正文
1, Fed: rate cut and liquidity input (discount window, repo etc)
2, Treasury: see today's news, "Teaser Freezer" which will postpone the massive Teaser rate reset that's scheduled early next year,
(http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071130/subprime_bush.html)
3, US congress, state and local gov't, all kinds of incentives to avoid a "run on consumers",
4, Banks, HSBC has proven that they can manage by themselves,
5, investors, a lot of ABX credit default swaps were priced at 10+ on dollar, essentially reduced to a call option. I had a chance to talk with one of my friends who is on "the" mortgage desk that short the CDS like crazy (there is one one of such...), and he said, if he had money, he would just buy... he said everyone in mortgage trading knows the price doesn't reflect value but no one was buying, because everyone was thinking there would be a big blow up and a huge fire sale afterwards... Chance of that are getting more and more remote by days, so my guess is that the tide can turn any day (if not today already).
6, foreign capital. Arabian money _and_ Chinese money. Rumor says that China Sovereign Fund entrusted a few big boys on Wall St and they are 1/3 way building their positions and down 7 or 8% already, there was a debate early this week whether to go on or stop. My guess is by now they are going on.
7, particularly oil money. Obviously a win-win. Arabians traded their overpriced half asset for depressed US soft asset. US got Arabians into the same bed. Everyone is aligned to "Save the Private Loan".
8, EU central banks would be privately happy to see their currency stay at a managed high level so that they can enjoy their own "empirical cycle", but not too high with a terrible consequence of losing economic competitiveness and become the next US... so they will be supportive
----------------------------
so, with all the most powerful forces of the whole world together, the battle regarding if there would be a catastrophic disaster is now over... pain yes, end of world, no.
FNM's chart can't be more clear today.
----------------------------
"Save the Private Loan"!
2, Treasury: see today's news, "Teaser Freezer" which will postpone the massive Teaser rate reset that's scheduled early next year,
(http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071130/subprime_bush.html)
3, US congress, state and local gov't, all kinds of incentives to avoid a "run on consumers",
4, Banks, HSBC has proven that they can manage by themselves,
5, investors, a lot of ABX credit default swaps were priced at 10+ on dollar, essentially reduced to a call option. I had a chance to talk with one of my friends who is on "the" mortgage desk that short the CDS like crazy (there is one one of such...), and he said, if he had money, he would just buy... he said everyone in mortgage trading knows the price doesn't reflect value but no one was buying, because everyone was thinking there would be a big blow up and a huge fire sale afterwards... Chance of that are getting more and more remote by days, so my guess is that the tide can turn any day (if not today already).
6, foreign capital. Arabian money _and_ Chinese money. Rumor says that China Sovereign Fund entrusted a few big boys on Wall St and they are 1/3 way building their positions and down 7 or 8% already, there was a debate early this week whether to go on or stop. My guess is by now they are going on.
7, particularly oil money. Obviously a win-win. Arabians traded their overpriced half asset for depressed US soft asset. US got Arabians into the same bed. Everyone is aligned to "Save the Private Loan".
8, EU central banks would be privately happy to see their currency stay at a managed high level so that they can enjoy their own "empirical cycle", but not too high with a terrible consequence of losing economic competitiveness and become the next US... so they will be supportive
----------------------------
so, with all the most powerful forces of the whole world together, the battle regarding if there would be a catastrophic disaster is now over... pain yes, end of world, no.
FNM's chart can't be more clear today.
----------------------------
"Save the Private Loan"!
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