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Why this time is different from internet bubble...

(2007-11-26 20:07:55) 下一個
The 2000 bubble didn\'t have much balance sheet problem -- just the speculative equity value.

Let\'s review the basic accounting formula:

Equity = Asset - Liability

All these financial firms have balance (liability and asset) in trillions, while equity is relatively tiny (1/10 of trillions).

Now new items are being triggered and put on the balance sheet (like C), and the liability is increasing while asset values are falling (as mark-to-market), equity value (meaning -- the investor\'s value) can be crashed to 0 easily as the difference of two big numbers -- just look at ETFC.

Equity value (stock market) is not the biggest concern (psychological only), credit liquidity is a more serious problem.

Balance sheet is scary stuff. Those who think they have seen the worst in internet bubble need to think again -- SUNW can drop to 1/100 of its peak value and still survive, while Enron disappeared in a few days just because of exploding balance sheet (fraud was discovered later).
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