[LDK price targe] the \'normal\' estimation

from CFO's interview with Dow Jones yesterday, LDK's 2008 and 2009 sales are all booked out now, and growth is very much 100% for the next 2 years,

company's Q3 forecast is 0.37, Q4 0.41, with reasonable upside,

for comparison, Q3: TSL: 0.29, STP: 0.32, JASO: 0.47,

STP obviously has a very big premium, but let's take TSL as the benchmark, if the "trust" discount is to be removed with a clean audit, which the market is increasing priced in, we should see TSL price 52*125% = 65 very soon.

so, short term 65,
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this is not considering the growth rate, which is in LDK's favor,

this is also not considering the fact that silicon cost decline after 2009, but since LDK will start from producing Polysillicon themselves instead of buying from anyone else, and with the scale one of the biggest in the world, it's fair to say that LDK will remain in the game and remain a dominant play, of course, if they pull off the expansion project, which, as of now, I don't see any sign that would prevent that from becoming a reality,

mid term, which is somewhere early next year, when the "inventory gate" become a more distant memory, and more report that expansion projects are making solid progress, and rev/earning numbers keep up, the sentiment will easily drive it to over 100,

that is, Q1 2008, price 100,

which, if you think about, if SOLF is now doubling the previous high of 15, STP is doubling previous high of 40, CSIQ JASO YGE all making or made recent highs, why not LDK? Are LDK's numbers, rev, earning, margin, any worse?

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