 percent, says Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist for Raymond James Financial, that could change investor psychology - and help send the bull packing.
The state of the dollar affects Treasury yields too. A weakening dollar makes foreign investors nervous about holding Treasuries; when they sell, Treasury prices fall and yields rise.
That would hit stocks, just like in 1987, says Subodh Kumar, an independent market strategist. The dollar has sagged - from $1.29 to the euro at the beginning of the year to $1.34 to the euro in mid August. If it slips further, that\'s a warning sign, Kumar says.
Number of rising stocks
Before a bear: The number of rising stocks starts to shrink
Happened yet? Has it ever
Before the market crashed in 2000, something fundamental changed. Though the overall indexes (like the Dow and the S&P 500) kept going up, those rises were being fueled by only a handful of companies, mostly Internet-related ones.
The lesson: Sizable increases in just a few stocks can mask what\'s going on in the broader market and signal that a bull is nearing a top, says Larry Haverty, a portfolio manager with Gamco Investors, an institutional investment firm. So keep an eye on market breadth - that is, how many stocks are rising compared with how many are falling.
If more stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are hitting new 52-week lows than new 52-week highs, that\'s a bad sign.
In mid-July nearly twice as many stocks were hitting new highs as new lows - a comforting sign - but by month\'s end this stat had turned downright ugly.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer spending Corporate earnings growth MORE
Consumer spending
Before a bear: Consumer spending sometimes slows
Happened yet? Starting
It stands to reason that when people stop buying stuff, the stock market - populated with companies that sell stuff - heads south. All the major dips in consumer spending over the past 30-plus years have taken place as stocks were just beginning to slide or during prolonged declines.
The tricky part: Measurable drops in consumer spending often occur after the market has already started falling - making it a less than perfect indicator.
It\'s still important to watch, though, because experts say that slumping consumer spending could help turn what otherwise might have been a mere correction into a true bear.
So far this decade, consumers have been spending away happily - until recently. Retail sales fell 0.9% in June, bad news for companies like Home Depot, Macy\'s and Sears. And if housing prices continue to drop in many parts of the country, consumers will clutch their pocketbooks still tighter.
Brian Stine, an investment strategist with Allegiant Asset Management Co., a firm that oversees about $30 billion in assets, says, It could dramatically curb spending and even employment growth. Neither would be good.
Corporate earnings growth
Before a bear: Corporate earnings growth often slows
Happened yet? Just wait for the \'07 numbers
During the bull market of the mid- to late \'90s, average earnings for the S&P 500 rose more than 12% a year. When companies began warning of slowing profit growth in 2000, stocks started to nosedive.
Now for the current bull. From 2003 to 2006, the S&P\'s annual earnings rose more than 17%, on average. But the consensus estimate of the market strategists tracked by Thomson Financial is that earnings will grow by only 7% in 2007 - a huge change.
It\'s not hard to see why. Productivity growth is down. Wage pressures are rising. And remember those soaring energy prices we just talked about? On top of all that, long-term rates in the first half of the year were sneaking up. If that trend resumes, it will discourage companies from borrowing in order to make big investments.
If liquidity should dry up, says John Fox, co-manager of the FAM Value fund, that would be a negative.
Translation: It could make this bull look like hamburger.
MORE Outlook Oil prices Treasury yields Number of rising stocks Consumer
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