引言
I am afraid that the entire political structure of the West since 1945 was built on a constant "war" against somebody. Until 1991, it was USSR; then there were 10 unhappy hears until Islamic Fundamentalism came along (never a worthy opponent), now the West has found China. https://t.co/WxqIneG8QG
— Branko Milanovic (@BrankoMilan) March 6, 2021
大內宣
曆史的謊言
"But decades from now...someone...would all end in tears". No. On the contrary, this will become the basis of another round of self-congratulatory hubris, "see, we Americans have such
What is the Liberal International Order? | The German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Does this refer to political liberalism (in opposition to authoritarianism)? Or economic liberalism (in opposition to economic nationalism or mercantilism)? Or liberalism in the sense that international relations theorists use it (in opposition to realism and other theories of international relations)?
The easy answer is that it refers to all three — because they go hand in hand
end of history, populsim+china+internal (race, inequality)+covid=> wrong
The Anglo-American history profession’s cardinal sin has been so-called “presentism,”
大外宣與戰狼
A bipartisan U.S. consensus emerges on the scale of the threat from Beijing
如果此話不是出自一個白人口裏，尤其是保守白男人，那肯定被攻擊成大外宣
A lot of US foreign policy experts are worried about #China's rise. Me too. But how many of these experts have reflected on the fact that China hasn't been fighting wars in lots of places, while steadily gaining greater wealth, power and influence?
— Stephen Walt (@stephenWalt) June 29, 2021
內在的文化戰
戰爭
Is it that Beijing doesn't have intent because it doesn't have capability? If so, the US should take advantage of this window to help Taiwan develop the capabilities to counter what is surely a longer-term Beijing intent and capability. https://t.co/jpOC3SHe48
— Elizabeth Economy (@LizEconomy) June 19, 2021
Australian and British Navy ships will send a joint message to China by sailing through the South China Sea. Prime Minister Morrison's stance against Beijing has garnered support from leaders around the world. @jekearsley #9News pic.twitter.com/T1jmwqMFN8
— 9News Melbourne (@9NewsMelb) June 20, 2021
Tonight, the Grand Hotel is lit up in A??T to celebrate Taiwan-U.S. friendship.
— 王定宇 Wang Ting-yu, MP (@MPWangTingyu) June 20, 2021
The de facto U.S. Embassy in Taiwan is called The American Institute in Taiwan or AIT; the pronunciation of the letter "I" is similar to 愛 (which means love??).
A??T also means America loves Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/NtxawTsvBp
The biggest challenge, though, lies in Putin’s actions, which are unpredictable by design. Biden’s overriding foreign policy goal is to rebuff an increasingly assertive China. A key element of Biden’s strategy is to frame the global stakes between the US and China (and Russia, as China’s autocratic lieutenant) in terms of democracy versus autocracy. That is all very well. But America’s friends are watching the direction of US politics with genuine trepidation. Far from banishing the forces of Trumpism, Biden’s victory has hastened their full takeover of the Republican party. To European observers, the world’s most consequential democracy vs autocracy battle may in fact be taking place within the United States.
The relief among European officials was visible. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, referred to America’s president as “Dear Joe” — an endearment it would be hard to imagine being used for many of Biden’s predecessors, not just Trump. “Biden’s language and tone was everything Europeans wished for,” says Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“One European official told me he thinks about America in the way an amputee feels that a missing limb is still there. Will it grow back?”對美國民主的懷疑Edward Luce
就是我說的，該讓就得讓
Such an approach means downplaying Biden’s “democracy versus autocracy” framing. America would instead play on autocratic Russia’s anxiety about being treated as a little brother by China
Europe’s reluctance to view China with the same existential concern as America does. The continent does more trade with China than the US
拜登可憐
Example of why we shouldn’t allow progressive policies to be tethered to escalation. Some said Biden needed the anti-China rhetoric to sell progressive policies in Washington, but shouldn’t we be worried about him using progressive policies to sell escalation?
— Sarah Lazare (@sarahlazare) June 24, 2021
The president’s visit to Europe isn’t about trade deals but repairing US domestic politics
假安撫，騰出手來，不是攘外必先安內，而是假攘外則安內
Anyone with such hopes is bound to be disappointed. Despite his rhetoric, Biden isn’t really interested in a return to the status quo, or in reuniting the old band of transatlanticists to tour their greatest hits. The old transatlantic relationship reflected America’s needs after the 1939-45 war. The US didn’t create Nato or shovel money at shattered European economies out of disinterested generosity, but because it wanted to strengthen allies to better face shared threats.
這就是我說的，拜登打得民主牌是為給大家畫大餅，
中國諷刺美國，稱要搞“疫苗外交”，美國想給世界“畫大餅”，“說大話，沒有錢”，G7給世界畫了一張“基建大餅”，非也，拜登時民主大餅
例子
U.S. Military to Withdraw Hundreds of Troops, Aircraft, Antimissile Batteries From Middle East - WSJ
美國的吸引力是很大的，普京頂得住嗎？
中國對美國碰頭風聲冷淡
德國
老天，默克爾的接班人有點戲，不過
默克爾素描
金燦榮胡謅，但這也不無道理
歐洲的從屬地位
“Do we need a new adversary?” With those words, Armin Laschet summed up the European response to Joe Biden’s efforts to convince Europeans to get tougher on China
Beijing’s hope was not to be. What surprised China is that the EU never regarded the CAI as a political agreement. Having forced Beijing to concede on key points, the bloc did not hesitate to walk over China’s most salient red lines. On March 22, the EU joined the U.K. and the U.S. in imposing sanctions aimed at Chinese officials believed to be involved in human rights violations in Xinjiang province. b/c "It is part of the EU’s political tradition to believe that politics and the economy can be insulated from each other“”
a list of undesirable...seems to have been approved by the top leadership in Zhongnanhai with little or no scrutiny
Chinese officials I talked to expressed any doubt that, on March 22, the Chinese leadership decided to kill the investment agreement with the European Union. The choice was conscious and deliberate
So it's not "outplayed", just misunderstood,
Andreas Fulda
But with CCP-led China Flag of China that is impossible. This is a major flaw in European thinking about China
But with CCP-led China Flag of China that is impossible. This is a major flaw in European thinking about China
澳大利亞的莫裏森說服歐洲和中國較勁
成功把澳大利亞拒絕對氣候承諾的話題轉了，中國駐澳大利亞大使館向澳大利亞政府的“14點”成了最後通牒，不僅僅是對澳大利亞，莫裏森向“盟友們”一攤，也成了中國向西方的最後通牒
Speaking of threats and intimidation, Macron declared Australia was at the “forefront” of the dispute in the region and pledged to stand by Canberra’s side
The speech raised eyebrows from those listening in, including assembled press who knew Macron had told an earlier summit in Brussels that he didn’t think China was NATO’s business. But a transcript of what Macron actually said at NATO is telling. Of China, he said: “It is much larger than just the military issue. It is economic. It is strategic. It is about values. It is technological.”
The statement was probably less than Morrison and an increasingly assertive Biden had hoped for but was a big step up from just two years ago
中國在外交上咄咄逼人，市場開放遲遲不兌現
the harsh truth is that there will be no Western alliance to contain China, and no united democratic front against Beijing’s authoritarianism
這是我要說的
中國信嗎？
中國為什麽排出一大批飛機騷擾台灣？中國已經好多天沒飛行了，就是為了給西方、美國一個信號，好，七強、歐盟、北約先後公報，中國受不了了，隻能飛
信號？
對此美歐有如此不同的反應，美國人（鷹派）覺得天啊，拜登沒跟歐洲小弟們說好嗎，怎麽敢私自通俄？美國的陣營不是險了？歐洲：美國跟俄國搞穩定，我們也學學，跟上
Biden's China strategy: a chronology
拜登送出絞索，習近平伸上脖子
中國人說得對，七強，加上“西方霸權主義的走狗”並不代表全世界，但他們加起來是當前超過世界經濟的一半，和而不同表示允許他人說話，反擊
習近平的全麵出擊，明擺著就是讓所有敵人團結在一起，不是敵人也成了敵人，即使西方抗疫不得力，處處擠噠、攻擊，誰會高興啊？
專製導致無能，中國外交部的戰狼隻會文革那種揭短（盡管很多也是事實）、侮辱謾罵、含沙射影指桑罵愧，和直接攻擊對方的價值觀和國家體製，說是“以其人之道，還治其人之身”
沒有疑問美國已經把中國視為敵人，處處將中國置於死地，中國也不得不反擊，但這並不意味著全麵與“美國的走狗”為敵，而且把西方統稱為“走狗”本身就是失策
什麽是該反擊的？拜登公開命令美國情報部門調查武漢病毒研究所泄露案
中國有很多“正能量”出處的反擊，最大的莫過於呼籲全世界團結製造、接種疫苗，包括免費向落後國家提供疫苗（這點中國做的不夠，大部分是出口，出售）
歐盟和中國存在巨大利益，而且還在許多領域對中國非常依賴
歐盟長期以來都是中國第一大貿易夥伴，疫情期間降到第二，略微少於東盟。因此歐盟為了美國的戰略利益而放棄中國是根本不可能的。這個代價歐盟既承受不起，美國也無法給予相當的補償。這既是美國今天的國力使然，也是美國的經濟結構決定的
那歐洲怎麽想，你知道嗎？
黑斯廷斯中心的高級顧問、《中國處方：揭露美國對中國藥品依賴的風險》一書的作者羅斯瑪麗·吉布森表示：“假如中國停止出口藥品生產的核心成分，幾個月之內，美國的藥店貨架就會空空如也，醫療係統就會停止運作。”
萬一開戰，美國鷹派們絕對沒想過
“第三，拜登和特朗普外交政策迥然不同，但本質上並沒有多少區別。都是美國利益優先”，大概我想的，大家也想到了，都是大什麽
“中國的收獲則是拜登並沒有真正地把歐洲拉過去，反而是歐洲利用美國滿足了自己的利益。下麵就看中國如何對歐洲出牌了”
中國的反擊是算好了協定被凍結的後果，歐洲的窗口並不大，機會很短，但宋忽視了價值在西方心目中的地位，而且美歐都沒有把政局變更作為主要因素，盡管他們也擔心，這點是中西的區別，但結局並不明朗
歐洲民粹沒那麽嚴重了
美國對中國技術的全麵封殺
美國的東風
台灣
這才是含金量高的攻擊，都不用罵人，隻需要把事實列舉出來，然後說“我們西方發達國家真正把威脅人類生存的大事和他們口頭承諾聯係起來”，共同接受挑戰即可。
- Japan came round to setting a coal end date
- US was the one that blocked, coal, EVs target
- Italy offered tiny amount for climate finance... but the US didn't even offer a figure
- US was the one that blocked, coal, EVs target
- Italy offered tiny amount for climate finance... but the US didn't even offer a figure
暨南大學陳定定
美國非武力戰
“國際反腐”
美國海軍重建整個驅逐艦艦隊，90艘，2028完成設計，開始建造，2032年服役（或下水）
？
冠毒戰
新的（2021.08.15）
世衛重新向中國叫陣，美國跟上，惡戰來了
種族歧視，種族迫害
疫苗出口
Yes US has a point
新陰謀論
量化寬鬆
