笨狼 (2021-06-15 22:35:36) 評論 (0)
一:經濟
(肯定在某處記下了)
Quantitative easing: how the world got hooked on magicked-up money - Prospect Magazine
 
S. Eich, Independence from What? – Just Money
Greg Ip on Twitter: "Most of the inflation handwringing is over traditional demand-driven inflation. But the real threat is supply-driven inflation, and it explains the growing worries over the recovery's health. My column. https://t.co/uEmQg8FXEf" / Twitter
How Inflation Threatens the Recovery - WSJ
U.S.-China Goods Trade Booms as If Virus, Tariffs Never Happened - Bloomberg
 
How China Is Helping to Damp Global Inflation - WSJ
 
 
二:中國
閻學通:新時代外交,中國如何發出自己的聲音? (guancha.cn)
[最初,拜登的勝選在中國政府內部和媒體中引發了樂觀情緒,他們判斷華盛頓的對華政策會進行根本性的反思。但這種樂觀情緒很快就消失了]中國最初希望拜登政府能夠緩和與中國的緊張關係,但這一希望已經破滅。
中國已經走過了“站起來”和“富起來”的階段,現在到了“強起來”的階段。以美國為首的單極秩序正在逐漸消失,中國的崛起和美國的相對衰落加速了這一秩序的消亡,取而代之的將是一個以中美為核心的多極秩序。
一方麵,中國急於避免將與西方的關係定格為一場新冷戰。中國領導人認為,蘇聯式的意識形態擴張主義可能會引發反彈,從而阻礙中國經濟持續增長,而且他們並不寄望自己的意識形態能像西方自由主義那樣傳播到世界各地——他們強調中國是一個“有中國特色”的發展中國家,暗示其他國家不能原封不動地照搬其政治製度和治理模式
例如,美國從選舉政治和個人表達的角度來定義民主和自由,而中國則從社會安全和經濟發展的角度來定義民主與自由
與西方的普遍看法相反,中國實際上並沒有拒絕多邊規則和多邊機構,中國隻是不接受美國在未與中國協商的情況下製定規則
中國政府希望由此產生的國內繁榮將改善與其他國家的經濟關係,並助力世界經濟複蘇
北京還將尋求減少美國金融製裁的影響,包括在外貿和對外投資領域促進人民幣國際化。2020年,中國開始在少數幾個大城市試點數字人民幣,這種創新有朝一日可以讓中國及其商業夥伴在受美國控製的SWIFT係統之外進行貨幣交易。SWIFT是美國重要的地緣政治杠杆。
這是
Becoming Strong - Foreign Affairs
 
田飛龍:“一國兩製”方案,不能隻想著怎樣給台灣更高的自治權 (guancha.cn)
田飛龍的說法沒什麽人會接受
這是對田飛龍最響亮的回擊:
The current exodus from Hong Kong isn’t like pre-1997 – these people won’t be returning. And that changes the city | South China Morning Post
 
袁鵬:新冠疫情與百年變局 - 愛思想
 
Philippines: Asia Cannot Afford South China Sea War – Eurasia Review
 
The Myth of Authoritarian Superiority: China’s Response to Covid-19 Revisited (prcleader.org)
The West isn’t dying – its ideas live on in China (newstatesman.com)
 
 
三:美國
 
美國一場打不贏的戰爭
The legacy of 9/11 - Prospect Magazine
Why there is no solution to our age of crisis without China (newstatesman.com)
 
Asia Digital Deal Raises Hope U.S. to Rejoin TPP Successor - Bloomberg
(華爾街日報的)
 
其實拜登是沒辦法,因為他在國內沒能力調動其他勢力,大家不聽他的
Infrastructure bill: Here's what's in it - CNNPolitics
However, it is far short of the $2.25 trillion proposal that President Joe Biden unveiled in March
$550bn (Biden ask $2.3T)
The Infrastructure Plan: What’s In and What’s Out - The New York Times
 
 
 
拜登絞殺的中國良策
 
Biden’s China Policy Borrows From Trump and Adds Allies to Raise Pressure - WSJ
正如《華爾街日報》所言,其實拜登沒什麽招數,就是用“民主對專製”引誘“西方盟友”共同反華,反華的對此還是沿用川普大家記得川普的美國第一是反貿易反
而且還很混亂,一直不知道怎麽辦
 
Digital colonialism: The evolution of US empire - Longreads (tni.org)
美國副外長謝爾曼(中國稱為舍曼)訪問中國前夕,趙立堅放出狠話【1】,“美方一再揚言‘從實力地位出發’與中方對話,這反映出美方的傲慢和霸道。正如中方一再指出,美方沒有資格對中國說教或指手畫腳,沒有資格說從實力地位出發與中國打交道。‘我們在安克雷奇不吃這一套,在天津更不會吃這一套。’”可以說中國最恨就是“從實力地位出發”這句話,一下子就把中國壓在下麵,
 
真正感到中國威脅的,恰恰是對以美國為世界領袖自由民主秩序深信不疑的那一群人,有理論家,有思想界,有政治家、政客,也有資本界和軍工產業的代表,這種威脅的第一
 
拜登對華政策不論多麽高唱“民主”,他都不能停下來與中國合作抗疫,可見民主隻是一種手段,借口
 
【1】趙立堅說中方在天津更不吃美方這一套-新華網 (xinhuanet.com)

 

美國釋放了幾名被美國控告簽證作假的解放軍學者,不知道是不是信號,如今什麽都是籌碼,什麽都是一步棋
 
全球化並沒有減弱、
Globalization Isn’t in Decline: It’s Changing | (ecipe.org)
數字經濟在擴大,美國的數字經濟聯盟
 
 
 
Why Tianjin? And what’s in store in China for US envoy Wendy Sherman? | South China Morning Post
China promises US a ‘tutorial’ in how to treat other countries equally ahead of deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman’s visit | South China Morning Post
“我們有責任給美國補上這一課”_王毅 (sohu.com)
 
政策的矛盾反映在財政姚玲和貿易代表戴琪之間的不同意見
U.S.-Asia Digital Pact Held Up by Squabble Among Biden Officials - WSJ
 
Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win - The Atlantic
 
【】中方決定對前美商務部長羅斯等7個美方人員和實體實施製裁 (guancha.cn)
中國的製裁隻不過是回應美國之前的舉動,未必算得上對謝爾曼的警告,但至少可以表示對等。
 
【】The Intellectual Foundations of the Biden Revolution - Foreign Policy
這個辯論太有揭示性了,不可能有一個自由秩序
Washington’s Democracy Dilemma | Foreign Affairs
Michael Lind
Foreign War Has Not Made America a Garrison State (nationalinterest.org)
 
Biden Isn’t Ending the Forever Wars. He’s Rebranding Them. | The New Republic
Biden’s Dangerous China Doctrine (foreignpolicy.com)
 
China’s Sputnik Moment? | Foreign Affairs
Fed up with the U.S., Ukraine cuts deals with China and shuts up about the Uyghurs (nbcnews.com)
 
Misplaced Restraint: The Quincy Coalition Versus Liberal Internationalism (tandfonline.com)
Calling 'liberal internationalism' what it is: American primacy – Responsible Statecraft
https://twitter.com/stephenWalt/status/1423302951959941126
U.S. Foreign Policy Restraint—What It Is, What It’s Not | The National Interest
 
 
Soft Sells: On Liberal Internationalism | The Nation
Even a Short War Over Taiwan or the Baltics Would Be Horrific for Civilians (foreignpolicy.com)
Rachel Esplin Odell on Twitter: "Deeply important piece by @danmahanty of @CivCenter. This should be required reading for anyone pontificating on 'great power competition.' A US-China war could unleash a level of human devastation the world has never seen--certainly not in my lifetime. https://t.co/TAfnRL6mO3" / Twitter
 
The Problem with Biden’s Democracy Agenda - War on the Rocks
If Biden wants to bring about a democratic revival — to lead, as he constantly (and rightly) says, by the “power of our example” — he should focus on getting America’s own house in order. Until then, less preaching and a little humility are called for
 
拜登
"American Exceptionalism" for the 21st Century - by Kate Kizer - Foreign Exchanges
Biden Can Do Better Than Trump’s China Policy - The American Prospect
能做得更好,還是不願意?
 
外交部副部長謝鋒在天津同美國常務副國務卿舍曼會談 (guancha.cn)
確實說得挺全麵,但要降低對立程度,中國也得做出讓步
中國指責美國“叢林規則”,時代變了
China lays down “four stops” for visiting Dep Sec of State Wendy Sherman
 
 
中方向美方提出兩份清單-新華網
且不說撤銷、修正這些政策對美國好不好,僅僅是就拜登目前在國內的處境,就知道他做不到
US-China relations: Beijing lays down red lines for first time in Sherman meeting | South China Morning Post
 
美媒淡化中方兩份清單,“他們甚至沒勇氣麵對這一現實” (guancha.cn)
人家置之不理,什麽“沒勇氣麵對”
 
AP Interview: US calls on China to be responsible power | The State
王毅會見美國常務副國務卿舍曼:向美方提出三條底線 | 新浪新聞
Biden Accuses Russia of Already Interfering in 2022 Election | Voice of America
Biden referred to both Russia and China as "possibly mortal competitors down the road."
the U.S. president said that Chinese President Xi Jinping "is deadly earnest about becoming the most powerful military force in the world, as well as the largest and most prominent economy in the world" by the mid-2040s.
拜登放話:若美國與某大國打“熱戰”,導火索是“網絡攻擊” (guancha.cn)
怎麽理解拜登的話呢?你可以想拜登很擔心,但同時暗示美國不會退縮,即使開戰也在所不惜
歐美澳日官員發聲明支持第二階段新冠溯源,中方表態 (guancha.cn)
 
The U.S. Air Force Is Sending Dozens Of F-22 Stealth Fighters To Practice For War With China (forbes.com)
 
 
大局:全球化之類的大趨勢
Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/5 I am not on the inside so I don't know how well the meeting went, but from the press reports I'd say not terribly well. I'd add three things. https://t.co/mblxmUFTs7 via @scmpnews" / Twitter
Geopolitical tensions and anti-foreign feelings have been rising among a wide range of countries, and for a variety of reasons
It will be especially difficult for Beijing to resolve its tensions with other countries – India, Japan, Australia, Europe, the UK, Brazil, the Philippines, and others – as long as it continues to insist that these tensions can only be blamed on actions by Washington
 
到處出擊四麵樹敵,中國的政治大家不感冒
 
Biden’s China Strategy Meets Resistance at the Negotiating Table - The New York Times
“We believe our relationship can tolerate that nuance.”
舍曼言輕了
They included human rights, quickly narrowing political freedoms in Hong Kong and what Ms. Sherman called “the horrifying actions taking place in Xinjiang,”
Ms. Sherman also raised China’s demands over Taiwan, its military operations in the South China Sea, and the accusations last week by the United States and other nations that China’s Ministry of State Security was behind the hacking
 
“We were quite direct with each other on the areas of great difference,” she said.
 
While Mr. Biden has largely avoided  the heated ideological sparring with the Chinese Communist Party that the Trump administration pursued in its final year,
顯然不是如此,拜登更加意識形態,隻是沒那麽人身攻擊
 
The rules-based order meets its end - by Bruno Maçães - World Game
Smart comments
U.S. to stress need for 'guardrails' in Sherman's talks in China | Reuters
US to tell China it doesn't want to 'veer into conflict' - Nikkei Asia
在中國人讀起來,就是,我打你,會很狠,但你不能哭
 
 
Chinese Officials Blame U.S. for Stalemate in High-Level Talks - WSJ
“There are some things that rise above specific differences that are the global responsibility of great powers,” Ms. Sherman told the Associated Press in an interview after the meeting in Tianjin concluded.
I’m old enough to remember the Obama admin’s refusal to use Beijing’s “new type of great power relationship” 新型大國關係 language because it implied acknowledgment of peer status. Eric Hundman | 何諳銳
 
China says US relations at a ‘deadlock’ in high-level talks | Financial Times
China is defying US pressure to change its behaviour | Financial Times
https://twitter.com/DeputySecState/status/1419613445029249026
Artyom Lukin on Twitter: "There is some cognitive dissonance when one country accuses another government of "genocide and crimes against humanity", but at the same time maintains a $560 bln annual trade relationship with the government in question. https://t.co/1fOIWeLzVW" / Twitter
 
US, China hold high-level talks, highlighting differences (apnews.com)
 
 
Beijing thrusts long lists of demands at Biden administration - POLITICO
China, US draw lines in the sand at top-level meeting but agree to keep talking | South China Morning Post
 
Deputy Secretary Sherman’s Visit to the People’s Republic of China - United States Department of State
,顯示兩國之間保持開放溝通渠道的重要性,討論如何為負責任地管理美中關係設定條件。謝爾曼強調歡迎兩國激烈競爭,但不尋求與中國衝突。
接上:國務院聲明稱謝爾曼私下提出對中國係列行動的關切,包括香港新疆西藏人權問題,及對媒體準入和新聞自由的限製。她談及北京在網絡空間、台海、東海、南海行為的關切。
謝爾曼提出美加公民在中國被拘被禁出境的情況,提醒人命不是討價還價的籌碼;重申美國對中國拒絕世衛第二階段溯源調查的關切。
 
 
“Despite our different views over the Hong Kong or the Uyghur cases, what Trump called the economic decoupling with China is something beyond our intentions and is contrary to our interests,” said Borrell
EU mulls review of China policy, again – POLITICO
 
牛逼
In Stinging Rebuke, China Tells U.S. Diplomat That Its Rise Can’t Be Stopped, likely true, but the question of why the US should continue to help its rise is now mainstream and likely to be answered in a bipartisan way "we should not"
 
為什麽大家可以放棄事關人類生存的第一威脅而走入一場你死我活的鬥爭?
氣候
Opinion | Apocalypse Right Now - The New York Times
As Frozen Land Burns, Siberia Trembles - The New York Times
Humans have pushed the climate into ‘unprecedented’ territory, landmark U.N. report finds - The Washington Post
IPCC report’s verdict on climate crimes of humanity: guilty as hell | Climate change | The Guardian
 
‘Apocalyptic’ scenes hit Greece as Athens besieged by fire | Wildfires | The Guardian
Turkey wildfires: 'The animals are on fire,' say devastated farmers as wildfires sweep Turkey - CNN
Heat Wave Spread Fire That Erased Lytton, British Columbia - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
 
Fires rage around the world: where are the worst blazes? | Wildfires | The Guardian
 
Oil producers face costly transition as world looks to net-zero future | Financial Times
 
 
Chapter 1: The Construction of Political Superiority - The China Story
中國最自己製度的自信不是沒道理,但中國會發現把信念轉換成現實,很難,甚至遙不可及
China Crackdown Makes Hong Kong Index World’s Biggest Tech Loser - Bloomberg
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/crackdown-by-china-on-tech-cos-make-hong-kong-index-world-s-biggest-loser-121072500147_1.html
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-crackdown-makes-hong-kong-index-world-s-biggest-tech-loser-1.1632559
 
No evidence the US has Australia’s back in its dispute with China, despite all the rhetoric | South China Morning Post
 
四:歐洲
MEPs set out their vision for a new EU strategy for China - EU Reporter
五:曆史
六:政治
We Can’t Go Back to a Golden Age of Capitalism (jacobinmag.com)
The Imperial Syndrome - JHI Blog(網站好像不錯?)
Decolonize Intellectual History! An Agenda for the Capitalocene - JHI Blog
七:科技
Big Tech calls for ‘regulation’ but is fuzzy on the details | Financial Times
美國要政府插手,降低自己的責任,中國政府主動,則被指責成專製幹預市場
 
八:人文
 
 
在中國,“國家”在個人生活裏無處不在,在美國(和西方資本主義國家),“公司”在個人生活裏無處不在,韋伯所說的現代人努力把“工作”和“生活”分離(Compartmentalization),有多大現實呢?
 
Inside Amazon's Employment Machine - The New York Times
Amazon’s Greatest Weapon Against Unions: Worker Turnover | HuffPost
Amazon’s Ring is the largest civilian surveillance network the US has ever seen | Lauren Bridges | The Guardian
 
“黨”
Unlocking anti-fragile China: How Xi reinforces the party state for global leadership | Merics
 
美國的戰略產業鏈麵臨的難題:打不過中國
 
FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force to Address Short-Term Supply Chain Discontinuities | The White House
FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration 100-Day Battery Supply Chain Review | Department of Energy
https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/mcm/Pages/supply-chain-100-days.aspx
 
Experts React: Assessing the White House 100-Day Supply Chain Review | Center for Strategic and International Studies
Biden Announces Next Steps in US Critical Supply Chain Review | IndustryWeek
Biden Administration Outlines Measures to Address Supply-Chain Issues - WSJ
Biden Administration Moves to Fix Supply Chain Bottlenecks - The New York Times
Biden to shore up supply chains for four sectors after 100-day reviews - POLITICO
Factbox: Biden supply-chain review yields measures on China | Reuters
Biden's Plan To Reduce Shortages Of Critical Products : NPR
 
Breaking Down the White House’s Supply Chain Recommendations (linkedin.com)
Craig Allen:
U.S.-China trade dispute harms Americans - POLITICO
 
China's Trade Data for H1 2021 Shows Stronger Than Expected Results (china-briefing.com)
China’s June exports make ‘surprise’ surge, but questions linger over trade outlook | South China Morning Post
China's export growth quickens as global vaccinations, easing lockdowns lift demand | Reuters
229% Surge in China-U.S. Shipping Costs Drives Inflation Pressure - BNN Bloomberg
海關總署:上半年我國自美國進口農產品增長120.8%_新浪財經_新浪網 (sina.com.cn)
 
and next and stuck-at-home U.S. consumers still shopping and importing in record amounts.
U.S. companies purchasing goods they can’t get elsewhere to meet elevated household demand fueled in part by trillions of dollars in government stimulus.
“We’ve seen the strong consumer demand that’s been occurring throughout the pandemic, and we’ve seen the import levels just go through the roof,”
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v2/charts/ea90993e2d94494082835565bd75cbd8.html?brand=markets&webTheme=markets&web=true&hideTitles=true
 
 
歐洲的困境
The EU’s unsustainable China strategy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Pepijn Bergsen on Twitter: "For my first solo think-tank report I analysed the EU's China strategy from an economic perspective and looked at the implications for transatlantic cooperation on China. Short ???? below and full report here: https://t.co/5C23Me87Va" / Twitter
 
歐洲聯盟,形成朋友圈,將中國排斥在外
Biden’s Plan to Cooperate With Europe on Tech (foreignpolicy.com)
EU starts work on rival to China’s Belt and Road Initiative – POLITICO
Biden and EU allies create tough week for China - POLITICO
 
Can China blunt the impact of new US economic sanctions? | PIIE
 
Institute for New Economic Thinking (ineteconomics.org)
 
‘Onshoring’ Is So Last Year. The New Lingo Is ‘Friend-Shoring’ - Bloomberg
The Challenge of Rebuilding U.S. Domestic Supply Chains (hbr.org)
The Biden administration adopted “ally-shoring” and spun it into “friend-shoring” in a 250-page report released this month titled Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth.
Rebuilding America’s economy and foreign policy with ‘ally-shoring’ (brookings.edu)
基本上是美國陣營的
 
 
非常技術性的軍事力量對比分析,太難
Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Defense Department News
Trends, Timelines, and Uncertainty: an Assessment of the Military Balance in the Indo-Pacific - Shugart SFRC Testimony 17 Mar 2021 FINAL.docx (senate.gov)
 
半導體、芯片(這些報道都可疑)
Chinese firm's 7nm GPU expected to tape out in Q3 - CnTechPost
U.S. Blocks Chinese Deal for Magnachip | EE Times
Huawei to run foundry biz (digitimes.com)
Huawei's 'HiSilicon Factory' to close chipset gap - Asia Times
Mapping China’s semiconductor ecosystem in global context: Strategic dimensions and conclusions | Merics
China set to achieve 14 nm breakthrough in 2022 | total telecom
China's first 12-inch wafer regeneration facility achieves mass production - CnTechPost
 
China hoards Semiconductor Equipment... A Surge in Purchases of US Equipment despite Public Regulations - ETNews
 
Global wafer semiconductor production capacity
ASML’s chip money machines | Financial Times
 
14nm chips will reach mass production in China next year | total telecom
March 2021: Results from China's Semiconductor Big Fund I | Tech Buzz China Insider
 

亞洲視覺科技研發總監陳經
國產14nm芯片明年底量產,能在2025年形成有效產能就不錯了,但意義極大_風聞
溫曉君“國產14nm芯片明年量產”的技術性解讀_風聞
媒體刪除“國產14nm芯片明年量產”是嚴謹的,原內容也不符合技術規律_風聞
最近我的芯片宣傳取得一定成效,部分讀者冷靜了很多,中國芯片業必須拒絕“沸騰”_風聞
 
美國的民不聊生
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
舊:
 
MIT Visualizing Cultures
 
 
 
 
https://visualizingcultures.mit.edu/opium_wars_01/ow1_essay01.html
戰狼:The Man Behind China’s Aggressive New Voice - The New York Times(很顯然報道對美國的作用輕描淡寫)
 
 
 
金星與一起主持《金星秀》的沈南。
天啊,變性人
 
這個躺平《紐時》采訪還不錯
我覺得我們的社會就是一個等級森嚴的尊卑社會體係,人活著應該是可上可下的一種生活方式,現在變成一種全民打雞血的,這不太妥當
 
澳大利亞的反對聲音
 
經濟
三胎政策的投機
 
外交
對付沙特的困境,和最近幾天回見沙特王子,說明美國還是假的
 
打仗
 
 
美國思想
這兩篇《經濟學人》對美國戰略思維的貧困描述得很深
China Inc’s new inconspicuous expansion | The Economist
 
 
 
非常一針見血
 
 
 
軍事
 
兔主席
 
Amid a historic crackdown on China’s tech sector, companies are also working to eliminate 996 work culture and answer Beijing’s call to boost employment?
 
 
新疆
 
 
 
 
 
哪來的?
 
 
作假?
 
 
 
 
 
 
印度疫情
印度
 
 
Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are abusing their power while China waits to assert its primacy in the world economy
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

【拜登思想】
Biden Wants to Build ‘From the Middle Out.’ Here’s What He Means - Bloomberg
 

 

外交部:30國領導人已公開接種中國疫苗 (guancha.cn)

 

 
 

 

 

 

 
Will COVID become a disease of the young? (nature.com)
TRENDING YOUNGER. Over half of Israel's new COVID-19 cases in the month up to 5 July were in people aged 19 and under.
以色列,民情與其他國家不一樣
It’s a trend that’s not restricted to Israel. In the United States and the United Kingdom, COVID-19 has “become a disease of the unvaccinated, who are predominantly young”, says Joshua Goldstein, a demographer at the University of California, Berkeley.
 
The Delta Variant Is the Symptom of a Bigger Threat: Vaccine Refusal - The New York Times
‘Ridiculous’: Vaccine Myths Cripple U.S. Uptake as Delta Surges - Bloomberg
@EBHarrington on COVID+ pandemic deniers & anti-vaxxers
 
National Demographic Analysis Tables: 2020 (census.gov)
 
 
中國行動的終結
The Justice Department’s China Initiative Threatens America’s Innovative Edge (foreignpolicy.com)
中國行動計劃(CHINA INITIATIVE)到底是什麽?
U.S. moves to drop visa fraud charges against Chinese researcher | Reuters
中美科技戰華裔科學家首當其衝, 象牙塔內的間諜疑雲 - BBC News 中文
 
言論自由和《羊村十二勇士》
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-police-arrest-five-over-childrens-books-depicting-protesters-as-sheep-11626965344
https://www.sohu.com/a/444394140_162522