正文
Today is a bloody, shitty, painful and disastrous day for me. I lost tremendously in the FX market. Everything has been gone and over, although I'm still reluctant to recognize the unfortunate aftermath. What just happened? I tried to figure out the path but it appears so obscure and becomes even more...
USD has been hit since early last week, primarily due to long-term worry or expectations that Euro-zone and Japanese economies are getting stronger and countries like China may diversify USD into other currencies as a portion of their trillion-dollar foreign reserves. Of course, all the info are USD-negative. However, considering the dollar high pushed by excessive speculation weeks earlier, certain reversals are quite reasonable. But those reversals theoretically shouldn't be overwhelming, in light of the primarily healthy fundamentals of U.S. economy.
However, see what happened in the real: the market has been continually hammering down USD in the past two weeks, forming a clear downturn trendline which is extremely unusual. Up to early this week, USD has reached the lowest against other major currencies over the past 2-3 years. So, should that be an inviting entry point? I believe the answer is YES! Indeed, I've been patiently waiting for the bottoms in almost two weeks and didn't move at all. I started to buy dollar (or short other currencies) slowly this week and accumulated positions at historical USD lows. By last Wednesday, I felt the speculation against dollar is near to the end and bet large amounts on dollar rebound. And as expected, dollar did come back nicely yesterday and I had decent unrealized gains in my account. I even hesitated: should I close the positions and catch the birds in hand? Finally, my judgment and the market concensus convinced me that: I should hold the positions and wait for today's bigger dollar reversal.
Surprisingly, this morning the market overreacted to a few unfavorable U.S. economic news and the dollar plummeted to another historical low not seen in the recent years! I was hit most by cable, which is like flying against dollar. I made all efforts to maintain my positions, in hoping of breakeven later on by giving out a smaller portion of loss. But very unfortunate, the cable seems like being added four engines and can't stop. Finally, all my margins were used up and I have to cut off all positions. I, as a fighter, stood in the battlefield till last minute, but retreated almost dead. It's bloody, cruel and unbelievable...
What did I wrong? I'm wrong because I over-estimated the market, I thought the market should be efficient enough to correct imbalances. I'm wrong because I under-estimated the speculators, I thought their greed against dollar can't last long. I'm wrong because I'm over-confident about myself, I thought my patience with timing of entry and cautious optimism about dollar should be rewarded. I'm completely wrong!!!
In one word, I'm lost because I failed to discern how long the market irrationality can stay. I'm out of the market because I'm not irrational enough. Is that insane?!
USD has been hit since early last week, primarily due to long-term worry or expectations that Euro-zone and Japanese economies are getting stronger and countries like China may diversify USD into other currencies as a portion of their trillion-dollar foreign reserves. Of course, all the info are USD-negative. However, considering the dollar high pushed by excessive speculation weeks earlier, certain reversals are quite reasonable. But those reversals theoretically shouldn't be overwhelming, in light of the primarily healthy fundamentals of U.S. economy.
However, see what happened in the real: the market has been continually hammering down USD in the past two weeks, forming a clear downturn trendline which is extremely unusual. Up to early this week, USD has reached the lowest against other major currencies over the past 2-3 years. So, should that be an inviting entry point? I believe the answer is YES! Indeed, I've been patiently waiting for the bottoms in almost two weeks and didn't move at all. I started to buy dollar (or short other currencies) slowly this week and accumulated positions at historical USD lows. By last Wednesday, I felt the speculation against dollar is near to the end and bet large amounts on dollar rebound. And as expected, dollar did come back nicely yesterday and I had decent unrealized gains in my account. I even hesitated: should I close the positions and catch the birds in hand? Finally, my judgment and the market concensus convinced me that: I should hold the positions and wait for today's bigger dollar reversal.
Surprisingly, this morning the market overreacted to a few unfavorable U.S. economic news and the dollar plummeted to another historical low not seen in the recent years! I was hit most by cable, which is like flying against dollar. I made all efforts to maintain my positions, in hoping of breakeven later on by giving out a smaller portion of loss. But very unfortunate, the cable seems like being added four engines and can't stop. Finally, all my margins were used up and I have to cut off all positions. I, as a fighter, stood in the battlefield till last minute, but retreated almost dead. It's bloody, cruel and unbelievable...
What did I wrong? I'm wrong because I over-estimated the market, I thought the market should be efficient enough to correct imbalances. I'm wrong because I under-estimated the speculators, I thought their greed against dollar can't last long. I'm wrong because I'm over-confident about myself, I thought my patience with timing of entry and cautious optimism about dollar should be rewarded. I'm completely wrong!!!
In one word, I'm lost because I failed to discern how long the market irrationality can stay. I'm out of the market because I'm not irrational enough. Is that insane?!
dont jump in too soon. Get knowledge first.
trade in cash in FX is more safe than professional trading with humble beginning.
you need to buy options to hedge your position if u want to get in professional trading.
You are doing professional trading but in fact you are not FX professional.
What is your major? lot of questions.
Even you did all, you still have plenty of chance to lose all in your trading life.
I dont feel any sorry to loser. 但你一定會成為我的好朋友的
I am sorry to read your story (assuming it was real)... You may want to take some time off to clear your mind... Once you calm down, you probably want to review what happened, how it all happened, and why happended in this way... Afterwards, re-group and re-gain your strength, then get ready to move forward again...
It's painful to go through days like this, but the worse would be not to learn most of the important lessons from it... Just remember this, very few great investors had not been wiped out completely once or twice in their respective investing experience...
Hopefully, you will rise again from the ash as a phoenix...
Life is both Simple and Grand! Happy Trading!!!
LK
以後我會多來學習您的炒匯知識和經驗。
謝謝分享。