牛經滄海投資感悟生活點滴
吾言吾所思，君聞君所願。【聲明】不作投資建議。
博文
(2008-09-21 07:07:52)
牛經滄海9/21/2008自稱蠢女人者問東方之珠三期會否跌倒零，滄海試答之。本產品將募集而來的人民幣資金轉換成美元投資於開放式基金(包括股票型基金和債券型基金)和現金類資產。1.投資組合最多可保留不超過10%的人民幣資金應對日常贖回需要，其他資金均轉換為美元進行投資。人民幣投資範圍包括但不限於存放於境內托管人的銀行存款。滄海:這部分基本安全。2.美元投資[閱讀全文]
(2008-09-20 06:58:49)
牛經滄海
9/20/2008
華爾街五大投行，個個百年老店，久經危機洗禮，卻被一手自創的金融衍生產品泡沫擊倒，真是造化弄人。
巧的是，本人在最先倒下的全美第五大投資銀行貝爾斯登任職，而太太就在全美第四大投資銀行雷曼兄弟。前者擁有4000億美元的資產，雇用18000員工，後者則擁有6000億美元的資產，雇用28000員工。投行的員工可不是商行的出納員。
金融衍生產品[閱讀全文]
(2008-09-17 12:03:28)
ItsatisfiesmostofbottomdetectioncriteriaincludingtheVIXandQQVmetrics(pleasecheckmyoldpostingsin熊火燒不盡春風吹又生fordetailsifyouarecurious).
Mostimportantly,mypropitiatoryrulenumber7wasmet:
7.Nofundleftwhenarealbottomshowsup.
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(2008-08-27 11:21:56)
Bothforshorttermflipandmid-termswingtrade.
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(2008-08-01 11:06:27)
MSwrotedownandcutbackaggressivelylastyear.Thosepreventivemeasurespayoffnow.ThiscontraststoLEH,whichjuststartedbigwrite-downinitslastQtrlyreport.
MSwillsolidifyitsleaderposition(stillbehindGSthough)inthisroundoffinancialdebacles.
BestpositionedfinancialfirmsarestillWFC(bank),GS(Brokerage),JPM(financailsupermarket),BLK(assetmgmt),SCHW(discountretail).Watchtheleaderscloselytoidentifytrend.Once...[閱讀全文]
BestpositionedfinancialfirmsarestillWFC(bank),GS(Brokerage),JPM(financailsupermarket),BLK(assetmgmt),SCHW(discountretail).Watchtheleaderscloselytoidentifytrend.Once...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-31 14:34:46)
PayattentiontothestrengthofGSastheleaderofbrokerages,WFCastheleaderofbanksandJPMastheleaderoffinancialsuperpower.Theystillhaveroomtogoup.XLFmeetswithsomeresistanceatits50daySMA.Oncebreakingup,itwillendthisroundofbounceat24(100daySMA)to26(lowerboundofitsupperrangeceiling).
BTW,Iposted熊火燒不盡春風吹又生onedaythemarketbottom(http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200807&postID=15...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-25 08:08:49)
MichaelShedlocksummarizedthatthereare10phasesinabearmarket.Letusreviewwhereitstartedandwherearewenow.
1.Ahugebuy-the-dipmentalitysetsinduringtheinitialdecline.Mostpartygoerscannotfathomthatpartyhasended.
2.Moderateconcernsetsinwhenbuythedipstopsworking.
3.Initialpanic.(FebruarytoMarch2007)
4.Numerousbottomcallsaremade,allwrong.
5.Searchfortheguilty.
6.Punishmentoftheinnocen...[閱讀全文]
1.Ahugebuy-the-dipmentalitysetsinduringtheinitialdecline.Mostpartygoerscannotfathomthatpartyhasended.
2.Moderateconcernsetsinwhenbuythedipstopsworking.
3.Initialpanic.(FebruarytoMarch2007)
4.Numerousbottomcallsaremade,allwrong.
5.Searchfortheguilty.
6.Punishmentoftheinnocen...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-20 12:26:52)
ThePainsandGainsinSpeculations
牛經滄海
IboughtSQNMat3.25on10/22/2003(before1for3reversesplit).Itwentuptoover$4onthenexttwomonths.BeforeIwasabletocelebratethemagicofjunkstockpicking,itdroppedtotheabyss$1duringthesummerdoldrumsof2004.Afteranotheryearofsuffering,itappearedtohavenohopeofrecovery.Ifinallydumpeditattheendof2005forataxsaleandtorealizedatotallossalmost.
...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-15 12:02:20)
1。牛極生熊，熊極牛起。
2。VIX與QQV達低點兩倍以上易生牛。
3。熊如暴君，葬熊必得有影響之公司陪葬。
4。市場中較後轉熊的板塊或最先轉牛，頗似STACK。
5。逐利資本必棄老牛而趨新牛。
6。股市中人不可太執著，更不可輕言放棄。持之以恒才有機會。
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(2008-07-12 14:47:49)
牛經滄海
7/12/2008
縱觀當今之勢，房市，金融，股市皆熊，僅商品一牛耳。三熊一牛，熊軍彼此呼應，其勢咄咄逼人；牛軍形影相吊，其時屈指可數。然世事皆有定數，盛極而衰，既無恒牛，亦無常熊。牛熊更迭，故而為市場。三熊之中，房熊為源，金融衍生產品最堪為憂，股熊隻是前二熊的並發症。2000年科網泡沫破裂，加上911之創，美政府急不擇計，養一個泡沫取代另[閱讀全文]
7/12/2008
縱觀當今之勢，房市，金融，股市皆熊，僅商品一牛耳。三熊一牛，熊軍彼此呼應，其勢咄咄逼人；牛軍形影相吊，其時屈指可數。然世事皆有定數，盛極而衰，既無恒牛，亦無常熊。牛熊更迭，故而為市場。三熊之中，房熊為源，金融衍生產品最堪為憂，股熊隻是前二熊的並發症。2000年科網泡沫破裂，加上911之創，美政府急不擇計，養一個泡沫取代另[閱讀全文]
