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Great China Leap (3), The pushing hands

(2006-12-29 14:44:35) 下一個
What's the cause of China rising?


1, The greatest invisible power shift

US used to be the gatekeeper for most of the human knowledge. After 2000, with internet and then Google, the greatest amount of knowledge transfer in history occurred
while most of people are fixed by the headlines after "9.11".

Many walls, many lines, many boundaries, that didn't fall to bombs through all human history, crumbled to the little net of fiber optics, to the power of ration, knowledge, wisdom, and inspirations that those fiber optics bring in,

Great nations always stand on the shoulders of each other. China and Egypt invented paper, but more complex scientific knowledge didn't really flow across the boundary of a mere human head until German invented the modern printing machine.

China is the apparently the biggest beneficiary.

2, WTO break through

we all know knowledge itself is not going create an economy boom.
There are other enabling factors that must be ready, particularly capital and market.

Fortunately, at the end of 2001, China joined the WTO.

Few people now seem to remember what a headache every year it was for China to renew the "most favorable nation" status with US. Every April China has to send an envoy to Washington DC, begging with gifts as hands, buying airplanes etc.

Pre and post WTO, day and light difference. With a full WTO membership, China instantly became the run-away winner of capital flow destination in the new global free-trade environment. Annual FDI to China quick went to over $50B, overtaking that to US, and stayed there to today.

More than just capital, all the technology, both equipment and knowledge, and management, both technical and modern supply chain know-hows, investment,
marketing etc were poured over. Particularly, on the manufacturing side, except for the most advanced fields such as airplane, China acquired almost all the accumulated human knowledge on "how-to" without paying much of a fee at all.

3, Starting from the top,

I have wrote that I believe Premie Zhu should take the most credit for making the decision to push for WTO at any cost. Whatever China said it'd give up, is far exceeded by what it gained. WTO is the second most important political decisions that had ever been made after Mao's era, only after Deng's decision to "open up", to join the world community.

To Jiang's credit, his quintessential act of "counting money, making no noise" worked marvelously for China, putting and keeping China on the track. Now Hu and Wen's new social re-engineering is trying to address the secondary problems such as distribution.
China is fortunately to have the longest run of politically stable periods.

All 3 generations of the leaders are not the typical king type... they are wise enough, brave enough, and daring enough to give up the total power with peace. It's probably the first time in Chinese history.

4, it took the whole village

A few weeks ago someone asking who should have the biggest credit for the China
rising. Many answers of course, my own entry was the labor girls who worked in
the toy and textile factories. The reason is that they dig the "first gold nuggets" for China.

Another modern marvle is the great infrastructure building all over China. Shanghai invented a way to modernize its cityscape, and the model got copied to all over the country. ZheJiang people find they can conquer the world by focusing on small things, ShenZhen has HongKong commerce connections, DongGuan and Yangzi Delta embraced Taiwan, ShanDong and Northeast with Japan and Korea. There have been waves and waves of industry consolidation and upgrade, from TCL to Haier to SanYi Heavy Industry… the list on and on,

Indeed, everywhere, and everybody.

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