楓下客
苦心人,天不負，臥薪嚐膽，三千越甲可吞吳。要不是我自己為自己建立紀念碑，這紀念碑，它從何而來？
正文
• 你看圖看多了，能發覺一些非傳統的東西。 -simplebutbetter- ♂   (0 bytes) (13 reads) 7/17/10 |
 | • 圖看多了，你有時能感覺到MM的玩法 -nullll- ♂  (0 bytes) (12 reads) 7/17/10 |
| • 這種玩法要能反映人的情緒心理，才是有用的。 -simplebutbetter- ♂ (0 bytes) (6 reads) 7/17/10 |
| • 如果你一直玩同幾隻股， 你能感覺到MM的玩法 -nullll- ♂ (0 bytes) (9 reads) 7/17/10 |
有一種勝利叫撤退
來源: nullll 於 10-01-14 19:30:13
投資為什麽？相信沒有人會說，是為了賠錢。但事實上，大多數投資者卻並不賺錢，即便是這波賺了錢，下一輪卻要賠回去。這是讓很多投資者，尤其是中小投資者鬱悶的事情。
不知進退難賺錢
不賺錢的原因有很多，但不知進退，是其中最主要的原因之一。對個人投資者來說，隻有選擇合適的退出時機，或者持有理性的退出策略，才會最大限度地保護自己的利益。
訓練有素的戰將知道什麽時候撤退，老練的投資客知道什麽時候離場。一般情況下，當事態超出自己控製範圍或者感覺不對，就要馬上停下來，站出來。等到想清楚，再進去也不遲。比如2007～2008年度，在大盤及絕大多數股票連續破位之際，能夠立馬出來，冷靜一下的投資者，會躲過許多災難。牆倒眾人推，雖然隻是俗話，但在股市和樓市中卻經常有效。而“君子不立於危牆之下”，更是孟子留下的人生真諦和投資真諦。
同樣的，如果投資者連續幾隻股票都選得離譜，那就說明要麽是自己的感覺不對了，要麽就是大盤不對了，這個時候出來，多半是有益無害的。尤其是如果自己選股頻頻失利，往往說明自己的思路出了問題，如果執著下去，就很可能不可收拾，即便不會損失很大，也會錯過許多。
保持距離，才能看清方向。對於大盤是這樣，對於投資者選股和投資策略來說，也是如此。
大盤上漲的過程中，也存在著離場或減倉的問題。有的時候，盡管指數在繼續攀升，但你卻明顯覺得市場有些不對勁了，比如權重股或權重板塊在硬生生地拉著大盤漲，可多數股票不跟漲，甚至開始下跌，這說明投資者對走勢出現較大分歧，至少是不那麽齊心了。換句話說，大家都開始意識到風險，而一些人的故事也暫時講得差不多，多數“聽眾”也都知道故事講得有點離譜，也不再好忽悠了。在這種情況下，如果沒有強大的外力刺激，大盤形勢就真的很難說了。
盡管這些信號並不總是正確的，但在情況不明的時候，保守點總是沒錯。而根據著名的“墨菲定律”：事情如果有變壞的可能，不管這種可能性有多小，它總會發生。股市及其他許多投資都時常會印證“墨菲定律”，充滿戲劇性，但也透露出殘酷的本色。
對主力來說，當大盤或個股漲到頭時，或者自己的目標基本達到時，他們的籌碼一般會留給以下幾種人：菜鳥(輸在經驗上，不知進退)、貪最後幾個點的人(輸在貪心和完美主義)、空翻多的人(輸在別扭上，因為前麵踏空了，剛進來還沒什麽收獲，當然不情願離場。如果被套了，就更不甘心止損了)。而懂得適時離場的人，就很難成為主力的獵物。
有一種勝利叫撤退
“有一種勝利叫撤退”。這句話用在投資上，戰爭中，以及外交政策上，都別有深意。
在這方麵，布什父子可謂是很好的教材。老布什在海灣戰爭後選擇退出伊拉克，從而避免陷入伊拉克的泥潭。相反，小布什卻自信能搞定伊拉克的一切，在推翻薩達姆政權後依然戀戰，甚至還想以此為踏板創建“新中東”，結果是留下了騎虎難下的伊拉克殘局，讓如今的奧巴馬政府也是左右為難。
撤退，其實還與戰略目標有關。在海灣戰爭中，老布什的目的就是將伊拉克軍隊趕出科威特，並且給薩達姆一個教訓。由於目標設定得比較合理，也容易達成，所以能很輕鬆退出。到了伊拉克戰爭，小布什的目的就顯得過於複雜和“高遠”了，不但要推翻薩達姆，還想控製伊拉克油田，甚至於還想以此作為中東民主化甚至全球美國化的樣本和踏板，之後的局麵失控就可想而知了。
同樣的，在投資中，對於每一個階段的投資，投資者也應該有個大致的目標設定，不能過低也不能過高，適中最好。換句話說，就是別想著成為市場中最賺錢的人，也別想著每次都能賺大錢。其實隻要經常能賺錢，並且能躲過比較大的震蕩，從長遠角度看，其收益就足夠令人滿意了。
市場中，笑到最後的人，總是那些收獲穩定複利的人，而不是那些暴利的追逐者。心比天高，命比紙薄，說的往往就是那些滿腦子隻有暴利的人
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Most Money Is Made By Waiting, Not Trading
2006-09-17 05:58:12
Investor's Business Daily
Most Money Is Made By Waiting, Not Trading
Thursday September 14, 7:00 pm ET
Trang Ho
A common mistake for stock market investors is overtrading. Learning to sit and wait is one of the biggest challenges for many.
Jesse Livermore, one of the world's greatest investors, said: "It is never your thinking that makes big money. It's the sitting."
Stocks stair-step their way higher by breaking out of basing patterns, running up and then forming new bases from which they break out. Savvy investors learn how to hang on to leading stocks that go through normal pullbacks rather than sell them.
Beginning investors are often shaken out of winning stocks because they buy incorrectly. You can avoid that by buying a stock within 5% of its buy point in a sound base. Studies of past winners show that stocks breaking out of sound bases on heavy volume rarely retreat more than 8% from the proper buy point.
So buying right will let you sit longer with winners.
They don't all work, of course. So you should always sell if a stock falls 8% below your buy point. That saves your capital for stocks that do work.
After a substantial run-up, a correction of 8% to 12% from a peak is considered normal. If you buy a stock on a breakout and it goes up 20%, don't sell just because it pulls back from its high. Watch to see if it can resume its run or carve out a new base.
Just be careful not to let such gains turn into losses by holding on as a stock falls back below the original buy point.
And keep an eye out for stocks with extra oomph. One that shoots up 20% or more in only one to four weeks should be held for at least eight weeks unless it falls all the way back near your buy point.
Stocks that show this kind of strength often double or triple in short order. But they often correct sharply, shaking out those who don't follow the eight-week rule.
A stock's daily price and volume action compared with the major stock indexes can help in deciding whether to sell. One that goes sideways or falls as the market advances is weak.
You should hold on to CAN SLIM leaders unless they trigger key selling rules laid out in William O'Neil's book "How to Make Money in Stocks." Sell signals include stocks breaking down through their moving averages on heavy volume, showing signs of heavy distribution or entering a climax run.
University of Phoenix Online, which is no longer traded, formed a base-on-base pattern two years after its IPO.
The bases prior to these were wide and lose and would have bucked off investors following the 8% loss rule.
By November 2002 the stock had formed a six-month, cup-with-handle base with a 34.20 buy point (point 1). It ran up 17% and formed another base.
The second base corrected 22% (point 2 )and bottomed at an intraday low of 32.70. Although the correction from its peak of 40 was rather deep, it fell only 5% from the 34.20 buy point of the first base. So you could have held on without sitting on a big loss.
The stock resumed its run and broke past the 40.10 buy point of the second base.
University of Phoenix peaked 13 months later at 94. It had advanced 134% from the 40.10 buy point and 175% from the 34.20 buy point.
Along the way, the stock pulled back to or below its 10-week moving average many times (point 3 )and offered additional chances to buy. But it never fell below the buy points.
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