蒼海泛舟
方顯英雄本色-- 股市投資探討
博文
(2008-07-28 06:05:52)
SOHUhasanotherblowoutER.
HereisERsummary;
Q2ER$1.02vs0.67cexpected
Q2Revenue102Mvs96.5Mexpected
Q3ER1.00-1.05vs0.71estimated
Revenue:112-116Mvs106Mestimated
SOHUhadatruelyremarkableERbyallstandards,andblowawaythemostaggressiveERestimated.
盡管如此，股票近期並沒有太大上漲空間，原因如上文所述.（ExceptERparts)建議逢高賣掉股票。
JM2C
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(2008-07-25 19:07:54)
所有的跡象表明SOHU季報後，會高台跳水。
SOHU季報可能小幅超過預期，但FutureERguidelower.
原因如下：
1。SentimentistooBullish.ERpositivesurprisealreadypricedin.
2.BIDUERPositivesuprisepushSOHUstockpriceraisesharplyhigherbeforeER.(Buildtofall)
3.AnalystExpectationistoohigh.Ratingisalsotoohigh.Among11analysts,8ratedstrongbuy,2buyandonlyonehold.Itiseasytogetdisappointed.
4.L...[閱讀全文]
SOHU季報可能小幅超過預期，但FutureERguidelower.
原因如下：
1。SentimentistooBullish.ERpositivesurprisealreadypricedin.
2.BIDUERPositivesuprisepushSOHUstockpriceraisesharplyhigherbeforeER.(Buildtofall)
3.AnalystExpectationistoohigh.Ratingisalsotoohigh.Among11analysts,8ratedstrongbuy,2buyandonlyonehold.Itiseasytogetdisappointed.
4.L...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-25 11:31:25)
Marketstillmovebackandforceinanarrowrange.ItisFriday,soMarketwillmovenowhere.
Thecriticalpointtowatch:
ForS&P1250wasMaxpainforlastOE,ItcarryovermostofcallsandputstoAugust,soitisstillserveasoptionrelatedsupport.Breakdownthislevelandstaybelowmeansmarketwillresumedowntrend.Currently,itholdupverywell,sonextweek,wecouldseesomeupdays.
ForNaz2300iscriticalleveltostayaboveinordertokeepuptr...[閱讀全文]
Thecriticalpointtowatch:
ForS&P1250wasMaxpainforlastOE,ItcarryovermostofcallsandputstoAugust,soitisstillserveasoptionrelatedsupport.Breakdownthislevelandstaybelowmeansmarketwillresumedowntrend.Currently,itholdupverywell,sonextweek,wecouldseesomeupdays.
ForNaz2300iscriticalleveltostayaboveinordertokeepuptr...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-25 07:03:04)
SoldSKF50shrsat$135Gained$21x50=1050
SoldSKFone150callat$8.9
Position100shrsofSKF
Totalcash:1050+650+890=$2590
Costreduceto:$174-25.9=$148.1
Waitfornextopportunity.
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(2008-07-24 15:06:32)
ContinueholdSKF150shrs.SKFhasgoodchancetogoupto150+innearterm.
SetuplimitordertosellSKFat$150GTC(all150shrs)
Wewillseeinnextfewdays.
Bytoday'scloseprice,stilllose$20/shr.Butithassignificantimprovefromafewdayago.Thecostnewdownto$150.
TradingPlan,therearetwoscenarios:
1.SKFgoupto150+thesellorderbefilled,thenweareoutoftrap.
2.SKFcannotreach150inthisupwave,then,Iwillsell50shrsb...[閱讀全文]
SetuplimitordertosellSKFat$150GTC(all150shrs)
Wewillseeinnextfewdays.
Bytoday'scloseprice,stilllose$20/shr.Butithassignificantimprovefromafewdayago.Thecostnewdownto$150.
TradingPlan,therearetwoscenarios:
1.SKFgoupto150+thesellorderbefilled,thenweareoutoftrap.
2.SKFcannotreach150inthisupwave,then,Iwillsell50shrsb...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-24 12:28:05)
Oilisdueforbounce.USOcouldgoupto106-108area.USOyesterdaycloseisrighton38.2%Fiboretracement.
BecauseUSObreaksthelongtermuptrendline,anybounceissuspicious.IfUSOcannotcloseabove106andstaythereformorethanoneday,itwillresumethedowntrend.USOnexttargetwillbe94and88.
OilandUSObounceisjustcoincidewithmarketpullback.
USODailyChart
OilandUSObouncewillboostcommoditystockswhichrecentlyhadsizabl...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-24 11:59:52)
(Thisispartofmypostinasmallgroupthismorning.)
SPXandDowstarttoretreatfromyesterdayclosebecauseofoverboughtconditionandlongdueforretreatsment.AsIsaidSPXhitresistanceat1292whichisFibo38.1%bouncefrom7/15lows.Itcouldre-test1250inafew
days.IfSPXcanholdabove1250bydayclose,itwillbecomenewlanchpadtocontinuereboundstartfrom7/15.The1stresistanceareaisstill1292.
AAPLstartdropbadly.Theexcitimentof...[閱讀全文]
SPXandDowstarttoretreatfromyesterdayclosebecauseofoverboughtconditionandlongdueforretreatsment.AsIsaidSPXhitresistanceat1292whichisFibo38.1%bouncefrom7/15lows.Itcouldre-test1250inafew
days.IfSPXcanholdabove1250bydayclose,itwillbecomenewlanchpadtocontinuereboundstartfrom7/15.The1stresistanceareaisstill1292.
AAPLstartdropbadly.Theexcitimentof...[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-23 08:33:28)
BoughttocloseSKF170callat1.8Gain$650intwodays.
IalsobetmyrealmoneyonSKFthismorning.
Currentposition:
150SKFaveragecostdownto{(174-8.3+1.8)x100+114x50}/150=$149.67
Currentholding:150shrsofSKFataveragecost$149.67
Costreducedfromtwodaysago:174-149.67=24.33
%costreduce:14%
Thiswillbeupdatedcontinuouslyasexamplehowtoescapefromtrap.
[閱讀全文]
IalsobetmyrealmoneyonSKFthismorning.
Currentposition:
150SKFaveragecostdownto{(174-8.3+1.8)x100+114x50}/150=$149.67
Currentholding:150shrsofSKFataveragecost$149.67
Costreducedfromtwodaysago:174-149.67=24.33
%costreduce:14%
Thiswillbeupdatedcontinuouslyasexamplehowtoescapefromtrap.
[閱讀全文]
(2008-07-23 07:15:38)
UsehalfMarginBot50shrsofSKFat$114
FinancialswentuptoofastandtoomanywithnochangeinFA.Finacialproblemsarelargelyremained.
TA:XLFhit20DMAandhasmetstrongresistancethere.Itisdueforapullback.
[閱讀全文]
FinancialswentuptoofastandtoomanywithnochangeinFA.Finacialproblemsarelargelyremained.
TA:XLFhit20DMAandhasmetstrongresistancethere.Itisdueforapullback.
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(2008-07-22 13:30:43)
QQQQ再一次Survive了.今天開盤不久就達到了今天的低點43.86,然後就路上升，收盤時奪回了所有失地。QQQQ又一次在關鍵的時刻回到了通道之內，避免了SellOff.S&P500在早盤回探1248後，強力反彈。1250MaxPain起到了很好的支撐作用，使下衝的攻勢瓦解了。Dow終盤漲135點。
近期的下調，被暫時擊潰，市場會恢複漲勢。DowandS&P對扭轉大盤跌勢起到了重要作用，並把NazandQQQQ從危險的邊[閱讀全文]
近期的下調，被暫時擊潰，市場會恢複漲勢。DowandS&P對扭轉大盤跌勢起到了重要作用，並把NazandQQQQ從危險的邊[閱讀全文]
