反彈就此結束, 準備麵對熊市

反彈就此結束, 準備麵對熊市

The fundamentals right now are leading a BEAR MARKET.

國際市場已初現疲憊的經濟.

Aussie starts to show commodity weak demand, a sigh slow growth in economy. UK economy grew 0.5% in 3 months to March that is below trend and its house market show weak sign. Over all Euro market is still strong but the weak employment rate show something might not be that good in its economy. Facing pressure from inflation, China makes greater change of rate in curbing raid investment growth and the raising reserve requirement ratio becomes effective April 16 that will curb its stock market also. Although Japan is getting recovery, the economy numbers are still weak.

低於2% 的經濟成長率不足以導致股市持續上升. 房市破裂將導致財經麵等惡化, 高通貨膨脹將導致低的消費. 房市見底仍然是一個傳說中的神話.

US economic growth is sluggish and forecasts are coming down, below 2% gain this year isn’t enough for a continue market rally. After house market bubble burst, mortgage market, interest market will be in trouble. Although High inflation means strong economic demands, it also leads to a definitely slow consumer spending.

Don’t think US real estate market bottom, we are far away from that, according to the house market cycle, it is very likely real estate will be a drag on US economy through the end of 2008. The worse will spill over US banks, which might get more trouble next year.

公司收益下降, 利潤會下調, 前景看壞.

Earnings growth expectations are dropping because of the worsening economic conditions. Earnings growth could go negative in the third quarter if margin pressures build due to rising wage costs. The earnings growth outlook is moving the wrong direction.

為堅挺美元, 近期減息已不可能, 即使減息, 也不能阻止經濟變壞的狀況.

For US $ reason, which is much much more important than US stock market, interest rates aren\'t going to come to the rescue of the stock market. Expectations of rate cuts this year are based more on hope than facts. Inflation remains at levels the Fed states are unacceptable, and there is no indication that inflationary pressures are easing. And even if a lower interest rate can’t save the market at current condition, why? Obviously, it isn’t too late, it is from the worse economy side.

油價高昂不下對經濟隻能是雪上加霜.

Oil price now is a big concern; in fact, it is already a trouble for the market. Given the high oil price and oil peak evidence, the odds of oil playing a role in either triggering or exacerbating a worldwide recession before the end of 2008 are very high. The skyrocketing commodity market will also add more pressure to international economy, and now even the worst is coming: food price is soar more.

消費者消費大打折扣, 信用危機不是危言聳聽.

Consumer spending is definitely slow also now; especially consumer will get into credit debt problem. US ridiculous debt will leads to a debt bubble.

國際遊資將繼續湧進美國嗎? 答案是否定的

The US $ keeps dip and dip more, that is evidence for the interest to US money. If $ loses more ground, US equity market will get a hit for sure. TIC data shows the less interest on US assets. A crash dollar will lead to a sharply, deeply recession. Now money is flowing into the safe place but not US.

伊朗依然是一個重大變數.

Iran war might not happen nowadays but might be someday.

這是熊市的腳印.

Here is the track of bear paw.
preventing US $ crash --> Fed save $ --> raise or stay IR --> house bubble worse -->  sub-prime burst more --> mortgage burst --> financial sector, bank burst --> high oil price -->  consumer spending slow -->  credit card debt burst --> slow economy growth --> corporation earning slow --> US stock market down ( plus uncertainty: Iran war)


我的重要結論: SP 500 將先下跌到 1265 點附近. 道瓊先到 11085 附近. 納斯達克 先到2135 點附近, 如果下跌不止, SP 500 將可能下跌到 1150. 熊市已別無選擇, 至於能持續多久, 要看FED的政策變化.



來源: 華爾街大混混 於 07-04-09 10:57:18 [檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [轉至博客] [給我悄悄話]