UNG

這麽多人玩火UNG,那一定要明白UNG是如何操作的.
		來源: TDYD 於 09-07-03 20:24:12

核心: 因為其期貨價格問題,經濟好轉前,UNG沒底,將類似FAS/FAZ隨時間貶值.

UNG基金的操作原則是買FRONT MONTH(最近期當前月)期貨合同並持有到結束,然後轉買新的當前月合同.

目前及過去一年,期貨合同從成為FRONT　MONTH到當最近期合同結束變成SPOT(即時HOUSTON現貨價)時,大約每個月損失4-5%.這是很要命的!類似FAS/FAZ.就是說哪怕天然氣市場現貨價格不動,ＵＮＧ也要每個月賠５％．這種價格模式在經濟沒有明顯好轉之前是不會變的.所以買UNG就是賭經濟會馬上好轉.但這目前是不可能的.UNG能掉到多少誰也不知道,但它理論上可以是可以一直跌下去的,哪怕其對應的天然氣價格並沒跌.因為買UNG並不等同於持有天然氣!兩碼事.丟的錢你也可以理解成倉儲費,價格不升,除去倉儲可不就賠了.

天然氣市場價格見下:
http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/NG.html
Aug 09 3.615
Sep 09 3.757
Oct 09 3.996
Nov 09 4.692
Dec 09 5.392
Jan 10 5.707

"[UNG] lost 12% of its value during the summer of 2007 even though natural gas spot prices gained 1% over the same time period. Why the disparity? This fund mostly invests in near-month futures contracts. As each month draws to a close, the fund rolls over to the next month's contract, and so forth. When the prices of those out-month contracts exceed the price of the near-month contract (known as a state of "contango"), the fund loses money each time it rolls futures. That explains why this fund has oftentimes declined in value even as natural gas prices rose, as the natural gas futures market was in contango at that time."
Contango slowly rots away the value of your initial investment over time as one month rolls to the next. The winners in this situation are traders with access to both paper and physical commodities, not UNG holders